[BimaThug Memorial Thread] The Myth of the Rockets and the McGrady Trade

Rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated. :grin:

Thanks, CH, for putting this information together in the framework of "how much room do the Rockets have to play with under the luxury tax". Hopefully, this will educate others to the true constraints with which the Rockets are dealing.

But "Memorial"????

 

Thanks very much for the post. It answered some lingering questions for me.

 

You know what else would be great? If Sacramento, in a separate deal, traded Tyreke Evans and Omri Casspi to the Rockets in exchange for Brian Cook and David Andersen.

But that ain't happening either.

 

I think the Rockets should trade T-Mac and Andersen for Dalembert and Iggy. Make Philly cover Sam's trade kicker as part of the deal. Don't pickup the options for Hayes and Dorsey next year to save some salary. Either get rid of Battier (for Blake and Outlaw's expiring contracts this season?) and sign Wafer or let Scola walk to get under LT for next season. Another scenario is to go over the LT and resign Scola and Lowry, but to minimize, as much as possible, the amount the team goes over the LT. If you go to hoopshype and look at team salaries, 7 of the top 10 teams salary wise are all highly competitive ball clubs.

 

That's a relief, what would we do without BimaThug.

 

Doesn't the "pain free" zone expand slightly with our number one cheerleader, Brian Cook's expiring contract?

 

I think what this all boils down to is what you think this team can grow into. If you think the current members of this team in combination with Yao, a couple draft picks, and a possible marginal free agent can compete over the next few years, then standing pat is the best solution.

I just don't feel that way. I agree with some posters that we need another, preferably more consistent, creator in the starting lineup, be it from FA or trade.

To Carl Herrera and BimaThug: You guys know your stuff. You've provided a wealth of information on these topics and it's greatly appreciated.

I just wonder what you guys would like to have happen with all this in a perfect feasible scenario.

I know Morey has found some great players in the late 1st/early 2nd round and he's snagged some guys in trades, but that's not how you typically find the game changers. I know there are exceptions, but typically you need to find them in the lottery or via trade.

 

Great recap.

There's an obvious problem this brings up. 2nd tier players in this league, not on the rookie scale, all get paid around $10 million or so. I'm talking the Iguodala's, Butlers, Kevin Martin's of the world. Using the above logic, you can then almost entirely discount getting one of those players back in return, because, why would a team trade such a player unless they were also trading away more salary cap relief, or getting something of real value back in return? They wouldn't. The Sixers wouldn't trade, for example, Iguodala plus $10 million of expiring contracts for TMac, because they could and should just keep Iguodala and let their expiring contracts expire. Maybe, if you find a team really strapped financially, as the deadline expires, some team might be willing to do this just to slash the salary of the player with value, even though they;d be getting nothing meaningful in return (i.e. - Philly might say well, it isn't working with Iguodala anyway and sure he's a solid player, but here's an opportunity to roll with a much lower salary figure and start afresh)...but doesn't seem likely.

And if your assumptions are correct, the Rockets won't be willing to take on any more than that 1 players salary anyway. So that doesn't leave you with a lot of interesting scenarios, even if you were presented a great deal.

To continue down the Philly route just because, let's say they offer Iggy and Speights, but you also have to take Dalembert, and in return you give up TMac and say Taylor - talent wise, an awesome deal, really. Well, you'd be taking back $26 million of salary for next year, and even if say, you don't pick up Chuck Hayes option, for next year, you are basically at the luxury tax threshold, meaning you can't resign Scola, Lowry a draft pick or use the MLE without going over the luxury tax cap. Maybe you say to yourself, Speights effectively takes the place of Scola and Hayes - and it could be true, he's young and averages 12 and 5 in just 21 mpg and is 6'10 so can slide into PF or C spots, but still that's giving up 2 starters on a front-line that, if Yao doesn't come back immediately to his old form, you'd basically have Landry, Speights and Andersen. Plus, you are now without a backup PG, when PG has finally become a position of strength.

Basically, you have a playoff team again, but a championship team?

The deal is, the Lakers are spending over $90 million this year. The Celtics $85 million. The Cavs $80 million. The Magic $81 million. The Nuggets $75 million. The Mavericks $87 million. The Spurs $81 million. The Suns $75 million.

Championship caliber teams seem to be spending over the luxury tax limit. Does that mean we're screwed if Les doesn't just open up the checkbook every year? Not necessarily. The Hawks salary seems to be at $66 million, the Blazers apparently at $57 million (all #s per Hoopshype) - of course, how many people really expect the Hawks or Blazers to win a championship? Do I think it's possible - for a team that isn't overspending like the ones mentioned to be assembled and win it all? Yes. But it would take the league's best GM and a good bit of luck.

It's just hard to beat a team like the Lakers and not because they have Kobe - they've had Kobe the whole time and don't win every year, though he certainly helps deep in the playoffs - but because to Kobe's $23 million they added Gasol's $17 million and Bynum's $12.5 million and Odom's $7.5 million and Artest's $6 million - they have $65 million tied up in 5 players, not including any PG's...they win because they overspend.

I don't expect Les to overspend like that. But if an opportunity arises to acquire a player of Iguodala's stature, and it means acquiring a Dalembert, I could see Les allowing that and still resigning Scola and Lowry and a draft pick and using some of the MLE and just paying some luxury tax next year if he really thought that was a championship team - and with Yao back, Lowry, Brooks, Landry and Chase a year older and better, and a hopefulyl Chase-like rookie and serviceable MLE or partial MLE player, isn't that a really really really good team? After all, Les has certainly saved money on TMac with the insurance. Some nifty wheeling and dealing during the year - get rid of a Dorsey and Taylor, maybe move Andersen or don't spend all that much with the MLE or trade your draft pick for a future pick, and Les isn't going that far in luxury tax territory - at least not so far as to make it a complete impossibility.

 

Great points JayZ. You've got to be willing to spend a little.

 

Yes, CH already accounted for all expiring contracts, including Cook's.

Daryl Morey has always said that his goal is to acquire as many "assets" as he can and that these "assets" can be used to acquire even better assets.

I think that whoever Morey takes with the [#18-#20?] pick could become an asset.

I think that a re-signed Kyle Lowry at a reasonable salary is an asset. Same holds true for Luis Scola. Likewise, Trevor Ariza, a quality young player locked into a long-term contract as a reasonable salary, is an asset. Chase Budinger under contract for three more years after this at a near-minimum salary is a marvelous asset.

Carl Landry on a $3M salary next year is a tremendous asset. Aaron Brooks on a $2M salary next year is a terrific asset.

Even David Andersen, whose contract is only partially guaranteed for $185k in 2011-12 (allowing another team to instantly shed up to $3.27M off its payroll), will be an interesting asset in the summer of 2011.

My point is that Morey is collecting these assets with a mind towards turning them into better assets. Is Andre Iguodala a "better asset"? Maybe. Is Iguodala handcuffed with Samuel Dalembert's contract a "better asset"? I don't think so, and I would imagine that Morey would agree with me.

Like DD likes to (conveniently) say (especially when he's being asked to explain his enthusiasm for particular cap-killing deals), we don't know how many dominoes will fall with Morey's grand scheme.

But I think he's doing a marvelous job compiling those assets.

 

I can't see Scola or lowry not be back next season, those two just too valueable for us. The only one i can see who may be shiped is Bitter. However, his value is very tricky. He maybe the missing piece for a lot of contender teams, which Rocket does not want to give a favor; and for bad teams Bitter just not the guy who can give big numbers.

 

I disagree, and I think Morey's opinion in this particular case would be almost entirely dependent on Les' willingness to overspend. As I noted above, you kind of have to overspend a little to compete with the "big boys"

In the rarest of scenarios, you might find a Pau Gasol type deal, where Memphis literally just gave him away to get rid of his salary, knowing they were giving up a great player for effectively nothing but saying the heck with it, we're not winning anytime soon anyway, Gasol will keep getting older anyway, if we're not going to win with him, we can not win without him. And even with that, though it wasn't clear how good he'd be at the time, Memphis did get at least one solid asset in return in Marc Gasol. So fingers crossed, that happens, and Washington will give us Butler plus Haywood, James and Miller (all on expiring deals) in exchange for McGrady and maybe some little thing of value (Chase, Lowry, multiple first round picks? - something that would prick, but not be a complete blow) as that way they get another $10 million off their cap net year, even though that $10 million wasn't really being overspent. But that seems to be the rarest of scenarios.

AND, even with that deal for LA, they still had to spend $90 million in salary to win a championship.

Dalembert's deal only lasts one more year. He's not great, but he is a legit 7 footer. If you do that deal, and go over the luxury threshold to try and win a championship and resign Lowry, Scola, pick up Chuck's option, etc., you're lineup is:

PG: Brooks, Lowry
SG: AI, Chase
SF: Battier, Ariza
PF: Scola, Landry, Hayes
C: Yao, Andersen, Dalembert

That doesn't include another draft pick or using any of the MLE, and already that is a DEEP, talented team with "star" type players in Iggy and Yao and the perfect role players in heck, everyone else. That team, HEALTHY, ABSOLUTELY can win a championship.

It's Les' money, but I think that IS turning good assets into better ones.

If you're not willing to do that, really what's the point of stockpiling good assets anyways....just to hope and hope and hope you get a gift from some strapped team and stupid GM and even still then hope and hope and hope that it's enough?

Cause again, Dalembert ain't great, and would be older, and for someone of his production you'd want to spend much less...BUT you're simply too short. Even playing as it seems to be uninspired, he gets over 8 boards and 2 blocks a game in his 24 minutes. He wouldn't get nearly that time here, but in the playoffs, absolutely he'd be helpful and used.

 

This is why I believe Budinger is an 'asset' of greater (perceived' value than basketball value. Therefore, I believe he will be included in many scenaria under discussion.

CH's (and the memorialized BT's) analyses demonstrate why I remain convinced the single best McGrady move, for all parties, is Minny:

Minny gives Blount/Cardinal/Sessions (or Wilkins, if they insist) + Rubio
Rox give McGrady and Bud

Minny gets a marquee name, and the chance to build a campaign around him with a 3-year (?) extension; the FA they can never attract)

Rox get Lowry insurance with Sessions and the upside of RR. The Rox also get under the lux cap this season while protecting next season's roster + @6mm in TE.

Ooops, why would Wolves take on so much additional salary? 1st, the Rox throw in $3mm. 2nd, they throw in a 2nd Rounder (2011) which is now worth +/-$2mm in the 'new' NBA draft. That is 5 of the 6 million, and all the buzzzzzzz they can handle locally, on Sportscenter etc (til TMac morphs back into McG, of course).

The i-deal deal for all.

 

Man, Bima always tells it like it is.

 

Bima, wouldn't Dalembert's expiring contract next year make it even more likely that Les would be willing to gamble on paying LT for a championship shot...knowing he could have Morey try to move him to get under the LT if it isn't working out?

 

They have been after Dalambert according to the announcers that broadcast their games.

No he doesn't he buries his thoughts in the numbers and takes them as an end all, when that is far from the truth.

If you are looking ONLY at the numbers you are only looking at half the equation.....sure it is an important half, but that does NOT mean it stops or hinders a deal, there are lots of ways to get things done, knowing the salary cap is just the first step, but it is not the be all, end all of trades etc.

DD