Have you been watching the games? I don't mean that condescendingly -- just curious, as I don't think we've had many "lucky" wins, other than maybe that crazy Johnson game-winner in Minny. I do think we've been grinding out Ws in close games through defensive effort, getting stops when they're absolutely necessary.
We won those close games by not just getting stops, but also by hitting shots. The latter definitely has a "luck" component to it.
Eh.... we can agree to disagree. I wouldn't characterize most of these as us having just gotten lucky.
We're an injury depleted team still winning at an unbelievable clip through defense and execution. No "13 in 35" victories so far this season. Just smart, focused ball.
Luck plays a role everywhere. More so in some situations than others. I'm saying that teams that rely on winning a lot of close games are also relying more on luck. Take yesterday's game, for example. We won that game because Harden hit a long, contested 3-pointer in regulation. If he doesn't hit that shot, we very likely lose. Making those kind of shots of course depends on skill, but luck as well. Its not like Harden will hit that shot 100% of the time.
By that standard, every shot taken, whether it's the last possession or the first possession, has some element of luck. I don't think you'll hear anyone say Harden got lucky on that shot to send the game into OT. Not from Rockets fans, Kings fans, or human beings, in general. It's not like he made it by being triple teamed, hoisting it from midcourt with one hand. Now that shot would be considered lucky.
I'm waiting for the first real journalist to write an article where he attacks the media for: - showing their bias when not even including Harden in their MVP or top 2 guard spot in the league discussion - blindly hating on him for last year's defensive lack of effort - not acknowleding how hard it is to do what Harden is doing right now with so many injuries - hating on Houston just because Harden (and or Howard's) game is 'ugly' - disrespecting Harden who supposedly always runs into guys, baits defenders and is just a good player who gets to the line a lot.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>James Harden: 7-for-11 on game-tying and go-ahead FG in final 24 sec over last 2 seasons -- highest FG pct in NBA (min. 10 FGA)</p>— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ESPNStatsInfo/status/543397674427633665" data-datetime="2014-12-12T13:31:16+00:00">December 12, 2014</a></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Rockets are 7-0 in games decided by 5 pts or less. They have been very lucky. Morey himself said that these are 50/50 games even for very good teams. And the NBA's data confirms this. There is just luck involved in these games. For example, ven with Harden being as "clutch" as humanly possible last night, the Rockets still had to dodge the bullet that was the Rudy Gay's jumper that went halfway in before bouncing out. But with the West as tight as it is, I'll take all the wins we can get without Howard (and other injured guys).
Hey, the Rockets' entire second title basically came down to Wesley Person's Game 5 buzzer beater going halfway down and then coming out. That's a part of basketball.
The NBA data confirms what? It couldn't possibly confirm whatever point you are making. In games decided by 5 points or less the league average is a 50% chance of winning. Clearly one team must lose. Is there not such a thing as teams being better at winning close games? I doubt that.
While the actual last second shot is luck, the balance on the defensive end leans towards the better defensive team (obviously) whilst on the offensive end it leans towards the best individual shot creator.
By "luck", I am not referring to only the occurrence of a very low probability random event. Rather, the lower the probability, the higher the luck. A shot that had a 50% chance to go in has some amount of luck attached to it when it goes in. But its part skill, part luck. The higher your percentages are as a shooter, the more I would attribute it to skill versus luck.
It is especially in sports. Harden has the skill to hit that shot and the Kings foolishly gave him the opportunity to hit it. You can say it was luck that the Kings (Derrick Williams I think?) gave him space to shoot but I'd say that was just bad on their part and outplaying your opponent is not luck. If a guy is dumb enough to give him that shot then you take it as much as you can.
I agree that close games have a high amount of luck to them. But a lot of close games came because we really lacked a bench. Take the Phoenix game. It looked like a comfortable win for most of the game, but became close because we just ran out of gas. Memphis game, Dallas game, all similar in that we had trouble late due more to depth issues than talent issues. If we were mostly full squad, I'd be a lot more worried about our point differential. But because of the injuries, I feel we are what our record indicate because our issues will be fixed simply with time.
