Big takeaway from yesterday, if it isn’t already obvious

You can see it in their body language. They get in their own heads way too easily. Tucker and Harden especially.

 

An 0-12 stretch is really not all that unlikely, not even in the same universe as 0-27

 

You're right. Would be interesting to check how often the Rockets have missed 12 3s in a row this season.

 

What is obvious is that this team will not beat the Warriors unless Harden quits trying to prove why he deserves to be the MVP of the league and starts playing to win games. What is obvious is that he needs to work on his catch and shoot drills, moving without the ball, develop a lateral side step move to his right to shake off his left hip trolls......what is obvious is until Harden proves he can be a real playmaker off the ball, the Rockets chances to get past the 2nd round are not strong!

 

I don't know a quick way to go through it and see how often it actually happened, but doing some quick math, you'd expect an 0-12 stretch to happen about 7 or 8 times per season (82 games) assuming 45 3pa per game at 35%. So that's not unusual. Compared to 0-27 which you would expect to happen every hundred years.

Disclaimer: I am aware shooting 3s isn't the same as generating random numbers, this doesn't account for defenders or tired legs or whatever else, it's just a rough estimate to give context.

 

Had all day to think about it. My big takeaway:

Spoiler

Staying up until 1am for a loss to Utah sucks.

 

Yeah, good points. I went ahead and check it out using the Event Finder tool at basketball reference. I plotted the results here:



It happened only 3 times in the regular season. That it would happen in a playoff game under defensive stress in just game 4 does make me think that playoff conditions make miss streaks like this more likely. You're playing against a good defensive team that has studied how to deny your offense good looks and you end up forcing threes over and over again under duress -- I think those shots just aren't the same.

 

Did you all miss the part that the starting center was sick and had his worst game of the season?

He played but in the thin air of Salt Lake it got the better of him.

Think he will rebound and Rockets in 5.

 

Game 7 is also one game. We lost becoz 0-27 on three.

Rockets just never learn something from their loss, including our idiot coach.

They just forget the loss and make same mistakes again.

 

So MDA even not calling a timeout to give him some rest?

 

yeah what are they thinking. they should just change their identity. that's what the great teams do

 

Shooting is streaky because there is a psychological side of it. It is not just random averages. When you miss/hit, or your teammates miss/hit a lot, it tends to affect your rhythm and confidence.

 

There has never been a champion who relies on the 3 as much as we do. It’s still an unproven strategy for winning a championship and I’m not sure it can beat GS 4 times out of 7. I think our chances are better with a more balanced approach.

But hey- Harden is the perfect player to test the theory with. I guess we will see if it ever ends up being enough to bring home a ring.

 

I think the one take away we can have from this game is that Jazz fans are even bigger a-holes than we thought they were. They had their stupid-ass 'stop the flop' signs while Rubio and the Jazz players were flopping like crazy.

 

you cant win championships shooting jumpers. oh wait

there's only 1 team in the past 2 seasons thats given GS any sort of trouble and that "strategy" is what is doing it. How people seem to forget GS was just on the brink of elimination before houston's elite player that came to here to push hou over the top, got hurt is puzzling.

 

I never said that. I want them to take the wide open jumpers. That is a proven strategy to win championships in today’s NBA. Take the wide open shot down the stretch when the 3 isn’t falling and everyone is tired from a grueling series. KD does it well. It’s like a layup. Curry and Klay can go ice cold but KD just keeps moving the scoreboard. Harden could do it that too. Especially the way he’s being guarded right now.

 

i didn't say you did. its a reference to a historical belief until obviously times have changed

people need to stop with this unproven strategy narrative. no it isn't. its proven to be able to work. its proven to be able to beat this current GS team. how ironic, more and more teams are adjusting their teams towards it. Just because losses happen doesn't mean it doesn't work. that's just part of the game. There's no such thing as a perfect season. if these losses make people upset, that's just too bad. when you're up 3-0, you're clearly doing something right. But apparently a loss takes all of that away.

the formula is there. it comes down to execution and health. it has nothing to do with the "strategy"

 

Bro GS only works because they have 3 of the top 10 shooters of all time on their team. Two of which are number 1 and number 2. And no I’m not exaggerating

 

Live by the three die by the three