I would say it is just as likely that OU would stay as go if UT left. They certainly are not married at the hip and not exactly on the best of terms. OU would need to take OK St. if it were to leave. Big assumptions all the way around.
UT and OU are fine. Boren just runs his mouth but heels when the OU board of regents tell him to. They each make half a million from the Red River game just by being there and they split revenue from ticket sales. That doesn't' factor into the brand awareness in texas and the country from the game itself. The economics and success for both schools are tied to one another in a lot of different ways.
OU and OkSt stay together. I don't think OU cares about Texas half as much as Longhorn folk seem to think.
Your first statement is correct. Based on some of what I read a couple of years ago, you are dead wrong on #2. OU is totally fixed on UT. The only reason OU and OSU stay together is because Oklahoma politicians demand it. There was talk the reason UT & OU didn't go to the Pac 12 was because they wouldn't accept OSU as part of the package. Nobody wants OSU. If UT left the Big 12, the only reason OU wouldn't also bolt is because whatever conference they wanted to join has to take OSU (because of OK politicians, not because OU gives a care about OSU).
I mean, that's what UT people have to be hoping for right? If not then the Big 12 will be just fine (and probably better off) without UT. Lose UT? So what? Lose OU? That's a problem.
Asked you this on the previous page and interested in your answer. You say what's wrong with the conference is because of UTs nonsense. My question is why would the conference and schools allow it? Why would they allow Nebraska and A&M walk instead of standing up to UT and say that's enough? The fact is they didn't stop any of it and that should tell you more than anything we can post. Also should note that I think losing either UT or OU would be the end of the conference.
At some point they will. UT brings in a lot of money but I don't think they'll let them kill the conference by refusing expansion and further preventing a conference network. You lose UT, you lose money, you lose OU, you lose competitiveness. You can recover from losing the money UT brings in so long as you stay competitive when it comes to the sports end. The Big 12 has enough competitive programs to where they can "lose" UT and the baggage they bring and say alive. Of course, the best possible scenario would be UT playing ball and no longer hurting the conference and so far that's what they've held out hope for but they can't hold out that hope forever. The conference is currently dying.
If UT goes Indy, the Big 12 does enter a death spiral where the B1G, ACC, and SEC would basically tear apart the carcass like a bunch of rabid hyenas. WVU probably gets absorbed into the ACC. OU and OSU probably head to the SEC. Maybe TCU? If not, OU and KU go B1G. Very small chance both KU and KSU go B1G. Iowa State, KSU, Tech, Baylor, and TCU would be in a very precarious position if this all went to hell in a handbag. There's actually a chance that Colorado and Nebraska could be wooed back into the B12 if Texas left. As I understand it, Colorado is unhappy being locked into the Pacific timezone, and Nebraska is unhappy just being another face in the crowd in the B1G.
I think the more likely scenario would be that the Big 12 would just add one more team andit would be business as usual. It's not like in the Big East where all of the competitive schools left, it would be one non-competitive school leaving and taking a lot of money with them. It would be a setback, but the conference would recover due to having good programs that are competitive in the sports that matter which would eventually bring the revenue back to where they want it.
In terms adding to the media money pie, the B12 breakdown is probably something like... UT 35% OU 25% Everybody else 5% (x8) You don't just just "replace UT". Every other P5 conference is watching this Big 12 drama with great intent. They've explored every scenario and know what they will do in the event of each. You can bet your last dollar that all of those plans involve pouncing on any worthwhile, disaffected programs in the event of B12 upheaval. The idea that programs like OU or KU would sit around and just say "meh, invite Houston/Cincinnati/UConn and call it a day" is absurdly incorrect.
As a Colorado alum and local in the area, I have never once heard of what you are saying. It also doesn't make any sense. Why would the pacific time zone be any different than being locked into the central time zone? CU and its fans love the pac 12, the conference just fits our school a lot better than the Big 12 did. I am almost certain we have ZERO interest in rejoining the Big 12
The gripes are the same that the rest of the PAC has. Being locked into the West coast is like being banished to another world. The Gulf and East coast is where the majority of the eyeballs, recruits, and monies are. When CU split from the B12, it basically ended a 60 year run of being the Western-most school in conferences that were centered around Texas and the Heartland. Convincing kids from Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, etc to come play for the Buffs is a lot more difficult when they'll be playing teams from LA, Washington, and Oregon with 10PM kickoffs. Granted the PAC 12 network is definitely a better situation than what Colorado would be getting now, a partially reformed Big 12 would be comparable. While I have no doubts the fans love the new conference (I would too if I were them), the brass would probably prefer to be back in the pre-2010 iteration of the Big 12 (even if it were minus UT).
Not sure the ACC would want WVU. I don't recall any talk of that a few of years ago but maybe it was on the table. Seems like WVU would have chosen the ACC if they had that chance. I doubt very much the SEC would take OSU. No conference in the country wants them. TCU is an interesting thought but I doubt it. B1G wouldn't want KSU. At the same time, not sure KU could go anywhere without them. Iowa State, KSU, Tech, Baylor, and TCU would be up a creek without a paddle if the Big 12 collapsed. Nebraska should have known what it means to get in a bigger pound when they joined the B1G.
At some point maybe. But until then, there is nothing to base your comments on. Saying that a conference can survive or improve goes against everything we've seen in realignment/expansion the last decade. There isn't a single available school or group of schools that could replace the brand loss of UT. That alone would destroy the conference and probably the single most reason why we are where we are.
Greg Flugar (an apparent Big 10 insider) sent out a tweet storm on Saturday night after some meeting he had with his contact. I normally don't buttsniff these guys, but Flugar has been pretty consistently correct and level-headed about conference goings-on since the great 2011 apocalypse. Some highlights: -OU and FOX at one end of the negotiating table; UT and ESPN at the other -If OU or UT leave the Big 12, the other will certainly follow (at the behest of the above mentioned) -If OU leaves, they take KU with them to the B1G -If UT leaves, they likely do some kind of quasi-independent setup via the ACC (like ND) -Regardless of outcome RRR will continue (too much $$$ at stake) -OU offering GOR extension as olive branch to UT -The linchpin to all of this is the LHN being folded into the B12N -OU does have 7 votes for expansion (confirming Cinci paper article) -FOX pushing Florida expansion (UCF, USF, etc), ESPN blocking -ESPN pushing Westward expansion (BYU, CSU, etc), FOX blocking -Houston no longer being considered -Cinci/UConn or Cinci/Memphis final candidates
Thanks for posting. A few things: - So if UT leaves, OU follows them to the ACC but with full membership? That seems kinda off. - The B1G would officially have to waive their AAU requirement which might not be a big deal since NU lost their status. But assuming Ok.St. And OU are a package deal, that's a big change to their conference academically speaking. - If OU and KU are package deal and Texas follows, that only leaves 1 spot for Ok.St., Tech, Baylor, etc...A few teams would get royally screwed. - Wonder if the final candidates are a result of the impasse between Fox and ESPN. Think it's kinda odd that both would say fine, no one gets what they want.
I think I worded that kind of poorly. What I meant was that if one leaves the Big 12, the other will also leave. OSU not part of the deal. Don't think the AAU thing has ever been a written/official requirement. Pretty much everybody not named Oklahoma and Texas have a significant chance of getting royally screwed if this whole thing goes sideways. Such is life in the Big Inequality conference. This is my impression. In the end it wasn't about what anyone wanted, it was more about what they didn't want.
Just to make things that much more fun... I wonder if Texas is just waiting on the new B1G deal to go through. Rumor is that it could completely change the CFB landscape and I could see Texas waiting it out to see what happens. Honestly no point in committing to one thing or another right now.
