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Beverley's defense is a fraud

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Harden's beard, Nov 30, 2016.

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Is Beverley's defense overrated?

  1. Yes

  2. No

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. Snow Villiers

    Snow Villiers Member

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    Bev is average. He can really piss you off throughout the season with some silly plays but his contract is acceptable.
     
  2. RESINator

    RESINator Member

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    There was one play that really pissed off about Beverley. Last night we were down >10 and a timeout was called. Their center had the ball with both hands and Beverley proceeds to swipe down on the ball and impose his will out of frustration. Ref calls a technical. I'm tired of the tough guy act. He needs to put his mind in the general instead of making dumb mistakes like that.
     
    xtruroyaltyx likes this.
  3. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    ugh, your first link is basketball-reference, so I thought you wanted me to use that. Now you're saying NBA.com. OK, fine.

    Did you notice nba.com lets you filter by last games. Here's Bev's rankings to demonstrate skewing by small sample:

    Last game
    Bev = 126 DRtg = Best starter rating
    Capela and Ariza had 142 DRtg
    Brewer astonishing 106​
    Last 2 games
    Bev = 118 DRtg = Best starter rating
    Brewer = 99 = Best rating​
    Last 3 games
    Bev = 113 = Best starter rating
    Brewer = 95 = Best rating​
    Last 4 games
    Bev = 114 = Best starter rating
    Brewer = 100 = Best rating​
    Last 5 games
    Bev = 116 = Better than Capela and Ariza (Ryno and Harden are best starters) lulz
    Brewer = 100 = 2nd best rating
    Nene = 93 = Best rating​
    Last 6 Games
    Bev = 114 = Better than Capela and Ariza (Ryno and Harden are best starters) lulz
    Brewer = 101 = 2nd best rating
    Nene = 98 = Best rating​
    All Beverley's Games
    Bev = 113 = Better than Capela and Ariza (Ryno and Harden are best starters) lulz
    Brewer = 100 = Best Rating​

    [FACT CHECKER ON]

    So, what do you say now about that DRtg stat and blaming Beverley for something

    • Over the last 4 games, Bev is our best starter on defense
    • Over the last 7 games, Harden is our best starter, lulz (great Stat!)
    • Like I say, good luck with your science experiment
    [FACT CHECKER OFF]

    Your nba.com link says our four worst players on defense are Bev, Ariza, KJ and Capela. So, you're going with that?
     
  4. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    Let me offer an explanation that completely refutes saying Bev, Ariza and Capela are our worst starting defenders, and KJ is worst bench player.
    1. The most eye-popping stat on NBA.com is Patrick Beverley is #1 in the freaking NBA for ORtg at 121.3. Curry, Klay and Durant are #2, 3 and 4 ... at a distant 117.6.
    2. Does that mean Bev is a great offensive player. No.
    3. But can we just ignore our incredible ORtg when Bev is on the court and only look at DRtg to measure his defense? No.
    4. Here's why.
      1. We put a lot of pressure on the opponent to match our ORtg
      2. We force the opponents to play our game. And we do so at an incredible +8 Net when Bev is on the floor
      3. This is the game plan, and the Bev ORtg shows were are getting better at it. And defensive game plan is partly to hide Harden and Ryno's defense (which we have apparently achieved since Bev came back, since Harden and Ryno are leading the starters in DRtg over last 7 games) lulz
      4. Thus, saying Bev, Ariza, and Capela are our worst defenders based on DRtg is highly suspect.
      5. Who knows ... our ORtg may continue to rise with Bev back, and our DRtg might too, a little. Or it might level off and go back down.
    • Statistically, if Bev keeps up his best rating over last 4 games, and better than Ariza and Capela since coming back, he will pass them and all starters no matter if Team DRtg goes up or not.
    • The Net is what matters to D'Antoni ... and the starters are still killing it.
    And fwiw: Opp has been shooting an incredible 41% from 3 over last 7 games...roughly 37% before that. That could be a glitch, but certainly Bev isn't solely to blame for that, since he has our best DRtg for a starter over last 4 games

    Sounds like subjective eye-test to me. I thought you told me not to make comments like this. You're all over the place. Basically, you're just saying you are right, and no one can disagree.

    But I just blew up your use of nba.com stats. And we can do this eye-test thing too, just let me know what games to provide video for.
     
    BigMaloe and LivinLikeLarry like this.
  5. Harden's beard

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    Stop wasting everyone's precious time with this kind of nonsense. All you've proved is that our team defense as a whole went to sh*t ever since Bev came back, and the only reason he has better DRtg than any other starters for the last few games is because he shares some minutes with the second unit who usually faces inferior opponent (which also explains Brewer or Nene's DRtg.)

    When Bev is in the starting lineup we as a team suffer defensively, and this conclusion is drawn based on how our defense looked before his inclusion into the starting five and after that. So obviously something is going on with the team chemistry, regardless of Beverly's individual defense (which I think has been poor but whatever.) The fact that Bev has the worst DRtg is secondary; what's more important is that we as a team is giving up a lot more points per possession since his return, which you didn't address or refute at all.
     
    FANfrom86toNow likes this.
  6. kjayp

    kjayp Contributing Member

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    As the saying goes... a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing....

    I hate how much of the fan base has turned into a bunch of stat geeks... it's like we've got us a buncha Morey wanna be's running around trying to show how intelligent and knowledgeable they are by regurgitating a bunch of stats and analytics like they are the end all conclusion...

    I don't mean to be disrespecting anyone if that's your thing... but c'mon... there are plenty of things that numbers don't necessarily show... Stats are a tool to utilize in the overall evaluation process - NOT the final conclusion...

    Once again, no disrespect to anyone... :)
     
    heypartner and FTW Rockets FTW like this.
  7. Harden's beard

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    I'll just ignore the first part since it's riddled with pure conjecture and personal bias. Must be fun livin' in the la-la land.

    The only reason I described what's wrong with Bev's defense in words is because I've already laid out the most objective evidence that exists to support my case. If that didn't persuade you, fine, I can also play 'watch this video and hear my personal opinion' game - which you seem to prefer - but obviously people like you aren't going to change their minds based on that. But at least I can make my case in various ways; all you've got is that 'Bev is a good defender' empty narrative, which has been debunked numerous times before.
     
  8. Harden's beard

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    This is a classic straw man. Stats are preferred because no one is going to be convinced based on just words or rhetoric alone. If I say "Beverley sucks at defense" does that settle the debate? Obviously not, and I've already posted videos and gave my explanation as to what's wrong with Beverley's defense. And if you still disagree, what gives? At least stats can be used to reach some kind of consensus, if the eye test results bear different conclusions for each individual.

    Look, we won't be having this debate if we all saw the same thing in Beverley's defense in the first place. Obviously that's not the case, hence the numbers and stats.
     
    #108 Harden's beard, Nov 30, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
    MorningZippo likes this.
  9. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    No, by using your defensive stat at nba.com:
    • I proved that Brewer has our best DRtg for the whole season. You do remember he started for many games.
    • I also proved that Bev, KJ, Ariza and Capela are our worst defenders using your stat.
    • I also proved that Harden and Anderson are our two best defensive starters using your stat.
    So, you're going with that? Answer the question.

    The individual DRtg stat is meaningless.

    As for Bev's stats being skewed by playing with the second unit sometimes, well, there you are cherry picking again. You said Beverley's League Leading ORtg of 121 is due to playing with the starters, but you're also saying his DRtg is due to not playing with the starters.

    As for not understanding my explanation of why Ariza and Capela are worst starters in DRtg over entire season and Harden and Ryno are best, well, you explain then. My explanation is we get the other team to play our game. But we do it better. Does it mean we have a better defense than the opponent, because they have a worse DRtg against us, no. Does it mean we are horrible, because we do that every game, so have a bad DRtg. Maybe....lulz. But it is our game plan, and the DRtg is not the fault of Ariza, Capela and Bev.
     
    Mathloom likes this.
  10. Harden's beard

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    I've already said individual DRtg is not the focus here; my main point is that our team DRtg totally collapsed since Bev's return, and DRtg does reflect team defense pretty accurately. Now, whether or not you attribute that to Beverley's presence is up for debate, but the onus is on you to prove that this is just a coincidence, because common sense dictates that when a player joins the team and that team suddenly plays worse defensively, you have to be suspicious of what's going on there. Especially when that player is not a good defender at all, and has earned a spot in the starting five line-up purely based on faulty reputation.

    Again, if the variable was Harden instead of Beverley, you wouldn't be making all these excuses since the source of the problem would seem pretty obvious in that case. Because of 'Bev = good defender' BS narrative, people like you find it difficult to just simply admit to themselves that Beverley's return might be disrupting our defensive team chemistry.
     
    #110 Harden's beard, Nov 30, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 30, 2016
  11. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

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    HeyP, I think you are wasting your time bud.
     
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  12. Easy

    Easy Boban Only Fan
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    Another Harden fan thread that tries to use stats to prove some individual defensive performance. smh.

    So the narrative now is that Harden is a decent defender and Beverley's defense is a "fraud." Maybe the story will turn into something like, "Beverley needs Harden in the back court to keep the defense from being destroyed!"

    The on/off numbers do not account for opposing lineups. Not to mention the small sample size as so many posters have pointed out.
     
  13. thedude077

    thedude077 Member

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    I think he is overrated.
     
  14. kyle7758521

    kyle7758521 Member

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    Yes, this actually tells every thing about Bev.
     
  15. Harden's beard

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    Another delusional Beverley homer just making shi* up. Where did I ever say Harden is a decent defender? In fact, I wouldn't be this much concerned about Bev's overrated defense if Harden himself was a plus defender. We all know he's not, that's why we can't afford another minus or mediocre defender on the back court, GET IT? and people still wonder why our perimeter defense sucks, every team has a sub par defender in the guard position, that doesn't automatically make them a crappy defensive team if players can offset each other's shortcomings, but we have frauds like Beverley to supposedly cover up Harden's deficiency, when in reality Beverley himself is a liability out there, compounding the problem furthermore, smh.

    BTW, I already destroyed your lousy take on the eye-test vs stats remember? I bet you think Beverley is the best defender in the world just because it 'looks' that way to you eyes, with all his meaningless hustling and bustling. No evidence to back it up as usual. No wonder people are getting sick and tired of this, ironically you would be the first person to point out Harden's lack of defense if our defense went to shi* the moment Harden joined our starting line-up, the connection there would be pretty obvious, no? but high-and-mighty lord Beverley could do no wrong on defense, so let's search elsewhere and blame it on the usual suspect even though the culprit is right there in your face. Give me a freakin' break.
     
    #115 Harden's beard, Nov 30, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
    And1redux likes this.
  16. MorningZippo

    MorningZippo Member

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    So basically, Beverly is definitely the key to our offense, E.Go is the key to our defense, and capela and Ariza are turnstiles.
     
  17. Dankstronaut

    Dankstronaut Way, way out here.
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    Overrated, yeah.

    Bad defender, no. Anyone who displays pride or effort on defense is a good defender. There is so precious little of that in today's game and on today's rockets squad so the guys who do it get extra credit.

    Every team needs a couple guys who will pound their chests, get under opposing skins and kinda be an A hole basically. Bev is that, although he does it in some boneheaded ways. I would always revel in the dirty work on a court. I'm not the most talented guy out there but you were damn sure going to match my effort and physicality or I was going to impose. Bev is facing NBA athletes though so there is only so much his frame can do....but he's a dirty work guy. just needs to check himself sometimes.
     
  18. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    So, I proved to you that individual DRtg is a faulty stat, and you agreed to remove that from "focus here." Now we both agree that Team DRtg is a perfectly fine stat. And what is causing an alleged downturn in that is the debate.

    OK, you asked for it. It is largely a coincidence based on small sample skewing, proven with Team DRtg stats.

    [​IMG]
    1. As you can see, aside from a 5 game stretch of Brewer starting, the Rockets Team DRtg is 26th-28th in the league
    2. In fact, in Bev's 1st 6 games the Team DRTg is the same as the whole year
    3. That last game is the worst of the year, so no way Bev should get blamed for that mess
    4. In fact, of the starters and EGo, Bev was best defender in that game by far
      1. The last line above has a simple adjustment to show the significant difference in score had the Harden, EGo, Ariza, Capela, and Anderson/Dekker 17minute lineups simply kept Utah to the same points per minute as Beverley's starting lineup did for 13 minutes.
      2. There was a 13 pt difference, which has a significant 1.7 Team DRtg difference for Bev's 7 Games.
    So, that chart above, and the mess of a last game, show that there is no way you can blame Bev for our Team DRtg Rankings. We only did well for a 5 game stretch. If you try to say that logic dictates that Bev's return caused a downturn (because that "was the only change"), then logic also dictates that MDA moving Brewer to starter caused the upturn (because that "was the only change.")

    Bottomline:
    [​IMG]
     
    #118 heypartner, Dec 1, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
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  19. Harden's beard

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    You didn't prove anything, I basically called you out on your pathological obsession with specifics while ignoring the larger picture - that our team DRtg collapsed with Bev's return. Nice try at evading my main point, but carry on.

    Ah invoking that ghost of coincidence again, panacea for the ignorant and statistically challenged.

    First of all, you didn't even get the basics right. Brewer only started 3 times this season, and Gordon started 8 times. If you actually do the calculations, we did post better DRtg during when Brewer started (103.0 with Brew vs 105.8 with Gordon) and maybe that's why coaches keep playing Brewer to the consternation of some people here. But more importantly, why separate that out? With or without Brew, we played much better defense than we did with Beverley in the starting line-up as you will see below.

    Secondly, I don't know what data you used, but based on my calculations we posted 107.7 DRtg in the first 6 games when Beverley has started, and that is according to nba.com such as this :

    http://stats.nba.com/game/#!/0021600219/advanced/

    3-4 point differential in DRtg isn't some negligible, trivial deviation from the norm and definitely should raise some eye-brows.

    (BTW, I'm 100% sure that your calculations are off because our defensive ranking didn't suddenly tank just because of that last Utah game. I check our DRtg ranking after each game, and I can assure you that our DRtg standing got progressively worse since Bev has joined our starting line-up.)

    Who is at fault for the last game debacle is debatable, and I would certainly concede Harden was part of the problem. But again, to suggest that Beverley was one of the best defenders in that game based off of a single game DRtg is laughably ridiculous, which is as equally preposterous as using daily +/- to decide who was the best player in that game. If an average individual DRtg is to be considered unreliable source of information, then single-game individual DRtg shouldn't even be brought up in this discussion.

    So you failed again. Try better next time.
     
    #119 Harden's beard, Dec 1, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2016
  20. OlajuwonFan81

    OlajuwonFan81 Member

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    What a terrible counter argument. His point is that the measure you are using to prove your point is completely flawed and he used clear examples as to why that is. Even if we are to use that measure then you could say that his offense is so good that he's still a productive player. Bottom line, that measure is dumb.
     
    heypartner likes this.

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