[Bball Prospectus] Outliers - NBA Usage Experiments

Does that go after Malcom Gladwell's system?

 

Between Ariza, Scola, and Brooks -- I think Brooks is the safe bet for being the primary scorer. Until McGrady returns.

You mean David Berri's system (Wins Produced)? No, its nothing like that.

 

wonder how they account for rookies.

 

my brain hurts.

 

Landry gets no respect. Adelman even admitted that Landry was our best post player.

Landry will be the leading scorer until T-Mac returns, or at least in the top 3.

 

My bad. I saw the title and thought of something. Well, Schoene-projection system. Intriguing.

 

Interesting finding. Maybe I've been wrong this whole time about players getting more efficient as their usage rate goes up. I don't think it's a linear relationship though, there seems to be a sweet spot in terms of minutes per game for a player to maximize their utility to the team--if you play too many minutes you get fatigued, but if you play too few you stay cold in the minutes that you are out there and never "settle" into the game.

 

All this article is saying is that Memphis has a bunch of ball hogs and Houston doesn't. The "Usage Fudge" for Memphis is .89, meaning each player will have to cut back on his ball-hogging by 11 percent. Houston's usage fudge is 1.11, meaning each player will have to spend 11 percent more time with the ball in his hands this season. I'm not a basketball stats whiz, but that's the way I interpreted the article.

 

spot on.

 

Yep, my money's on Brooks. And I also think he's going to be the big reason why the Rockets won't be as offensively challenged as many people think they will be. He really looks like he's going to average at least 20ppg, even though most don't project him to score that much. He has looked awfully good throughout the preseason and looks completely at home on the offensive end now.

I'm not even sure that the production from him will dip that much after McGrady returns. Adelman is going to give him the green light.

 

Brooks could definitely score almost 20 ppg. Watching him now, he looks more comfortable running the team than when he used to back up Rafer. He does a better job of creating plays for others while at the same time using his mismatches to get his own shot. As a backup, he always looked lost. Now he's running the show.

 

Usage isn't referring to minutes per game. It's a measure of player involvement (mostly via shot creation) per offensive possession. So Ariza is an example of a player who's been very efficient in a role where he wasn't asked to create shots. What happens to that efficiency as more scoring responsibility is thrust on him? If this preseason is any indication, the answer is it will go down.

 

I think that's a bit short sighted in the fact that scoring efficiency is not predicted by one factor, IE Lakers stars creating shots for him. There are other possible factors you can't predict yet, such as his own ability to create improving this season or the fact that the patented-Adelman motion offense could work better with his style of play and make him a better scoring option that at the Lakers. It could make him worse too or just not affect him at all.

 

What?!!?!?!?!?!?!??!

 

If by "better scoring option" you mean a more efficient scorer -- I'd say its possible, but unlikely. Maybe he worked really hard on the offseason and improved his overall offensive skills. Maybe the offense is yielding him very good scoring opportunities that weren't available in previous years.

But assuming he's essentially the same player he was last year, and assuming the offense isn't radically better suited for his skill-set, asking him to do more will likely lead to him doing more things he's less comfortable with. E.g., Having to make decisions off the dribble, taking more contested shots. A lower efficiency should be expected in that case.

 

Battier could be the x-factor. People forget that when Yao went out in the playoffs, it was the either Brooks, Scola or Battier that carried the team offensively.

 

Battier can't carry the team offensively,he can step up but he will need a lot of help from the others. Battier failed to do anything on the road in the playoffs offensively.You can look up the stats yourself. Aaron and Lowry will kick out the ball for him,but he won't get as many open looks as he did with Yao. Luis' job will be harder as well.

 

Maybe people have forgotten it because it didn't really happen. In those four games against LA without Yao, Battier shot 33% from the field and 29% from three.

 

Hmmm. Shot creation vs efficiency.

Rockets have a lot of unquestionably efficient players who can't necessarily get their own shot, and the Griz have players who can undeniably create their own shot, but not necessarily play efficiently.

Question becomes then, IMO, which team can make up for their deficiency better. Is there a better chance the Rockets as a team find a way to create quality shots, or is it more likely the Griz figure out how to play together effectively as a team?

I say the Rockets have a better chance because they are more going into untreaded waters than the Griz. The Griz have already proven, and AI has already proven that they can't really play well together, i.e. make their team better, play efficiently together; whereas the remaining Rockets have never been asked to create their own shots. The article clearly states not that the current roster lineup has failed in creating shots, just that the existing roster everyone was behind TMac, Yao, Ron and Wafer, all of which are now gone, at least temporarily.

I think the Rockets, with general team chemistry have a better chance of, as a team, creating shots, than AI and the Griz have a chance of becoming a cohesive and efficient team. Just my opinion.