Please lock/merge if this was posted before. Kevin Pelton, stats guy and former maintainer of the Sonics website, writes his thoughts on the trade. It looks like he envisions Artest as the leader of the second unit, a la Manu Ginobili. http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=395 [rquoter] When the Houston Rockets make a move, I pay extra attention. With Daryl Morey as general manager and top analysts Sam Hinkie, Ed Kupfer and Eli Witus all on the payroll, the Rockets make use of statistical analysis in a manner unlike any other NBA team. That has played a role in unconventional moves like taking lightly-regarded Carl Landry with the top pick of the second round of last year's draft. In terms of boldness, that decision pales in comparison to the one Houston agreed to last week. The Houston Chronicle reported Tuesday that the Rockets agreed to send backup guard Bobby Jackson, rookie Donté Greene, next year's first-round pick and cash to Sacramento in exchange for talented but volatile forward Ron Artest in a deal that cannot be completed until Aug. 14 because of the inclusion of the recently-signed Greene. While dealing for Artest is surprising, it's not a move that reflects Houston's use of statistical analysis, at least superficially. The numbers merely confirm Artest's reputation as one of the league's most valuable players when properly focused and motivated. I was a little surprised, in looking up Artest's adjusted plus-minus numbers, how consistently he has rated near the NBA's leaders. In 2005-06, numbers compiled by David Lewin put Artest sixth in the league in terms of his on-court impact adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents. Last year, BasketballValue.com rated Artest as 4.84 points better than average per 100 possessions, his worst single-season rating dating back to 2004-05 but still among the NBA's top 40 players. Despite that performance, the Kings have been looking to move Artest since last year's trade deadline. Artest wasn't a huge problem for Sacramento last year, but he was a nuisance, whether in his occasional ill-begotten attempts to control the team's offense or his recent public flip-flopping on whether he wanted to stay with the Kings after deciding not to opt out of the final year of his contract. How will Artest fit in Houston? That figures to be one of next season's most fascinating and entertaining storylines. A smaller role--whether he starts as an undersized power forward or comes off the bench, and deferring to Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming as the go-to options when all three players are on the floor--could prove challenging for Artest. The biggest factor in Houston's favor in terms of making this all work is head coach Rick Adelman, who coached Artest for the second half of the 2005-06 season in Sacramento after a midseason deal with Indiana brought Artest to the Kings. That was one of Artest's happiest and most successful stretches of basketball, and the Kings closed the season 26-14 after posting an 18-24 record prior to the trade. If Adelman and Artest click as they did with the Kings, it's easy to envision a scenario where in which Artest could be very valuable to the Rockets. Houston has been looking for an offensive leader for its second unit, a role the Rockets hoped another former King, Bonzi Wells, would fill last year. The emergence of rookies Landry and Luis Scola helped give Houston more punch last season, but when either McGrady or Yao is out of the lineup--something the Rockets simply have to accept is going to happen for extended stretches every year--having Artest as a second player capable of creating his own offense could make a big difference. A focused Artest also gives Adelman options at the end of close games. He can go with last year's starting lineup of Rafer Alston, McGrady, Shane Battier, Scola and Yao, a traditional look. He can put Artest at power forward and match up with smaller, more versatile fours while having two stoppers on the floor. Or he could even slide McGrady to the point for stretches and have both Artest and Battier able to defend on the wings in a lineup where every player is 6'7" or bigger. Greene was at least a year or two away from contributing for the Rockets, so the only short-term loss in this deal is Jackson. The expectation was that sophomore Aaron Brooks would wrest the role of backup to Alston away from Jackson this season, but having the veteran was a nice fallback option for Adelman. Houston could probably get by with a combination of McGrady, Luther Head and newcomer Brent Barry if need be, but none of those players is a true point guard. If everything works, the Rockets have the potential to rank amongst the NBA's all-time top defenses next season. Already, Houston has been near the top of the league in Defensive Rating year in and year out, including finishing second behind the Boston Celtics last season. Adding another top-tier defender to the mix will make the Rockets' defense that much stingier. Though I've never believed Artest to be quite as good as his hype at the defensive end, at his best he is as disruptive as anyone in the league at that end of the floor. At the other end, Artest has the ability to get Houston out of the long scoring droughts that plagued the team during its first-round postseason loss to Utah. It's not a stretch to imagine that with Artest and a healthy Alston, the Rockets would have won that series--even without the injured Yao. This deal moves Houston up slightly in the still-crowded Western Conference pecking order. I'd still call the Lakers and New Orleans the top two teams in the West, but there's scarcely any drop-off to the second tier that includes the Rockets, Utah and San Antonio. The real beauty of this trade for Houston is that the Rockets are not depending on Artest for their success; he's something of a bonus. If Artest plays or behaves poorly in a game, he'll find himself on the bench. In the long term, Artest has only this final year remaining on his contract. If he doesn't fit in, Houston can simply move on. A veteran point guard and two late first-round draft picks is a small price to pay to take that kind of gamble. The deal works for the Kings too. The time had come to move on and part ways with Artest, making a trade inevitable. The biggest thing the Kings get out of this deal is the opportunity for their young perimeter players--Kevin Martin, John Salmons and Francisco Garcia--to step into larger roles. Now, Martin is unquestionably the man in Sacramento, a role he's earned with his efficient scoring. Salmons steps into a full-time starting role with Garcia backing up both swing positions. Given that center Brad Miller is the only veteran player left in Sacramento, it made sense for the Kings to continue to build with youth rather than flip Artest in a challenge trade for a player like Lamar Odom. Could they have done better than Greene and what figures to be a first-round pick in the 20s? Maybe. At the deadline, the talk was Artest for Denver's Linas Kleiza, a superior prospect. Still, the return was good enough not to wait for a better offer to come around. Greene impressed observers at the NBA Summer League, averaging 22.6 points per game to rank second amongst all scorers. His Pelton Translation numbers were much less impressive. I don't necessarily take that as a huge strike against Greene, because he is awfully young and players with his skill set--long defenders who can stretch the defense by making threes--have historically been very valuable. What the Kings shouldn't expect is immediate contributions. That's acceptable because, in the wake of this deal, Sacramento's goals are long-term in nature. [/rquoter]
So it was another moneyball move and Artest has one of the highest ratings in the league. Let's hope the numbers actually result in a 2nd round playoff berth.
Great find. Much loving from "It's not a stretch to imagine that with Artest and a healthy Alston, the Rockets would have won that series--even without the injured Yao".
Great to see that his +/- are so good. In watching guys like Hayes and Battier who have good +/- #'s, I find it no fluke as a good measure of a guy to create extra posessions for his team. Now all that is left is to see if Yao, Tmac, and Artest can coexist on the floor at the same time.
2nd round? I think it's Finals or bust. We are not gonna get more talented than we are right now, we have the big 3 which is as good as any trio in the NBA, and we also have the best supporting cast and deepest rotation we've had in ... well maybe FOREVER. I really don't give a crap how good the WC is - if we don't break through this year then it's going to be a long time before we do. On more to do with the topic, I am really interested to see how Greene does with the presumed plethora of opportunities he's going to get in SacTown. I wish him well.
Check the links in the article for a couple places. You may also want to check this thread at the APBRmetrics board (for which Kevin Pelton is the admin) for more discussion of Adjusted +/- as they relate to our roster.
As talented as that trio is, it's the injuries that defeats them not the other team. Morey needs to spend more money on medical staff and equipment than on 20 statisticians and computers. It's been bust for years.
Slightly? Slightly? We add an all-star, the numbers suggest that he is even better than he looks offensively, he put up good numbers year in and year out in spite of POUTING and turning himself off for games, and the most this guy can conclude is that we moved up slightly? This is a better team than Ron Artest has ever played on. He now has a reason to show up every game, both for himself (contract) and for the team (winning a championship). Boston set the mold (no shots after the whistle), and the Rockets will take it and run (no layups!). Oh we're going to improve more than slightly. And we're sure as hell going to be better than New Orleans. How is anyone going to defend Yao anymore? Double-teams are going to be hard to come by with our weapons. Between Barry Battier T-Mac and Artest, T-Mac is the worst three point shooter, but honestly what team is not going to put a man on T-Mac? Man I can't wait for the season. All these shrunk-ball prognosticaters won't even be able to say I told you so.
Wow! That article was refreshingly great. The rare article where new information (at least to me) about the Rockets and Artest. 5 Stars.
it's clear that artest is a superstar ,morey can't hire another superstar at that low salary except artest.however, artest contract has just one year left ,then mmorey will have to give him a contract matching his real value.the good news is according to the league rules,artest's maximum salary will not exceed 14m,which will be affordable as sf3's extiring contract.Besides ,morey will have the bird rights for artest,so however high salary artest will ask for,morey will afford and offer him if les is not reluctant to pay the luxury tax. Yes,that's the point,both the problems for re-signing landry and mutombo come from the mean les and their damn agents.
Plus ,it 'll be a big pity for deke to miss his first yet seemingly the only championship in his long career.
It amazes me why people think that Artest will possibly start at power Forward when we have Scola starting there. It makes NO sense at all to start Artest at the PF just to keep Battier in the starting lineup. Scola is better than Battier to me. Battier, as good as his defense is, is ONLY good enough to be a backup to Artest at the 3, Artest's natural position. They should only play together on the court in special circumstances during a game where we need two lock down wing defenders, not as a freaking starting linup. San Antonio started this crap about bringing your third best player off the bench...and what did they do? Yes, that's right, they reinserted Ginobili back into the starting lineup last year because of poor offensive performances by the team. Simply put, you START your best players at each position to be a successful team. It is not like when one of the big three goes to the bench, that all of them will go at the same time. Even if they all start, there still is opportunity for one of them to be on the court at ALL times with the right substitution patterns. And as it stands right now, our instant offense off the bench will be Barry's three point threat, Landry's points per min, and possibly a revived Francis. Battier will be our defense off the bench along with a three point threat. Just because he started last year, doesn't mean he has to be an offensive spark in order to be a sixth man. He may not even be the first off the bench since Artest is such a beast and won't need to be substituted for so quickly. Yao should be the first to the bench, and his replacement, followed by Tracy's replacement will probably be the normal first two off the bench, barring fouling issues. Battier could even end up being third or fourth off the bench because he is playing behind Artest. I don't see any reason why we would want Battier playing starters minutes on a team that most here agreed last year that he was not starter material. He is a defensive specialist that can hit the three pretty decently. About 13-18 minutes per game is all that we need him for in order to maximum his skill set.
Yeah, No team will offer Artest a max long term contract, because of his reputation. Artest's higher risk will lower his market value. Morey will have a max player for less than $14 mil, when Artest gets resigned.
I really like the article. There's one thing I'd point out, though: This is just not correct. Part of the reason veterans like Adelman is that he doesn't bench players (or perhaps just veterans) if they play or behave poorly in a game. This can be exasperating for fans on a game by game basis, but it's the kind of attitude that gets the most out of many players. The more important thing is that the contract ends after a year, so if the sum of any and all distractions is too much the Rockets can let him walk. (Of course, that's a double edged sword since all it will take is one perceived slight for Artest to complain about wanting an extension.)
You are right about that. I am not sure I understand from a basketball sense why the Lakers and Hornets would be considered better than the Rockets right now. If the Rockets had not added Artest, they could have challenged those teams, but with Artest the Rockets are clearly superior. This is unless someone wants to talk about health concerns, but the author did not cite that in his analysis. In the playoffs, if the teams are reasonably comparable in their offensive execution, then superior defense is going to win. That is why the Celtics absolutely dismantled the Lakers in the finals. If any team could duplicate that in the West, it would be the Rockets. Two shut down defenders against a team that only has one consistent superstar--Kobe can't do everything. Finally, the Lakers have no interior defense worth mentioning. Do you think Yao might exploit that a little? The Hornets and Rockets would prove to be a more interesting matchup, because the Rockets still don't have anyone who can keep up with CP3. But would any GM choose CP3, West, and Chandler over McGrady, Yao, and Artest, if they had one year to build a championship team? Give the Lakers their respectable top spot as the defending WCC, but after the first month all will know the truth.
He did refer to health concerns: "The emergence of rookies Landry and Luis Scola helped give Houston more punch last season, but when either McGrady or Yao is out of the lineup--something the Rockets simply have to accept is going to happen for extended stretches every year--having Artest as a second player capable of creating his own offense could make a big difference." The Rockets have a lot to prove, and all three of their best players are prone to miss huge chunks of the season. Even after the brawl year, look how many games Artest has missed per year. I think its perfectly reasonable to put the Lakers and Hornets ahead of the Rockets right now.
