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[Basketball Prospectus] Rebuild? Discussion on the "Success Cycle"

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Dec 23, 2010.

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  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Not specifically about the Rockets, but I think the topic is very relevant to where we are right now as a franchise.

    Is it wise to go young? Is that really our best chance to get back into the winners circle?

    http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1360

    [rquoter]
    ...

    The bigger takeaway is the uncanny ability of the future to turn out less rosy than we anticipate. One element of the data on successful young teams I did not explore two years ago was their tendency to underachieve expectations. The mid-2000s Chicago Bulls are an excellent example. With a young core of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Tyson Chandler and Eddy Curry, the Bulls were a trendy pick for a couple of years--especially among statistical analysts--before collapsing when Scott Skiles lost the team and the addition of Ben Wallace backfired.

    The 2002-03 Los Angeles Clippers were also apparently on the verge of big things when they added Andre Miller to a core that had contended for a playoff spot the previous season. The large number of expiring contracts on the roster proved unstable, however, and the Clippers were broken up at year's end.

    One of my favorite Baseball Prospectus columns of all time was Jonah Keri's debut for the site, in which he formalized the concept of the "success cycle." The success cycle argues that teams must make decisions based on an understanding of whether their goals are to compete or to add talent for a future run. It appeals to our sense of logic and order and is completely reasonable. It is also possibly bunk.

    When BP's Derek Zumsteg looked for historical examples of the success cycle in baseball the following year, he found the results mixed at best. "As I look more closely for actual evidence of its existence in baseball," Zumsteg concluded, "I find only that if there is such a thing, it is lost in the much larger forces of organizational quality, team strength, and luck (uh, I mean, random variance)."

    Looking through modern NBA history, it is equally difficult to find examples of the success cycle at play in terms of teams going completely through the rebuilding process and emerging as championship contenders. Instead, what we see is that the teams that make it do so haphazardly by adding a superstar through the draft, often with lottery luck.

    The significance of the lottery is a unique feature of basketball because of the importance a single player can have. Having a great player is not in and of itself sufficient to win championships, and that is where organizational quality comes into play, but it is a necessary condition. That's why, of all the issues Portland has dealt with over the last season and a half on and off the court, only Roy's health (and, to a lesser extent, Oden's) has substantially changed the team's fortunes.

    Beyond that, looking around the league, we see numerous examples of teams being in the right place at the right time. The Boston Celtics are the anti-success cycle poster boys, having gone from the lottery to the championship overnight by virtue of dealing for Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Lakers took the next step by putting themselves in position to deal for Pau Gasol. Both teams, and especially the Celtics, had to stockpile assets in order to make the trades, but if Minnesota and Memphis had been unwilling to deal, the course of history would look entirely different.

    This is not to say that the success cycle is totally irrelevant. It remains true that general managers must have an objective understanding of their team's ability to compete in order to correctly balance short- and long-term goals. This year's best example of a team falling short of this ideal is the Milwaukee Bucks, who loaded up on veterans in the wake of last year's late-season run. As it turned out, the Bucks were not as good as they appeared during that stretch. Milwaukee may yet sneak into the Eastern Conference Playoffs, but for the time being the Bucks are a below-.500 team with an aging roster and limited salary-cap flexibility.

    ...
    [/rquoter]
     
    #1 durvasa, Dec 23, 2010
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  2. Raven

    Raven Member

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    There are two factors at work, one is that Stern has let it be known that when a star is traded, the swap must not appear lopsided. Two, stars are increasingly obsessed with either playing with other stars or playing in a glamorous city, preferably both. Since Houston isn't a glamorous city, the best way to attract a star is by already having one. OK, so how do we get that first star? The draft seems the most logical option, since other alternatives are drying up, yet the odds of drafting a star dwindle to almost nothing once you fall out of the top five. Morey is too good for the Rockets to ever be bad enough to land a top five pick, so I'm not sure how this current strategy is getting us any closer to winning a championship.
     
    #2 Raven, Dec 23, 2010
  3. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Summary: Tanking is for losers and has no effect on your teams ability to win a championship.
     
    #3 trugoy, Dec 23, 2010
  4. RV6

    RV6 Contributing Member

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    Something to consider is also the infatuation with
    "potential" teams can have in the draft. Or you could just say it's drafting poorly in general. There's been quite a number of busts high in the draft because of it. Tough to build a contender like that. Teams lower in the draft end up getting better players.

    One recent example is Minny taking two Pgs in flynn and rubio. Three really, after taking Lawson. They end up trading the one most likely to stick and actually play for them and missing out on probably the best one (Curry).

    I guess you can trace it back to college players coming out too early. They can have one good fluke season and it makes it difficult to evaluate them. Sometimes it wasnt even a fluke though, but they come in too early and immature, can't cut it right away and teams give up on them (beasley, probably will happen to thabeet, Mayo,).
     
    #4 RV6, Dec 23, 2010
  5. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Contributing Member

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    Has a team every won a championship by trading for their best player?

    The Celtics already had Pierce (who they got in the draft) prior to KG and Allen's arrival -- and Pierce is the guy they go to when the game is on the line.

    The Heat got Wade through the draft and being terrible -- and they traded for Shaq (a complimentary piece on that team) to help put them over the top.

    The Lakers already had Kobe before trading for Gasol.

    Is there any evidence to suggest that a championship team was able to put the role players in place before finding their go-to superstar? I guess every team is different and it could happen?
     
    #5 LongTimeFan, Dec 23, 2010
  6. Carl Herrera

    Carl Herrera Contributing Member

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    The Lakers traded Vlade for Kobe. They won 53 games the year before they did so.

    Pistons traded for Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace, and Rip Hamilton. Signed Billups as FA.
     
    #6 Carl Herrera, Dec 23, 2010
  7. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    I can't think of a single team and sucked year after year getting top draft pick after pick and then turning it around and winning.

    At most it has always been franchises that have a long record of winning that go through very brief periods of losing.
     
    #7 trugoy, Dec 23, 2010
  8. LongTimeFan

    LongTimeFan Contributing Member

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    The Lakers best player was Shaquille O'neal, who they got through free agency. They "traded" for Kobe like we traded for Eddie Griffin.

    The Miami Heat?
     
    #8 LongTimeFan, Dec 23, 2010
  9. Don FakeFan

    Don FakeFan Member

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    Cavs, Thunders, Celtics, Portland, Heat, Magic, Spurs, Rockets, Hornets, Bulls, Nuggets, Jazz, ....... plenty.
     
    #9 Don FakeFan, Dec 23, 2010
  10. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Miami is a great example, they've only missed the playoffs 3 times in the past 15 years, and mostly through injuries. They definitely did not "tank" or rebuild by trading their players for "potential" or draft picks.
     
    #10 trugoy, Dec 23, 2010
  11. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Kobe was a highly sought lottery pick. He ditched workouts and threatened to go to Italy. It was a similiar situation to Steve Francis coming to Houston with the exception of the threat to leave for Italy.
     
    #11 BetterThanEver, Dec 23, 2010
  12. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    You are just making things up...

    Out of the teams you mentioned, only the Celtics, Spurs, Heat, and Rockets have won championships.

    Spurs have only not being to the playoffs once in the last 20 years, how the hell are they an example of "sucked year after year getting top draft pick after pick and then turning it around and winning."

    Heat have only missed the playoffs 3 times in the last 15 years.

    Celtics are a classic argument against you, they refused to trade their franchise player to "rebuild". They spent years with mediocre records and middle of the pack draft picks. If they ever dealt Paul Pierce to "rebuild", Ray Allen and KG never happens.
     
    #12 trugoy, Dec 23, 2010
  13. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Chicago Bulls failed to make the playoffs 7 times in 9 years, before drafting Jordan #3 for multiple championships.
    Pistons failed to make the playoffs 6 years in a row, and drafted Isiah #2.

    Celtics failed to make the playoffs 8 times in 9 years from 1993-2001. They were perennial lottery team. It was a horrible to be a Celtics fan in the 90s. Eventually, they landed Pierce, and various other lottery picks. They made the playoffs for 4 seasons and went back to the lottery again in 2006 and 2007. That's 10 years of lottery seasons out of 14. They traded the #5 lottery pick in the 2007 draft for Ray Allen. They picked up Garnett, but Jefferson wasn't a lottery pick.
     
    #13 BetterThanEver, Dec 23, 2010
  14. TheFreak

    TheFreak Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]
     
    #14 TheFreak, Dec 23, 2010
  15. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Bulls and Pistons were pre-draft lottery, where you could tank and be assured of no 1 pick, it was the tanking of houston that led to the draft lottery.

    Celtics you could possibly say it, but that's one championship in the past 20 years that was won that way, not a great endorsement of tanking if you ask me.
     
    #15 trugoy, Dec 23, 2010
  16. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Thomas picked up after 21 win 61 loss season for the Pistons.
    Jordan drafted after Bulls 27 win and 55 loss season for Bulls.
    [​IMG]
     
    #16 BetterThanEver, Dec 23, 2010
  17. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Neither Isiah or Jordan was a #1 pick. Neither was JPierce(10) or Jeff Green(5) who was traded for Allen.

    Each team has a different draft board and values players differently. Generally, though, the franchise players are gone by the time playoff teams pick.
     
    #17 BetterThanEver, Dec 23, 2010
  18. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    Different era, there was no such thing as salary cap, luxury tax, even free agency was limited.

    We are playing with a very specific CBA.
     
    #18 trugoy, Dec 23, 2010
  19. PeppermintCandy

    PeppermintCandy Member

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    A little off topic but I always thought the "all youth" move was a risky decision for a team. You might luck out and get a group of young players ready to take on a major role right away, but most rookies and second-year players are better off having limited responsibilities while surrounded by hard-working veterans who can show them the ropes.

    Houston has a great mixture of youth and veterans right now - except, of course, none of the young guys are cornerstone-type players. But for player development, the environment that Morey has built is excellent IMO.

    Now if they can only get that franchise-level player(s) to take advantage of this great situation...
     
    #19 PeppermintCandy, Dec 23, 2010
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  20. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    I would be happy if the Rockets sucked bad for a season or two and get a Dwayne Wade or Duncan and go back to the playoffs instead of sucking for 10 years out of 14 like the Celtics.

    It's unlikely that the Rockets are going to get Kobe talent avoiding workouts and threatening to go to Italy, unless they go to Houston. Or franchise players ditching the Orlando Magic to play in Houston, unless they are injury prone.

    So Houston can't copy the Lakers model.
     
    #20 BetterThanEver, Dec 23, 2010
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