So think of the prior as the starting point rating. The better the player does with more and more possessions, the more he pushes that rating upward. The worse the player does with more and more possessions, the more the rating gets pushed downward. Thus, if a player doesn't get many possessions and/or his performance isn't particularly distinguishable from whatever his prior is set to, his rating won't shift all that much. And for the prior, we're just talking about RAPM calculation, which is 65% of the final rating. The other 35% comes from the player's boxscore rating (using a statistical +/- formula devised by Engelmann). I believe that component shouldn't be affected at all by the prior.
Ok cool, thanks. Much obliged! So, sounds like I was a bit too harsh on PBev. Good! The better the defender he is, the better the team is. Also, it seems like both Lin and Bev are capable of being Plus Defenders. This is what annoyed me about the entire "horrible Houston perimeter defense" matter in the first place. I don't think things are as bad as they have been made out to be. Clippers and Paul were hot against us. Not so against the Lakers. Not so against the Magic. Looking forward to the rematch in H-Town.
I hope we all stop this Lin vs Bev thing.... tbh they are both good players... but I think it will greatly benefit the whole team if lin is the 6th man (hoping for 48 mins of great offense and 48 mins of great defense)... would also be less drama if the transition to this role is proper... like maybe before the game, Mchale or any Rockets FO would hint to the media about lin is shift to the 6th man role, as thier extensive analysis reveals that the team will win more games doing this blah blah....
I agree with you. The media is overly harsh on Lin regarding his defensive abilities. I worry about Harden's focus and energy on defense, and then I worry about our defensive team work (rotations and everyone being on the same page). Lin's individual defensive ability, to me, is generally just fine.
I totally agree. And I think the team's defense will improve this year and into the future as they work together more. To Morlock's point -- I don't want to talk about Lin vs Bev. Said on here a long time ago that I'm ok with either guy starting. What I don't like, and what will get a reaction out of me, is when people -- Rockets fans or national media types -- start putting out stuff about our players that has an "agenda" feel to it. That annoys me. And I particularly get tired of what I perceive to be the half-truths regarding Lin. Because they seem to come by the busload and the piling-on aspect just doesn't sit well with me.
I agree. Granted it's a very small sample size, but TBH so far 4 out 5 games his D looks above average. The CP3 nightmare should be ignored because that would be like someone criticizing a forward for not being able to guard Lebron.
I couldn't agree with you more. There seems to be an "agenda" with some of the national media. In today's Dime ,an internet mag, an article entitled in part "Chris Paul puts Jeremy Lin on ice." The article ofcourse covered the LAC game and focused on how Lin's" ankles were broken" by Paul, and how Paul scored at will against Lin. Yet the conversation on Clutchfans, a more knowledgeable and concerned group, focused on Harden's very poor defense. The Dime article did not criticise Harden to any significant extent.
Just to add a thought. Sinergy has Lin's Defensive PPP rating as .73. Beverly's is much higher but he has not played enough minutes to make it meaningful. As I have noted before Lin had a better overall PPP rating than Beverley by a small amount. Beverly was definately not overall defensively better than Lin Last year and this year may be the same.
The Lin-Harden combo is a sieve. Harden is hidden on D when they can. Lin is equally as bad if not worse because of role/position. Stop watching who gets scored on but the lead up to how the opposition gets open or half a step ahead when the ball is moved around. In the NBA it all mostly starts with dribble penetration & the PG.
Agree with you. I read Kevin Pelton's analysis of Lin before his injury recovery last season, and he mentioned how ridiculously good Lin's per minute numbers always been even when he was in GS as backup. I once compared Lin's boxscore defensive per minute numbers in GS and Beverley's from last year, and they are surprisingly similar. Both have great numbers in rebs, steals, blocks per 36 minutes playing backup PG. This season Lin would be put into a weird situation when him and Bev share the floor, since Lin will have to defend taller 2's. Because Lin's recovering from injury last season, I treat his defensive stats the same way as DWH's stats last season. And because of the comparison I made between Lin(in GS) and Bev(last year) as backup, I don't see any reason Bev is a better defender overall. Remember Lin posted those numbers at younger age. Bev, though, is a very good player and maybe a perfect role player. But he doesn't have the higher ceiling IMO.
Thanks for this. I don't have access to the Synergy information, but I know that this data has been brought up before. What I LOVE as regards Lin and Bev is that they are learning from each other, it seems. Lin is improving on defense, Bev is improving on offense. Great. That's why competition is a good thing, I think. I don't recall caring who started back in the championship era with Smith and Cassell. Both were good and had their strengths. The core issue for me, or one of them, is the apparently false/tortured "logic" that goes into ripping Lin or other of our players. I don't understand the apparent need by some to try to downgrade Lin, even if they think the team would be better with Beverley as the starter. Why can't they both just be good players? That's basically what Morey seemed to be saying when he made the Cleveland Cavs Kevin Johnson/Mark Price comparison (both point guards on the same team in the late 1980's) in the recent past. I felt the same way when Dwight was being ripped by Lakers fans and national media people after he left LA. The "Dwight's a quiiter/loser, Kobe is great" type of stuff. Gone many rounds on message boards regarding that topic.
Actually I read it, which is why I asked the question. The other part I left out of the quote because it was way too long. Because in that ridiculously long post you never gave your answer. You just gave why you think offensive RAPM would rate Beverley higher. You know, I can give a ton of reasons why Lin's defensive RAPM is higher than Beverley while still making it seem like I don't believe he's the better defender. You can't have it both ways. If you want to use xRAPM to indicate that Beverley would not have helped on defense, then you should've also pointed out that using xRAPM that he would've helped on offense. Anyway, regardless of stats, I'll take McHale and Morey's opinions over nba.com stats any day of the week personally.
Pretty good podcast today with Lowe and Simmons for those of you looking to kill the last hour of your work day and not get caught surfing the web- http://espn.go.com/espnradio/grantland/player?id=10073986 Lots of Rockets talk- -Simmons brings up Asik as a potential missing piece for Portland to be a serious team, but can't really come up with great trades that makes sense. Robin Lopez, McCollum for Asik is about as realistic as they can get. -Asik trade is really the trade that can swing the powers around with the contenders -Lowe talks about what player would make sense, and he brings up guys that have been traditional 3's that are very good that the Rockets progressively could make a 4 and do well... First thing Lowe brings up is someone who is long and can defend... of course Luol Deng's name is brought up. -Talk about trading both the Lin & Asik contracts in a deal but talk about how its bad next year, but if you factor in this year... not so bad for the right owner (like Paul Allen). -Lowe brings up the fact that we (the NBA critical fans) are way too hard on them because when they lose, its just terrible to watch cause its because of Howard free throws or Harden defense, but they are much better than people give them credit for -Some good talk about recent events around the league. etc. etc.
Was in the middle of starting a new thread for this. Forgot I started the last one when Lowe was on the podcast. Definitely a good listen for Rockets fans. It was nice to hear when Lowe brought up that most people in general are way too low on The Rockets so far. Pointing out that our offense, defense and point differential rankings are all very good despite some of our ugly losses.
Yeah he's right on the money with that assessment even though he even admits that he's guilty of it too because when they lose its downright ugly. The Rockets might be the worst team in the league for a knee jerk fanbase.... NO WAY that would be Houston fans... Actually its not that bad, but just imagine if this team played in New York. In one week you could probably get 4 articles that claim they are a contender, and 3 that claim they are the worst team in the league. My main takeaway at this point in the season is that yes, like many really teams in the league, the Rockets have glaring weaknesses. What separates them from other contenders (other than Miami who has Lebron and OKC who has Durant) is that the Rockets actually have the ability to upgrade those weaknesses with one fail swoop in this Asik trade. This trade will really define how far the Rockets can go and for how long. With this team its still "stay tuned" and we have to sit and wait once again for Morey to do his magic. Right now we are stuck in that category of good playoff teams with major weaknesses, but there is realistic hope that this team is about to make that jump up to the next level here pretty soon.
Parsons has regressed on defense because he's exerting more energy on the offensive end. Which will be fine when we make proper roster changes. Roster has a ways to go to being finished.
About the Deng trade discussion: 1. I do like Deng but would not give up both Lin and Asik for Deng. Whatever the contractual implications, it does hurt the team talent-wise at PG/SG and C-- and I think the recent injuries show that a team does need depth to get through a season and playoffs. 2. Contract-wise, the Bulls are looking at the possibility of huge (max?) cap room this summer if they let Deng go and amnesty Boozer. So, I am not sure that they want to take back significant continuing money in a Deng trade. 3. Perhaps the more likely Bulls deal would be Asik (or Lin?) for Gibson. Gibson's cap hit is about the same as Asik's or Lin's both this year and next.
