You are also cherry picking a what they said, they did mention beverley and I assure you they didn't say he's a game changer
It's not putting it all on the PG spot. Certainly Parsons and Harden need to improve, but the obvious quick and easier change is at the pg spot with Beverley. You need to plug defensive holes where you can and that helps the others plug theirs a little better. And it's already been said plenty of times that you can't stop CP3. No one expects Lin or Bev to stop him.
Everybody on the team should be picked on when they play terrible. It is ridiculous to pick on one player because you believe he will be traded and the other won't. The players that are starting should step up their defensive game not just PG position. Parson and Harden defense have been terrible aint no getting around that. Lin actually played better D than the both of them.
No, this is again propping up an apparently false misconception of both Beverley's and Lin's defensive impact. I can't access the Synergy information, because I think you need an account to do so. However, a couple of data points will help make the point. xRAPM data from 2012-13: http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=242826 Lin Def xRAPM = -0.16 Bev Def xRAPM = -0.54 In this example, then, both Lin and Beverley are "minus" defenders. Beverley is not riding to the rescue here, with that data. Then there is this data from the Portland game last night. Lin Def Rating = 088.1 Bev Def Rating = 098.0 Data: http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.ht...pe=Advanced&PerMode=PerGame&groupFeedtype=opp http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.ht...type=opp&MeasureType=Advanced&PerMode=PerGame Additionally, Lin had 2 steals in the Portland game to Beverley's no steals. Now, there may be other data out there (like DRTG from 2012-13, a year in which Lin was recovering from knee surgery) which makes the case for Beverley as some vastly superior defender over Lin or as some kind of Magic Unicorn defender. But I haven't seen it yet. And the simple repetition of the Magic Unicorn story isn't making me believe the Magic Unicorn story any more than I did before I heard the Magic Unicorn story. As said earlier in the thread, no one is stopping Chris Paul right now. His PER is about 37.5 or so at this time, which was about what it was before the Houston game. The next closest competitor to Paul is Brook Lopez, with a 30.9 PER. At this point in time, Paul is the MVP of the league, IMO. In essence, criticizing Lin for not stopping Paul is like telling Kawhi Leonard he's a joke defender because LeBron James scored 30 points on him. Here are Lin's DRTG numbers from every game this season: CHA --- 091.8 DAL --- 082.3 UTH --- 091.9 LAC --- 145.9 POR --- 088.1 So, which number appears to be the "aberration" in that data set? That's the Chris Paul Effect. And the effect was magnified because some of those stats came when Lin had 5 fouls and backed off of Paul. If you take out the Clippers game, Lin's DRTG for the year is 088.5 (with the Clippers game it's 100.5). Patrick Beverley's defensive rating in 2012-13 was 098.8. Thus, even if you put in the Clippers game, you're only seeing a 1.7 points difference in what Beverley did last season on defense and what Lin is doing right now. Patrick is an excellent defender, I think, despite what the xRAPM data says from 2012-13. Do I think he would have done much of anything against Chris Paul? No. Do I think he's going to "rescue" the Rockets "horrible" perimeter defense? No. Do I think the Rockets perimeter defense is "horrible?" No. The Clippers hit 15 threes on about 40% shooting in the game and shot 52% for the game. That could be blamed on Houston's defense, of course, or it could just be one game. Kind of like how the Lakers beat the Clippers in the first game of the season. People could have said "the Clippers are no good because the Lakers beat them." But the truth was probably more that it was one game and the Lakers were up for the game and they played and shot well. It happens. Hopefully the Rockets will get revenge in the rematch. The team does need Beverley if for no other reason than it gets Brooks and his defense off the floor. So, we do need Patrick for defense, certainly. Even if he isn't the Magic Unicorn Plus Defender, Solver Of All Perimeter Defense Woes that some seem to want to make him out to be.
I wouldn't put too much stock into this. Beverley was also +1.0 on offense and Lin +0.6. I don't think anyone would make the assertion that Beverley is a better offensive player. Even trolls who like to stir things up.
They said they don't think even Beverley would sway us enough. So they obviously think he could help. Just not enough to "sway" us from this problem. You want me to quote the whole radio interview? I think he would sway us enough given the teams we are going to face. WC is full of PG centric teams. Every other team in the WC playoff standings so far are PG reliant: Minnesota, Clippers, Phoenix, Spurs, Golden State, OKC, Portland. Matter of fact, majority of the teams who aren't seeded yet are also PG reliant. Like Meh said, what's their offensive RAPM than? I'm sure you'd love to make that argument as well. Stop saying silly things.
I'm not sure you've looked at the entire argument I have made in the thread. So, let's try it again. First of all, this. From the NBA.com site: http://on.nba.com/1emuMMq Englemann's site is the site of the xRAPM stats, I believe. So, if that is supposedly the best set of stats to go from, then that's what it is. Is that correct, are they the best stats? I don't know. I have to learn more about that subject. However, wishing something to be true doesn't make it not true. Now, as I said earlier in the thread, Lin was pretty awful for a good portion of last year. I don't think anyone is denying that. And that seemed to correlate with the recovery from the knee surgery. As seen, for example, in how he did in the second half of the season compared with the first half. As I argued with people here last year, and as I said earlier in the thread, if you look at Lin's stats last year and compare them with other years, you see differences. Much like how the Clippers game DRTG for Lin stands out from the other games' ratings. As I alluded to earlier in the thread, the Net Rating With Lin On The Court as compared with the Net Rating With Lin Off The Court seems to be the most telling stat to point out the apparent knee effects. So, what we're talking about then is [Team ORTG - Team DRTG With Lin On The Court] - [Team ORTG - Team DRTG With Lin Off The Court]. Here's what those numbers look like for Lin's career: 2010-11 = +04.9 2011-12 = +04.4 2012-13 = -02.7 2013-14 = +02.5 Again, an obvious "aberration" stat jumps out. That the stat jumps out in the year Lin was recovering from knee surgery doesn't surprise me. That jibes with my own Eye Test from last year. Now, so we turn to the 2012-13 xRAPM stats. Bev and Lin both "Minus Defenders," but Bev with the edge in the offensive number. So, if you look at the above stat about Lin On Court/Off Court in his career, and see the figure for last year, it makes sense. That is, I could see Patrick Beverley having a superior offensive rating for 2012-13 over Lin. Simply put, Lin didn't look that great often (or was inconsistent) until later in the year and Bev hit outside shots at a better rate than Lin. Thus, can I believe Bev had a better Offensive xRAPM than Lin did in 2012-13? Yep. That fits with the data. Now, do I expect that trend to continue if Lin and Bev are both healthy this entire year? That is, for Bev to have a better offensive number than Lin? No. But on the other hand, Bev is improving his offense and so you never know. Maybe he could have a better number than Lin again. However, this isn't the argument here. The argument is about Houston's "horrible" perimeter defense and Bev as Magical Unicorn Perimeter Defense Fixer-Upper. Based upon the xRAPM stats -- which came at a time when Bev was generally considered to be playing great defense, not like Lin who was generally considered to have had a down year -- this simply isn't realistic. Again, there may be other data out there I don't know about. I have heard that Synergy has stats saying Lin was better than Bev on like Points Per Possession defense or something, but I haven't seen it. Here are some of the stats on perimeter players with good (high figure) defensive xRAPM stats last year: Luol Deng -------- 1.14 Shawn Marion ---- 1.59 Andre Iguodala --- 3.33 Matt Barnes ------ 0.57 Ricky Rubio ------- 1.98 Jason Kidd -------- 1.68 LeBron James ----- 1.62 Metta Peace ------ 1.52 Mike Conley ------- 2.04 Etc. Now, I can't tell you the merits of Defensive Rating as compared with xRAPM. I have to learn more about that to be able to talk about it. And, as I said before, we can have a discussion about who should be on the floor, Lin or Bev, based upon Net xRAPM Rating. But that's not the same discussion as saying the the "horrible" Houston perimeter defense is going to be saved by a potentially-somewhat-mythical Magical Unicorn Plus Defender in Patrick Beverley. As I said earlier in the thread, if I were the Houston Rockets and I looked at the data from last year, I would start Bev over Lin. But there's two qualifications on that. 1) Small sample size for Beverley that might not hold up once the league gets a good look at him (see Linsanity aftermath) and 2) Lin's performance last year seems aberrant, or hindered, based upon the recovery from the knee surgery. Meaning you may not want to make conclusions based upon how Lin looked last year. Lin has had a positive Defensive RAPM (+0.2) in his career, with New York: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2012.html And I have pointed out how his best career DRTG season compares with Bev's DRTG last year. I actually happen to think both Lin and Bev are good perimeter defenders. Maybe not GREAT perimeter defenders, but good ones. Adequate ones. As I said though, I do not now, nor have I ever, seen Patrick Beverley as a defensive savior. I just don't think that is a realistic evaluation based upon the stats currently available (at least the ones available to me that I've seen) as well as what I have seen with my own eyes in cases involving Reggie Jackson, Kemba Walker and Damian Lillard (although Patrick was admittedly coming back from injury here). It's fun to tell stories about how big the fish was you caught, or about how you "destroyed" the fish you caught, all of that. And the story may hold up for a time. Until, that is, you get up to the scales and measure the fish. The defensive anchors on the team are, to me, Asik and Howard. Not Beverley. Not Lin. Not anyone else. They are the anchors. Which makes sense when you look at Asik's 5.37 Defensive xRAPM figure from 2012-13 or Howard's 6.32 number from the same time frame. Patrick Beverley is a great story and a key member of this team. One whom I support completely. But, I'm not sure we're doing Patrick Beverley or anyone else any favors if we try to imagine that Beverley is a defensive deity while simultaneously pretending Jeremy Lin is a defensive buffoon. The numbers don't support either conclusion, at least as far as I can tell and at least not at the present time. Zach Lowe, and anyone else, can say whatever they want. That's their right. And if I don't agree with them or I'm not sure their conclusions are correct, then I or others are likely to express that sentiment.
Ok, that's cool, but someone actually on the team just said Beverley is a defensive anchor. <iframe src="http://player.theplatform.com/p/zT2_HC/iEazkwCwmKPM/embed/select/VOw3MD2N5UXb?params=zone%3Dcsnvideo&autoPlay=false" width="480" height="270" frameborder="0" seamless="seamless" allowfullscreen>Your browser does not support iframes.</iframe> http://www.csnhouston.com/rockets/casspi-beverley-and-d12-are-our-defensive-anchors According to you, the entire team, your favorite player included, coaches, scouts, analysts, and everyone else knows nothing and Beverley is in fact not a great defender because dRAPM said so. Has nothing to do with who he spent the minutes with(hint...not Asik) or defensive stats being highly flawed. By the way, Jrue Holiday wasn't the only "fish story." He did the same exact thing to Rubio in the Euroleague finals. He also had the reputation of a great defender in Europe as well. Weird, right? Not to most people, but I'm guessing it's weird to you.
The numbers are what they are. And I know what Patrick Beverley's reputation was in Europe. As you know, the Euroleague is not the NBA. And facing a 19-year-old version of Ricky Rubio and doing well is good, no doubt, but we will have to monitor the returns in the NBA. I know that Jeremy Lin had two games last year with 6 steals. I also know that in about 50 NBA games, including those in the preseason, Patrick Beverley has one game with 4 or more steals. And that came in his first-ever encounter against turnover machine Jrue Holiday. When those two meet again, I doubt that will happen again, as players tend to adjust once they have gotten used to playing a particular opponent. Kind of like how people adjusted to Linsanity. As I said previously, I'm not personally into Magical Unicorn myths. However, if someone wants to present me statistics or arguments, I will examine them and listen to them. Additionally, I know what I've seen with my own eyes. As I said earlier in the thread, I personally feel Bev is a better defender than Lin. Even if the stats may not definitively show that at the current time. And I think Bev is a good defender. Do I think he's a "savior"-level defender? No. Do I think he's a defensive anchor on this team? No. But I am open to being proven wrong and actually hope that I am proven wrong. Because that would be a good thing for the team, if I'm wrong on this. Someone mentioned in a different thread that a person on ESPN had selected Patrick Beverley as their choice for player to win Defensive Player Of The Year honors for 2013-14. In order to do so, not only would Beverley have to beat out Howard and Asik, he would also have to overcome something like 8 or so other point guards who had superior defensive ratings to his own from last season. I would give you their names, but NBA.com's stats are down right now. And that, of course, does not take into account players not on the Rockets and players who are not point guards (like, for example, LeBron James). So, once again, fish stories are good. Magical Unicorn myths are fun. But I would not hold your breath on thinking people will believe such tales until they see the fish measured in front of them with their own eyes. Or see the Magical Unicorn frolicking on the plain themselves.
I'm not sure you read my reply above, or if you did read it, I'm not sure you understood what I said. I laid out my reasoning fairly clearly, I thought, so if you would like to peruse it again, maybe it might make more sense on a second reading.
Well you just mentioned yourself he was recognized as a DPOY candidate by ESPN. We know from countless interviews that he's seen as a great defensive player by his teammates and coaches. We know analysts see him as a great defensive player. We know he was recognized in the other part of the world as a defensive stopper. Well, it looks like everyones seeing Unicorns but you. Come join the fun and stop putting so much weight in stats that tell you Beverley is a better offensive player than Duncan, Bledsoe, and Holiday.
Well, I complain about Harden's defense more than anybody because he is a "top five player" and should be ashamed. Still, the Clippers are scoring like crazy on everybody they play. Looks like a team that will do really well in regular season and have an epic fail in the post season.
I'm agree with Harden and Lin on their lack of defense but I don't think Parsons is that bad. His size helps and he can also turn it on. I will say that he doesn't always turn it on but come playoff time, I think he will be O.K. He did a great job on Durant, the most efficient offensive player in the league.
Parsons has started falling into the bad habits of over helping and drifting off. But his speed and length makes up for it
Its important to realize that xRAPM will not be particularly reliable for rookie players like Beverley last year. To understand why, here are a few things to keep in mind about xRAPM: (1) It is a hybrid stat that combines a adjusted +/- rating ("RAPM") with a statistical +/- rating ("BoxScoreRating"). xRAPM = 0.65*RAPM + 0.35*BoxScoreRating (2) Englemann's approach for calculating RAPM is to use 0.85 times the player's xRAPM from the previous season as a prior (as opposed to just starting with a rating of 0, which is how RAPM, as originally conceived, worked). (3) For all 1st year players, however, Englemann sets the prior to some fixed value. For defensive xRAPM, the default prior for rookies is something like -1.5, and for offensive xRAPM it is something like -1.0. The assumption here is that rookies are inexperienced and mistake-prone, and thus are likely not very good on either end. Now, using a poor prior for 1st year players typically makes sense. But for a player like Beverley, who was unusually effective as a defender last year, I would argue that he was likely being penalized by the use of the -1.5 defensive prior for rookies. Lin, in contrast, had a defensive prior of +0.17 (0.85 * 0.2). Thus, if Beverley and Lin delivered equal defensive performances last year, xRAPM would end up rating Lin much higher than Beverley simply due to this difference in prior. Indeed, Beverley could have played much better than Lin based on adjusted +/- for possessions just last year, and still have a worse defensive rating because he starts off with the rookie prior.
Not everyone would get Ws in Utah and Portland on the 2nd night of back2backs. As annoying as the Clippers loss was, don't dismiss the quality of those 2 wins. As for the Clips, keep in mind they did not dominate the Rockets. When you play to your level, an average, normal game, and a superior opponent shows you who is the bigger dog and introduces you to all your limitations, that's domination. Pretty much what happens to the Raptors each and every time they play an upper echelon team. The Rockets lost a game out of the 82 that was an odd game. Harden 0-7 for 3s, D12 with 3 quick fouls, officiating that wouldn't shame the bad days in the European competition before the Euroleague started. You would have a Polish and Greek clowns caving to the pressure of the home crowd in Madrid and no one would be able to get a road win against Real. What happened at Staples were some of the worst calls I've seen in an NBA game. When Nov ends Houston is 13-4. That is not a bad record to begin the season.
Nice. Thanks for this. Now we're getting somewhere. How much of an effect does this have on the final calculation, the "prior" figure? I think I'm not understanding how much that could shift the final number. Also, what I see with Lin is that from 2010-11 to 2011-12 he went from -1.0 to 0.2 in Defensive xRAPM. So if he was battling a poor "prior" number, then I would think that would have made him even more of a "Plus" defender in that 2011-12 season. The shift to the negative defensive rating last year for Lin also coincided with a decided drop in his offensive xRAPM. Again, to me, this points towards the knee issue. Thanks, Durvasa. This helps makes things a lot clearer, I think.
