I don't know exactly - JoeJoe might know about FanGraphs? I assume it's some combo of odds to make the playoffs and then difficulty of the potential opponents in each series? I imagine each team's strength is based on Run-Differential, though I don't know. For sportsbettors, obviously, it's the wisdom of the crowd, for whatever that's worth. Agree, if you're talking about *after* you make the playoffs. The worst teams have reasonable odds, and the best teams aren't ever going to be more than a 1-in-3 or 1-in-4 chance I assume (if we really cared, we could look back on past seasons odds going into the playoffs). That said, where a single player can make a huge difference is getting a team into the playoffs. Sonny Gray pitching 35 games instead of a team's generic #5 starter is worth a lot of wins, which is often the difference between in-or-out. That's where I think prospects have more value over the years than getting a pitcher for the playoffs. That said, if you can get a Randy Johnson type in 1998, that clearly moves the needle a lot more since SPs have an outsized impact in the playoffs.
Ok, they've lined up too many roster moves for Friday. I'm calling it: the Wilson/Verlander deal goes down by Friday noon.
Its only one pitcher coming off the DL. They can send any of Guadan, White, or even DL Bregman/Springer down to make room.
Nothing. Just an alternate explanation to why Morey hasn't traded for Melo yet. He's helping Lundhow get an ace. Stroman and/or Osuna are team controlled for multiple years. I'd absolutely gut the farm for studs like them.
They've got both Keuchel and Harris coming off the DL, and Springer and Bregman returning to the lineup. Oh, and they just happen to be starting a series in Detroit on Friday.
Take Neshek off the list, if he was ever really on it, traded to Colorado. Would have been a solid pickup.
He reminds me more of a Halladay/Verlander/Smoltz (double eta: all 3 of those guys got their first taste of MLB at age 21/22) I've never seen a pitcher his age with his feel for so many pitches. eta: some of you nerdlingers will enjoy this article, I thought it was cool: http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter
He's exciting. They also didn't need a super high first round pick to find him... which is why I'm not overly concerned that this regime can't continue to draft well to replace what they end up trading.
Team strengths are determined by their projected future WAR from Fangraphs Depth Charts. Playoff odds are then calculated by running thousands of simulations for remaining schedule and playoff scenarios. Astros odds once reaching the playoffs are likely a little low on Fangraphs at the moment as it assumes Correa hardly will play in playoffs as it assumes playoff playing time will be similar to rest of the season playing time. World Series odds dropped by about 3% when Correa went down (Projections don't like who his ABs are going to).
Dallas Keuchel is a free agent in two years and I think there's zero chance he'll remain an Astro (I think they'll be hesitant to pay tens of millions for a player in his "decline" years and, more pressing, they need to figure out a way to resign Altuve and, eventually, Correa and I think Keuchel and Springer will be the cost of doing that business). If I'm right.... how does that impact you're thinking?... Generally, I'm with you: they shouldn't blindly assume Keuchel and/or McCullers will be healthy and they should trust Fiers or Peacock or Morton in a playoff game game about as far as they can throw them. Maybe it all works out... but I'd feel better if they hedged that bet. BUT....... the cost DOES concern me. I'm certainly not in the trade-anything/the future's unknown camp; I think that's an indefensible position. I will be flat-out pissed if they give up anything of value for ~10 starts from Yu Darvish (or any other rental), for instance. Getting a guy like Gray - young, cheap and team-controlled - loosens my grip - but, man..... in five years.... I'd rather have Martes and Whitley than an empty hole where Gray used to be.
With Altuve likely costing more and hitting payroll as a free agent first, I'd flip Springer and Altuve.
No. He had issues last year and he has been shut down for a long time. I don't think anyone should assume health or a high level of performance.
