So what you are saying is that Gray's 0.361 BABIP is representative of his true talent level if I read that correctly. That basically assumes his contact management is so bad that he makes the average hitter look like Goldy. Whether you want to call regression magic or not is your call, but I can guarantee Gray's BABIP rest of the season is closer to 0.300 than 0.361. Walks are a little high, but considering all the stats you are ignoring, they are manageable as long as hitters on average don't perform like Goldy against him on balls in play for which he has little control.
Eh, a quality start is rather arbitrary.... In 8 of his 11 starts this year, he's given up 3, or fewer, earned runs and pitched into the 6th inning in 7 of those 8 games. That's *exactly* what the Astros need right now - a guy who can pitch late into games while keeping it close. Come on... that's silly. Gray has maintained a 9+k/9 in three times as many innings as Hoyt. But that's the thing.... he almost certainly *wouldn't* have the same results. He's yielded 7 unearned runs in 11 starts. To give some perspective, Fiers has the greatest R/ER discrepancy with the Astros: +4. But in four more starts. McCullers is +3 but in three more starts. And that doesn't account for Oakland having the worst park-adjusted fielding efficiency in baseball - how many of his earned runs would a better defensive have prevented? I think Gray would be significantly better on this team, and the team would be improved having Gray in its rotation.
I see the Red Sox are interested in Gray as well? Do those guys have an unlimited supply of prospects or something? I know they spent big on Sale... I'm not sure what other recent trade history they have but you'd think they'd run out of high end prospects at some point..
I think there is a little bit of a disconnect on this board with Gray. I don't think anyone disagrees that he would improve our team. I don't think anyone thinks Gray is a bad pitcher. I think the only real concern with him is that he has not pitched like a TOR guy for over two years. Sure point to BABIP, unearned runs, whatever... adjust all of that and he's a #3 on our team instead of the #5 that his stats currently indicate. And a #3 is not worth some of these packages that are being thrown out. Would a solid #3 be valuable to our team? Absolutely. Is it worth a similar haul to what aces have returned in recent years? Not a chance.
He was hurt last year; missed the first month of this season. Which would make him #2 because our current #1 is on the DL. Also, you need at least three starting pitchers in the postseason. I think people are getting waaaaaaaaay too caught up in #s. It doesn't matter where he slots in our rotation - if he's effectively pitching deep into games & can be a reliable starter in the postseason, he has tremendous value. More so given the health of our rotation, which both currently and historically, has been a giant question mark.
That's one of the reasons trading with the A's is favorable - they tend to be a tad unorthodox, in terms of return. They rarely favor top prospects; they tend to instead focus on lower-level kids with potential and high ceilings. I would guess the rationale is 3 18-yos with talent and upside >>> Alex Bregman. Quantity over quality. Same approach the Astros took to rebuilding their farm - they flooded it with prospects, the more the merrier.
Sonny Gray is just now returning to form. FB velocity is up. Throwing Curveball less, Slider more. Is he ace material? Prob not ... but he's a solid get.
Honestly, I think this paragraph sums it up. I agree with your first and third sentences wholeheartedly. I am president of the "We need another reliable, effective starter" fan club. I just think there's a differing of opinion on whether or not Gray is for sure that guy. And I'd want to be reasonably sure he is that guy before I made some of the deals mentioned here. I have no problem trading for him, nor do I have a problem giving up a prospect or two that will hurt. I just am not sure he's a "sell the farm" guy.
Have the A's changed that much lately? Billy Beane hated losing so much that he usually wants guys that can help sooner rather than later. He typically goes for higher level guys with a flaw that will keep them from stardom, but not prevent them from providing some value. He knows A's can't compete star for star, and as such typically goes after guys they perceive to be under valued (i.e. not top prospects that are typically viewed about the same between organizations with some exceptions). Beane has tried to get more average players at bargain prices to make up for lack of stars. When A's do well, they try to add talent at deadline to bolster their roster of mostly flawed, but average players. The question is which higher level guys do they value more than others.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017...erlander-trade-deadline-padres-brad-hand.html The Athletics do not feel a need to wait until the deadline to begin moving veterans, sources tell MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. That may be true even (or especially) in the case of Sonny Gray. While he’s controllable, and doesn’t have to be traded, a rival exec says he thinks Oakland will be interested in dealing him early to avoid a month of injury risk. Possible rentals Yonder Alonso and Jed Lowrie are both said to be on the block as well, unsurprisingly. The Padres, meanwhile, are apparently setting their sights high in talks involving southpaw Brad Hand, with one source telling Passan that GM AJ Preller hopes to achieve a return commensurate with that achieved last year by the Yankees for Aroldis Chapman. As Passan notes, that does seem steep — despite the fact that Hand does come with two more years of cheap arb control — but it likely won’t hurt to aim big at this stage of the proceedings. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/rosenthals-latest-cueto-puig-adams-blevins-chatwood.html A rival general manager describes Johnny Cueto’s potential trade value as “lower than a rental’s” due to the added complication of Cueto’s opt-out clause, which could make it hard for the Giants to find a trade partner. If a team were to acquire a normal pending free agent at the deadline and that player got injured or performed poorly, the two sides would likely just part ways after the year. If such a scenario happened to Cueto, however, he might not opt out, so the new team would be taking on a potentially diminished asset for the remaining four years/$84MM on Cueto’s contract While the Mets are reportedly open to dealing veterans, Rosenthal says that Jerry Blevins is maybe the least likely of those players to switch teams. Blevins is enjoying his second consecutive excellent year in the Mets bullpen, and since the team plans to contend again in 2018, exercising the $7MM club option on Blevins would be a good way to lock up some reliable left-handed relief.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/taking-inventory-detroit-tigers.html Justin Wilson, RP | Salary: $2.7MM in 2017; arbitration eligible in 2018 Teams might not line up for Kinsler should he land on the block, but given the ever-increasing importance of bullpens in today’s game, the same won’t be true for Wilson if the Tigers shop him. The 29-year-old left-hander took over for the just-released Francisco Rodriguez as Detroit’s closer earlier in the season, and while save opportunities have been scarce, Wilson has still offered quality production when the team has turned to him. After averaging more than a strikeout per inning in each season from 2014-16, Wilson’s K/9 has increased to a career-best 12.84, and he’s running a palatable 2.96 ERA/3.50 FIP/3.58 xFIP trio. There are some concerns here, including an elevated walk rate (3.95 per nine, up from 2.61 last season) and a career-low ground-ball percentage (35.0, down from 54.9 in 2016), but effective, low-priced relievers who throw hard are hot commodities. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/taking-inventory-new-york-mets.html Jerry Blevins, LH Reliever | Salary: $5.5MM; $7MM club option ($1MM buyout) for 2018 Like Reed, the 33-year-old has never looked better than he has when pitching out of the Mets’ pen. He’s currently setting down 13.0 batters per nine via strikeout with a 14.1% swinging-strike rate that’s easily his personal best. Blevins is also hitting the zone much less frequently than usual while battling through a league-leading 39 appearances. His value is enhanced quite a bit by the reasonably priced option year; the Mets have plenty of leverage, too, since they’d no doubt like to have him at that rate. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/trade-rumblings-pirates-hechavarria-gyorko-harvey.html Since the Pirates plan to contend in 2018, they could pursue a “soft sell” at the deadline rather than unload major pieces, Fangraphs’ Travis Sawchik writes. This would mean keeping big names like Andrew McCutchen or Gerrit Cole unless they receive offers too good to ignore, while perhaps being open to moving the likes of Josh Harrison, David Freese, Juan Nicasio or other bullpen arms. As Sawchik points out, the Bucs already used this kind of “soft sell” to great effect last summer, when they dealt Mark Melancon to the Nationals and unloaded Francisco Liriano’s contract on the Blue Jays. Pittsburgh received a good young relief arm in Felipe Rivero for Melancon, and the money saved by moving Liriano allowed the Pirates to re-sign Freese and Ivan Nova, who has become a rotation staple. (Nova himself was a deadline pickup last year, a sign that the Pirates weren’t merely focused on selling.)
We need post-Tigers Jack Morris. A guy with playoff experience who still has something left in the tank and just needs a pennant race to bring it out of him.
When I think about targets, he's the guy I keep coming back to for some reason. If Crane were willing to eat a large portion of that contract, I really think he could be had without a crippling return.
Last year is looking more and more like the outlier for Verlander - he's striking fewer and on pace to set a career high in walks - and by a significant number. BABIP is a little high (+60 over last year) and would likely regress - but I'd be hesitant to give away too much, especially considering he's guaranteed at least $56MM the next two years after this one.
A great man once said: I think people are getting waaaaaaaaay too caught up in #s. It doesn't matter where he slots in our rotation - if he's effectively pitching deep into games & can be a reliable starter in the postseason, he has tremendous value. More so given the health of our rotation, which both currently and historically, has been a giant question mark. I guess I just don't see why you seem to make every excuse for Gray and seem to be looking for reasons to knock Verlander. If all of our options are questionable ones, I'd want an innings eater with playoff experience and no injury history every time. And I think the contract, should Crane be willing to take it on (big if) actually works to our advantage in limiting what we are asked to give up.
Gray is younger, cheaper and has better peripherals. And I don't consider adding context to numbers "excuses" - there's ample reason to believe Gray's numbers would look better with the Astros. What argument would you make on behalf of Verlander?: "Well, as we know, it's totally uncommon for pitchers in their 30s to regress, so we should ignore that last year looks more and more like an outlier and instead focus on how he's a prime candidate to undoubtedly improve all the numbers that are otherwise getting worse. Plus, money is no consideration!"
How about Johnny Cueto? I think he has a player opt-out clause, so the price tag shouldn't be ridiculous for what might be a half-year rental.
Depends on the price. That player option seriously tanks the trade value. Cuz if he sucks, he op's in and then your stuck with a 4 year /$84m turd. If he's good then he's gone after the season. Kind of a lose, lose proposition if you give up something of value. I might be willing to trade a Paulino for Cueto knowing the risks, but not much more.
