I would not be so gloom and doom. Verlander and Morton would likely take 1-2 year contracts to see out their careers, and the Astros can afford to pay pitchers high amounts for a short time until 2022. Question is who are they willing to pay big money to over 4-5 years? Keuchel, Cole... they aren't no brainers like DeGrom or Severino.
I don’t think adding Abreu (who is really the only significant commitment, since Realmuto is an arb guy and Britton is a rental) will have any significant impact on their ability to extend Springer, Bregman, or Correa. My expectation all along was Altuve plus one other core guy, and making that move wouldn’t change that. I am also assuming Houston can sustain ~$180M in payroll.
No way I’m giving up those guys for Realmuto if I’m not signing him to an extension. If you don’t have him long term and you don’t have those young guys either, that’s step 1 towards being back to 2012 style
You mean 2009? 2012 was the first step toward the World Series. But either way, a players future free agency has very little bearing on his current trade value. Most folks on this board know I’m a huge prospect guy. But I think people forget just how bad the situation was in 2011. ZERO farm system, zero quality long term big league assets, just a roster of overpaid, aging veterans. Houston would have to do a LOT to be that bad, and with Luhnow at the helm they will never have a farm that barren no matter how many prospects they trade away. As an example, just take a look at the prospects in High A and below who received a signing bonus of at least $700k: IF: Nova, Cueta, J Perez, M Sierra OF: Celestino, Beer, Matijevic, Dawson P: Sandoval, Bukauskas, Schroeder, Macuare, E Rodriguez Most teams add ~3 of those types each year, so Houston has ~4 years worth of those guys just in the lower levels of their system. And they’ll likely get addl picks as their key free agents leave. So while I would be the last guy to advocate gutting the farm, I’m definitely in favor of maximizing this competitive window even if it means letting go of some really good prospects.
A's need starters, if they want to use their bullets to bolster an already strong pen, I say "go for it". And Bregman does not need 2-3 months to get used to playing SS again, any more than Yuli would need 2-3 months to remember how to play 3B. Give CC a month, see what's up.
I hate the Britton deal. I'm high on Perez and wouldn't move him for a rental that I'm not even really sure that we need. That seems not too smart. I'm ok with the other two deals. It seems like a lot heading to Miami.
Big Perez fan here, too. All I would do would trade for Conley and Realmuto from Miami. NO to Abreu, and while I like Britton I'm starting to think that's not necessary. Astros get Realmuto and Conley. Marlins get: RHP Rogelio Armenteros RHP David Paulino RHP Ken Giles OF Derek Fisher OF Gilberto Celestino C Garrett Stubbs Resulting 25-man, if Correa is hurt, for the playoffs CF: Springer LF: Kemp (L) 2B: Altuve SS: Bregman RF: Reddick (L) DH: Gurriel C: Realmuto 1B: Reed (L) 3B: Davis Bench: Stassi, Marwin, Marisnick/Straw, White/Tucker I specifically made sure the lefties were nicely spread out. Reed at 1B and Yuli DH vs CLE; Gattis at DH and Yuli to 1B against NYY/BOS; Yuli at 1B and Reed DH for the WS. Rotation: JV/Keuchel/Cole/Morton Bullpen: Lance, Conley, Devo, McHugh, Peacock, Harris/Smith, Sipp, Rondon The first 5 can all go more than one inning, plus our starters usually have quality starts, so I'm fine with 4 bench players. Harris and Smith I o not trust too much. Harris against CLE, Smith against NYY/BOS.
You've got 3 guys in the lineup that I'd be truly surprised to even see on the roster come playoff time in Kemp, Reed and Davis.
Do not trade: Tucker, Alvarez, Whitley, Col Perez. Everyone else is fair game. That should get you what you need bullpen and LF wise for the next 2+ months.
Um, this specifically said IF CORREA CANNOT PLAY. I guess you could put Tucker instead of Kemp, but Kemp has been an on-base machine and I think he will have earned his spot. Def put Davis on the bench at least. Reed I said only plays (in my scenario) in a series against the Indians due to their all-righty rotation. Do you want Marwin playing everyday? He's not an everyday playoff, he's a utility player who belongs on the bench. 2017 was a fluke for him, accept it. And I really like Marwin aside from last night's crap.
I could live with Tucker or Alvarez (but not both) heading out for Realmato b/c I think he's that good, and you have him for 3 seasons, but that would be presuming Springer is going to get re-signed. If you don't think you can get a reasonable deal with Springer then it becomes really really important to have multiple bullets to fire to replace an All Star caliber OF from young and cheap. Im the worlds biggest A.J. Reed fan (I thought) and believed and also a guy who wanted to keep villar instead of Marwin as a Swiss Army knife kind of guy but that’s just not how the organization thinks. If Correa can’t go it won’t be Reed. It will be Marwin. Just will. And I also don’t see Davis on the 25 man. Maybe Kemp. That’s not a value judgement by me of how I think the organization should handle things, that’s just me saying what I think they will do.
But why does Marwin keep getting everyday playing time? Davis ould still be fine. WHY, and especially against lefties (like last night)? He's a switch-hitter in name only. As a righty, maybe he'll get a few singles here and there but that's it. All of his homers this year have been as a lefty so far. His time has come and gone, he has regressed badly. All that said, Realmuto would be very nice to get. All I want (though if we can also get Conley then do that). We have to get better as other teams get better, and that's what we need to do given our catching situation.