Astros Trade option(s)

The way contracts fall off, keeping those four guys is definitely possible. Springer in 2021 and Correa in 2022 are the key ones. Bregman doesn't even hit till 2024...

Alvarez wouldn't be in a J.T deal (we would have to get him for cheap TBH, I'm on the I don't want him for any of my top 5 prospects) but I'd think he'd be in a DeGrom deal. Only because of Keuchel/Morton uncertainty. Keeps the rotation going through 2020 season.

What package would you deem acceptable for a DeGrom deal?

I've already stated Whitley, J.D Davis, Fisher, etc. as starters.

 

I love Kemp and wish there was a way for him to play everyday. Unless we were going to move Reddick or something like that, it simply isn't going to happen though without injury

Who would do...

Kemp, Paulino, Davis, Adcock, Reed for Britton and Jones??

Losing Kemp hurts, but getting Jones back covers your OF depth for this year and gives you another RH bat out there instead of the 3 LH

Davis and Reed would get chances to play everyday over there and Adcock is a decent upside arm. Add in Paulino who some still have as a top 10 organizational guy for us, but a guy with suspension and injury histories who has struggled when given a chance...

Seems like a good haul for Baltimore for two rentals, and outside of Kemp we would be giving up guys who even if they make it we would likely never miss having...and would upgrade our chances to go back to back greatly

 

Luhnow wouldn't touch that

While it would make us great this year, and add a great arm for a couple more...when he is putting the big picture together long term I think he sees Whitley as one of those cheap studs we will need while we start paying the big boys.

So I think it's all meaningless banter...but if you want to play the fantasy game, for the Mets to give up Degrom who is controlled two more years, they would want something like

Whitley, Alvarez, Armenteros, and another low level guy

They don't want to trade him, so you would have to blow them away

 

Soria has a career save percentage of 83%. That is higher than every reliever on our team except for Mr Ken Giles. His ERA is a run less than Harris, he's only given up 2 home runs, he is slightly better against righties, and sucks less against lefties. I'm not saying he is the dominant back of the bullpen guy we want, but he is an upgrade to Will Harris and has been a better closer than everyone currently on our team.

I hope we get Britton or maybe Familia. I just don't know how likely it will be with every contender wanting a stud reliever and the known difficultly of dealing with the Orioles and 3 headed GM of the Mets. Luhnow is not big on overpaying for a rental. See last year's trade deadline as the proof. Also, the bullpen arms available in free agency are pretty good after this season (Britton, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, Familia,Kimbrel etc) . That makes me less inclined to make a Giles like trade for an Iglesias or Barraclough.

 

None of those stats you just stated are very good indicators of how you should expect him to perform going forward. Soria is a solid reliever, who would join a host of other solid relievers (including Harris) should the Astros acquire him. There's little chance Harris' option isn't picked up next season, as even if the Astros wanted their pen to be more salary-efficient by replacing him with someone like Deetz or Ferrell, another team would gladly take Harris off their hands.

 

I think they pull off Raisel Iglesias. More of a window with him and we need a closer. We have plenty of solid 6-8 inning relief pitchers.

My bet is we pull of this deal... and it will hurt some.

Not big on rental players, even though I like Britton.

 

We need people that can close games. Over and over on this board we talk about how our bullpen is good overall but we need someone that can close games. Nobody in the current bullpen has been better at closing games in their career OR during this season than Soria. In fact outside of Rondon... everyone else is garbage at closing games.

Save % career Save % this year
Soria 83 82
Rondon 81 73
Harris 52 0 (0 for 3)
Devenski 40 44 (2 for 5)
Peacock 40 50 (2 for 4)
McHugh n/a n/a
Sipp 37 n/a


I WANT to get Britton or Familia... I'm just saying Soria would be an upgrade and is under control next year as well. I hope we can get someone better, but not so sure Luhnow will be aggressive enough to make it happen.

 

So who are you cutting to put Soria on the roster? You gonna eat Harris contract AND give up whatever prospects it would take to pick up Soria? You were talking about Luhnow's history at the deadline, well eating money and giving up prospects for a minimal upgrade sure don't sound like the kind of moves Luhnow has made

 

Perez can go down to the minors and you can keep Harris this year and then not pick up his 5.5 million dollar option. We can juggle the roster until September call ups. Prospects are leaving no matter which reliever we get, and adding a guy that is controllable next season is something Luhnow would do.. especially if he gets back money from CHW to reduce the cost of Soria next season like I suggested in my first post about Soria being an option.

 

Time will tell I suppose, I would be very disappointed if we gave up any prospect of any significance at all for Soria, I just don't see that as an upgrade at all. Not the type of deal we need to make

 

The skills necessary to close games are essentially identical to pitching in any other relief role. Players "can't close" until they all of a sudden can. Blake Treinen "wasn't a closer" in Washington, but now he is. Needing a "proven closer" is how a team trades Chris Paddack for half a season of Fernando Rodney because he went 17 for 17 in save opportunities (think Miami regrets that decision?)

 

That might be true on other teams with different guys. The Astros have given Devenski, Harris, Peacock, and now Rondon chances to close. Only Rondon has held onto the job for a little while.

You forgot to mention that the Nationals got Doolittle back in that trade for Treinen and Doolittle is sporting a .536 whip and 22 for 23 in save situations.... he's also under team control for the same length as Treinen with affordable options.

 

Devenski and Peacock have never been put in the closers role to see if they could run with it. Yes they both have a couple of saves, but they have never been put in the role of closer and failed. Sometimes you get a "blown save" when it wasn't a typical closing situation also. Neither of them have ever been given the role of closer and not held it though, not even close

If we had a couple of terrible relievers down in the pen I would get wanting Soria, if the cost (prospects/$$) made sense. Fact is we don't though, we have the second best pen in baseball era wise. Regardless of the actual number, we certainly do have one of the top pens in all of baseball. What we don't have is a guy at the end who can just slam the door shut, a guy that if we have a lead in the 9th then it's game over. That's why if we went to the playoffs with our current group Lance or Charlie would close. There is zero reason to add to the pen just to do so, let's add to the pen if there is a possibility of getting a guy who can become that slam the door games over closer. Britton could possibly be that guy, hasn't pitched enough since the injury to know but he does have that in his fairly recent history. So if we want to go after him and see, that's cool. If we get Soria, maybe he takes the closers role from Rondon...but when we get to the playoffs we would be going to Lance or Charlie still....and we would have added payroll and given away prospects

 

Britton for Fisher, Paulino (11-could go back up if healthy), and White. Fisher was part of last year's deal, Paulino+White replace Moran. Helps clear a bit of our AAA logjam.
Realmuto and Conley for Bukauskas (6), Armenteros (9), Celestino (16-can go up with more experience), Martes, Stubbs, and Giles (we pay some of what's left, they can flip for more prospects).

 

Harris has 3 blown saves this year, none of them have come as a 'closer' as they all occurred in the 7th or 8th inning, so it seems weird to claim that it's proof that he can't save games. I didn't bother checking any of the other relievers, because that's way too much effort, but you're picking stats that obviously make non-closer reliever look like they can't close. If we're using your method to calculate save% from 2016 to 2017, Soria was 2-14 in saving games, which just seems awful. Saves are also awful stats to begin with.

And I have no earthly idea why you think what Doolittle does in closing situations has anything to do with how Treinen magically turned into a closer overnight.

 

He appeared as a "closer" in one of the home games against the Yankees. Loaded the bases, then Peacock came in to collect the blown save. But Harris was charged with the loss, and still failed in the "closer" role.

 

Wasn't Devenski given the closers role early in the season when GIles was hurt?

I agree, even with Soria McCullers and Morton would be likely to get higher leverage situations in the playoffs. However, they aren't closing games in July, August, or September. We only have a 5 game lead in the division and lots of games against the Angels, A's, and Mariners. Plus we have to play the Dodgers, Rockies, and Red Sox.

I'm just looking at the Britton situation... pretty much every single team that is in contention has been mentioned as being interested in Britton. I bet the Orioles get a better package of prospects this year with Britton being a rental than what we had offered and apparently had a deal in place with last year.

Then you look at Iglesias. Based on the cost for Brad Hand you aren't getting Iglesias without one of Whitley, Tucker, or Alvarez. I don't see Luhnow jumping on that. Same goes for Vazquez in Pittsburgh.

Familia is a rental and might be had for a package slightly less than what it took to get Herrera. However, lots of teams want a solid closer but there aren't many left. Britton and Familia are the best rentals left.

That's why I was looking at the guys on the next tier down like Soria.

 

Luckily Luhnow will set his sights much higher than Soria.

 

Man you guys are making this difficult.

They can get Britton/Familia by giving up Reed/White/Davis level prospects and a couple of wild cards like Adcok or Sandoval.

This can be done rather easily. With a trade like this and the Machado trade the Orioles will have greatly improved their farm system and have a few MLB ready players coming back in the trade.

You guys are either overthinking this or just like the back and forth banter, which I am really enjoying.

 

Here’s what the buyers are up too

Dodgers-Machado puts them at the luxury tax so they are looking for cheap bullpen help. Marlins’ Kyle Barraclough, could be competition for Britton if they eat his salary, get a bigger return.
Giants-have little flexibility. Talking with Mets for Familia
Yanks-Need SP help. Happ mentioned.
Brewers - Need to significantly upgrade their middle infield. Brian Dozier mentioned
Braves-Looking for cheap bullpen help with an eye for the future.
Phillies-Need a vet IF’er. Moustakas mentioned and pitching depth. Barraclough mentioned