Sure, the Yankees could add Machado and win the AL East and beat the Astros in 6 games......... or Verlander/Cole/Morton could shut them down, and it wouldn't matter if there were two Machado's in the line up. When you get to the very best, against the best, it is often unpredictable. I am not saying that the Astros should stand pat. It would be great if they could add an elite rental bat and another top bullpen arm...... it is just unpredictable. This isn't the NBA... the same team doesn't win every year.
If Astros could figure out Severino then they have a pretty good shot at winning that series once again.
Yea that’s what makes me laugh about all the Yankee rumors with Machado He only really wants to play SS, the Yankees already have a very good one, and they are going after Harper most likely in the offseason. I’m sure he would agree to play 3B the rest of the year, but for them Peacock is a good controlled arm who could fill a rotation need if an injury occurred, he isn’t the type of guy Luhnow would trade while trying to win another championship. He is also 30 years old and not the age of player Miami is looking for
The AL playoffs will be such a blood bath. First, you have a 100+ win team that has to play a wildcard game just to get into the final four, then the best team in the league gets to play that team, while the second best team gets an Indians team that has 3 absurdly good starters, a pretty good lineup, and maybe (if Miller and their other guy get right) the best back end of the bullpen in the league. Then, once you get through that torture chamber/best out of 5 you get to likely play another 100+ win team that most years would be the betting favorites to win the world series. There isn't anything the Astros could likely do to "guarantee" a championship. This isn't hoops where the best team (at least matchup wise) almost always wins best 4 out of 7. Yikes, if the Stros repeat it will be b/c they are a great team and ran through the gauntlet. It is a good argument for standing pat, you already have the best team (probably) in a playoff series, but you don't really have hardly any moves you can make to move the needle. Even if you trade for a big bat or big arm and your team is a true talent 110 win type team, which is virtually unheard of, it's still less than a 50/50 chance you make it out of that torture chamber, and then you play a national league team that you are pretty clearly better than, but baseball, anything can happen.
At this point I want Houston to improve the current team not because I think it will make a meaningful difference in their chances of winning it all, but because I just want to see just how stacked they can get the roster. That’s not the way the FO looks at it (thankfully), so they are probably not all that motivated to do anything unless there’s an injury or somebody melts down.
Well if our recent picks continue to show promise... letting go of some of the fringe ML talent and a few of the top 10 prospects will certainly be packaged in a deal soon. Reliever I'd have to assume, not the pipe dream of Realmuto.
Crazy to think that the Big 3 in the AL - Boston, NY, Stros - are all better than they were last year, and they were pretty damn good last year.
I completely understand the desire for most to add JT Realmuto. He is controllable and cost-effective, in his prime, and plays a premier position. And te catcher position is one that our organization is thin at, with no immediate long term solution (as much as Stassi has been a pleasant surprise, I'm not ready to pencil him in to start for the next 3 years). But the acquisition price WILL hurt. The Marlins have no motivation or need to trade away a guy that they can build around. Imagine us trading away Bregman. We would have all the leverage if I team asked us about Bregman. We could ask for a ridiculously high price, and if a team doesn't meet our demands, we gladly hold onto him and let him continue to hit walks-offs in an Astros uniform. This leads me to the question, "Why shouldn't we include Kyle Tucker as the centerpiece in a Realmuto trade?" Realmuto is putting up offensive numbers that we would absolutely take from Tucker in his prime, which he may or may not fully realize. Realmuto is 27, and putting up an OPS of .919, OPS+ of 156, while also playing a position that is pretty devoid of offensive production (even the great Gary Sanchez, who can't really catch, has regressed this year). I'm not even sure that Realmuto's current season is Kyle Tucker's ceiling. So why do we collectively immediately shoot down any notion of getting Tucker involved to acquire Realmuto (I have thus far as well, but I'm not so sure now). If both players project to provide you with a very good .285 average, with 15-20 HRs, isn't it more valuable if it comes from the catcher position? Put another way, I'd take a duo of Kemp/Realmuto in our lineup for the next 3 years at LF/C over a duo of Tucker/Stassi. If not Kemp, I think it is easier to find offensive production from a corner outfielder as opposed to a complete, two-way catcher. I also get that Kyle Tucker comes with more control. But with out current team build to win now, and in the near future, one could argue that 3 years of Realmuto provides as much, if not more, than 6 years of Tucker? Ultimately, Realmuto is establishing himself as one of the most valuable players in all of baseball, so the acquisition price will hurt. But maybe we should still pay that high acquisition price?
My guess for Luhnow’s current thoughts: Monitor Tucker; if he’s legit then no need to add a bat. If he doesn’t look ready over the next 2 weeks, go get a rental bat like Granderson (unless you see something bigger that makes sense). Monitor McCann; if he doesn’t look like he will make it back, go get a catcher. If Realmuto is too expensive, keep tabs on Ramos, Martin, Perez, and Maldonado. Monitor the price on elite relievers (Hand, Britton, Iglesias). Shop Will Harris to be prepared to open up a spot if needed. Otherwise, keep tabs on all elite players being shopped in case a surprise injury comes up.
Astros could get Realmuto without giving up Tucker. Nor is Realmuto the type of player you give up a #1 prospect for. He’s barely even an upgrade of Stassi (#1 among catchers in OBP and the best framer among catchers according to Fangraphs)
Yeah, I'm not on the Realmuto giving up top prospects for a position where we are kind of set on thx to Stassi. The upgrade would be minimal in my eyes even though Realmuto has stats to support his case. I'm all for getting a few relievers though and an OF bat if Tucker isn't working.
Agreed. I think that'd be fun. In- Abreu (controlled thru 2019) Out- Fisher, Kemp, Martes, Arementios In- JT Realmato Out- Bukakis, Giles (to be flipped maybe by Miami), Martin, Stassi or Stubbs, Davis, Reed 2018 Playoff Roster JT Realmato, Abreu Altuve Correa Bregman Guriel/Tucker (depending upon if Tucker hits) Springer Reddick Gattis/ Bench- Marisnick, Marwin, Tucker/Guriel whoever isn't in LF, Stassi or McCann- depending upon who gets traded out, Straw (PR base threat) JV Cole Morton DK Order of leverage relievers LMJ Rondon McHugh Devo Perez Peacock Smith I honestly don't see a single hole on that team other than defense in LF (regardless of if that's Tucker or Gurriel it's substandard) and that gets fixed by Marisnick as a defensive replacement. Dedicated base stealer on the bench in Straw. Versatility in Marwin in case someone goes down, and a couple dangerous pinch hitters, but honestly, I can't see any situation outside of NL park for the pitcher that you'd pinch hit for anyone, except maybe Gurriel for Reddick or Tucker against a tough lefty late in the game. If you could flip Giles and parts for a left handed stud reliever I'm game. Smith is on the team b/c he's brought in for a playoff purpose, to get Judge/Stanton and guys of that ilk out that are righties. Also, I really can't see going past McHugh (and hopefully not even there) on the leverage index of a game we are trying to win. Then, next year your roster looks like this Realmato Abreu Altuve Correa Bregman Tucker Springer Reddick Gurriel- DH and Marwin role Stubbs, Straw, White (he can play 1b or even 2b to rest Altuve 4 or 5 times a year if necessary, Bregman is Correas backup and Guriel is Bregmans backup) Verlander Cole LMJ Morton Whitley Rondon Peacock Perez Devo James Deetz Ferrel Paulino I trade Harris, McHugh and Smith, let Marwin, Gattis, Keuchel, Sipp walk, resign Morton to 3/42 if he will do it, extend Bregman and Correa to BIG money deals if they will do it (like 7 for 150 which is huge for where they are in their service time, with them making 20 million in year one and not back loaded to entice them to re-up) and let Springer know he can either sign something like 4/110 or play out the rest of his club control and then move on. I think that's a workable payroll too. That's about 135 in every day players, 55 in the rotation and what- 20 in the bullpen. And then you've got the entire core 4 locked up extending your competitive window out to about 2025 likely and you've got Alvarez as a Abreu replacement in 2020. And you've freed given room to breath for some of the arms, with only Whitley being challenged to a difficult position (starter at 21) but have Peacock ready to step in for injuries. Along with guy like Brady Rogers waiting in the wings. Perez, Paulino and James are obviously guys in the bullpen who came up as starters if someone falters or gets roughed up. Then, you have to trust your development that you can replace JV or Cole. As when Abreu comes off the books you can give that money to the other guy you want here long term. I mean, if we are going to see how much we can stack the roster for 2018 and 2019 while also keeping in mind our competitive window and giving some of the talent a few, low leverage shots at developing into cheap cost controlled players.
Nobody desirable on an expiring or short-term contract would clear waivers. So the Stros would be looking at a sizable financial/time commitment.
That Verlander thing is the exception, not the rule. I think that's probably the biggest impact August trade of my lifetime (I'm 3 days short of 40 years old). That deal isn't likely out there 2 years in a row. Strange confluence of events. Any bat likely to be on the market to replace LF is likely not any substantial upgrade on just rolling with Marwin out there in LF again.
Regardless of when the trade deadline is, whatever he does in just 2 weeks isnt a large enough sample to conclude anything. Ditto for 3 weeks. That said, the Astros need to go ahead and do whats best for the team without much regard to Tucker.
