I don't think Marisnick is fighting for a spot, he's a lock. I expect him to get regular PA this season unless he is a complete disaster in the box. Likewise I think Presley is a lock given his salary. Grossman is the odd man out. To me Matt Dominguez and Grossman will be competing for that last roster spot, with Dominguez being the heavy favorite at the moment. If Gattis is in LF, there simply isn't room for 6 OF. If Singleton hits Marisnick will technically be the 4th OF, but we can slide players around to make sure that he still gets 3-4 starts a week, making him basically a starter. Plus it's a virtual guarantee that somebody is gonna get hurt.
That depends on how you value offense and defense. Zips and Steamer both project Marisnick to bat well enough to be a 2.5-3.0 WAR player if he played center half as well as he did last year. Zips and Steamer don't appear to project him to play center that much, though. I don't think all three of Carter, Gattis, and Singleton are 2.5-3.0 WAR players or better. I expect huge regression from Marisnick defensively. Even with the huge error in defensive metrics and small sample size, I don't think it is logical to assume his defensive value should be more than cut in half.
There's still a lot of metric work to do in terms of extrapolating and confirming dWAR, and I'm pretty sure this front office knows that. Additionally, with the constantly-evolving shifts/formations designed to mitigate poor defensive player's ranges, we're going to have to see a re-calibration of some of these dWAR numbers to account for the improved positioning that are in some cases resulting in outs which would otherwise be hits. Like I said earlier, runs scored correlates much better to wins vs. runs prevented by defensive position players translating to wins.
The reality is the team isn't benching the guy who finished #2 in the majors in HR. They didn't trade for Gattis to have him on the bench. They don't want a 23 year old former top prospect signed to a long-term deal sitting on the bench this early into his career. Marisnick is more likely to find himself as a defensive sub and starting games when Singleton/Springer/Rasmus/Gattis/Carter are sitting.
It's almost like people get so caught up in their own brilliant theories that they don't even pay attention to what those that matter are saying: Chris Carter’s going to start his spring training at first base, manager A.J. Hinch said Sunday morning. Carter, coming off a 37-homer season, is also going to play some left field — the position that Evan Gattis will be spending most of his time at to start camp. “(Carter will) start coming into camp … at first base, on the team fundamentals, the individualized defense, things like that,” Hinch said. “We’ll have him work a little bit early with some outfield stuff.” Asked Sunday what level of concern the team had about Gattis’ prior injuries to his right knee — which has twice been operated on, including the 2013-14 offseason — Hinch said the team would be keeping an eye on his health. “It’s a concern,” Hinch said. “You always want your players to be healthy. We’ll monitor it. We’re well aware of his history. He’s a big fellow. We’re going to have to monitor him a little bit, and when you wind him up and put him on the field, he goes 150 percent. We’ll monitor his volume a little bit. He’s got some special instruction from (outfield instructor Gary) Pettis while the pitch-catcher camps’ going on so he’ll get plenty of fundamental work.” The duo of Carter and Gattis will likely receive the vast majority of at-bats at DH, with first base and left field mixed in for both players. “You only need your bat to work on a DH,” Hinch said. “They’ll get plenty of swings too. We’ll keep it interesting for ‘em.” This was 1 week ago in the chron. LF is much easier on your legs than 1B or C, naturally, so it's no wonder why Gattis is starting out ST there and getting extra attention from the coaches.
I found this article interesting on the Vogelsong-Astros discussion, it updates the reason why Vogelsong didn't sign with the Astros after supposedly being close to do so: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer...-opted-for-giants-after-astros-decreased-deal Apparently, he felt 'uncomfortable and weird' during his negotiations with the Astros because they agreed to a 1 yr $4MM deal but then the Astros asked him to take less money after he took the physical, concerned by something they saw. Kind of like the Brady Aiken saga all over again...I wonder if the Astros medical staff is really conservative or if this is some hardball negotiating tactic orchestrated by Luhnow/Crane? Seems weird this scenario has come up now twice...maybe its not rare, but def interesting...
MLB Trade Rumors posted their off-season recap of the Astros. There's nothing new but it's a nice summary for people who haven't been following the Astros' off-season closely. Link
Why would this be weird? Teams change their minds after the physical all the time. It's only weird because it's the Astros. Remember last year how George Springer got held down because the Astros are evil? And how this year Kris Bryant will be held down because the rules are broken? Odd how the Cubs are not evil for doing the same thing the heartless robot Ludnow did last year.
As long as the rules slow teams to "buy years" by holding players down a certain amount of time, it will and should be a part of the decision making process
Yep, it's asking somebody to ignore all financial common sense in the favor of being nice. It's a business, and it's run like every other business. Likewise down the road if Bryant and Springer choose to go to the highest bidder, I won't hold it against them either.
I think the issue is with the media - there were a lot of people portraying the Astros as bad guys while the Cubs are being portrayed as just doing the smart thing. The simple solution for the players if they don't like this system is not agree to it in the CBA. I don't see why it's wrong for teams and players to each maximize the agreed-upon rules in their favor.
There was also a lot of purposeful mis-speak from the Astros, in terms of highlight Springer's deficiencies (and wanting him to get "minor league playoff experience") as the primary reason for keeping him down (when in reality, he would have been promoted sooner had he agreed to an extension). The Astros would have been better off saying nothing, and the media wouldn't have been as critical... also, Springer's advanced age (with no major league talent blocking him on those awful teams) made it a seem a little more "obvious" what they were doing. It actually is against the rules to purposely stash a player in the minors for reasons other than performance, so teams will never admit to it (even though its well-known that is what they are doing). The players association wants this to be the system... they also don't want younger players signing deals to get out of arbitration and free agency years in exchange for an early promotion (like Singleton signed). And the players association will always be strong enough to get what they want.
Possibly, but the Cubs have said similar things with Bryant - that they want him to work on his defense. Conveniently, he will have worked on that enough 12 days into the season or whenever that deadline is. It's no different than Springer. Everyone knows how the system works, what's being done, and what the teams have to say. The Astros aren't unique in that regard.
Yes, they have to... otherwise they'd be breaking the rules. Bryant is also a year ahead (developmentally-wise) than Springer was, so its a little less "obvious" as he's really only had one full year in the minors. The union could certainly file a grievance... but then it comes back to the fact that they actually "support" this system.
Here's the Cubs' comments. Anyone think it's geniune? The Cubs simply believe that Bryant needs more defensive seasoning at Class AAA Iowa. He has also been bothered by shoulder fatigue that has kept him from playing third base since last Thursday, and will sideline him at least until Thursday. This has nothing to do with money or future earnings, Cubs president Theo Epstein says - it's a genuine baseball decision. "Ownership doesn't have anything to do with it,'' Epstein told USA TODAY Sports. "We're making an organizational decision. And I'll be the one, as president of baseball operations, making the decision. "You never have a second chance to promote somebody the first time. You want to make sure they're in the right place. In Kris' case, we know he's ready offensively, we just want to get him in a good rhythm defensively. "We do a better job at player development than we do strategizing on how to save a few dollars here and there. That's what we want to be all about. We don't think we screwed him up, and we don't think we're going to.'' And Scott Boras actually admits that if the Cubs were going to suck (like the Astros last year), he's understand the move - it's only that the Cubs are trying to contend that makes it problematic: "So stop saying this is the system. If this was a losing team, OK, it's not prudent to bring him up. But Tom (Ricketts) talks about this team being ready to win now. And if you're ready to win, you've got to give them every resource to do it.
Right - that's my point. The Astros and Cubs both did the exact same thing. Everyone knew what they were doing and everyone knew they were lying about the reasons. But the Astros were criticized in the media for it while the Cubs coverage is more that it's just the realities of the system and so it's the smart move.
Well the Cubs would have to keep him down the entire year THIS year for it to be the exact same thing. Springer was also 23 in 2013, like Bryant is now... but got to spend 2+ full years in the minors instead of the 1+ that Bryant will endure. Certainly Springer was not the prospect that Bryant is at the beginning of 2013, but he reached that level within the season that warranted promotion. Again a more "obvious" situation that created criticism... also the Cubs are certainly being criticized as well, and the degree of that will go up if they don't promote him at all this season.
