The second wild card, currently held by Seattle is on a pace for 89 wins. Personally, I don't see that for this team next year. You two are smoking something better than I am apparently if you think they will.
They've been a 0.500 team the last 4 months without Springer for much of it. If you add a couple of $10MM/yr type free agents to the team and a few players like Singleton take a small step forward to balance out Carter likely taking a step backward, I don't see why they couldn't get that pace up. The difference between 81 vs 89 wins is winning one more game out of every 20. I don't think that's a huge leap. Not saying they'll be a clear wildcard team, but there's no reason they can't be in the mix, at least.
Your analysis takes every player we have now and assumes they will either stay the same or get better. And then add better players to that. Your not calculating for those players that will regress. Case and point, Castro and Dominguez to name only two that regressed from last year. I don't claim to know who and who will not regress next year, but its foolhardy to assume no one will. What your really saying is the 2015 club will be about 40 games better than the 2013 one. I am betting there are very few if any clubs to do that ever.
I think Altuve and Carter are the most likely to regress. But one of the benefits of having all young players is that, on average, they should improve. I don't know who will improve or who will regress, but the expectation should be an overall improvement. And then add your best hitter back into the lineup (Springer) and some decent free agents, and there's good reason to expect real progress. They had a 0.315 winning percentage last year. They are at 0.440 this year. Seattle is at 0.550. Basically, we'd be hoping for a similar improvement next year as this year. Or much less if you assume this is actually a 0.500 team now as currently constructed. I agree that very few clubs do that - but the Astros aren't a normal club. That's the whole idea behind stripping it down and rebuilding it from scratch.
If we didn't blow our 9th inning leads to the A's, we'd have a winning record within our division this year.
Bullpen could obviously use a strong arm. 3B, 1B, & SS are the biggest question marks for position players on this team. Problem is, it is hard to see us doing anything at those spots other than hoping for in house improvement. The other place this team needs help is an ace, which would give us a very good pitching staff, assuming Keuchel & McHugh can maintain this level next season.
Considering that help is on the way at 3B (Moran/Ruiz), and at SS (Correa), are we talking about a 1-2 year stopgap signing? As for 1B, Singleton needs to show he is not a 20pt below the Mendoza line hitter. As for pitching, I am all in favor of adding an ace type whenever the opportunity arises, regardless of minor league foreseeable help.
In fairness he said wildcard contention. He didn't say they would win the wildcard. The wildcard next year could be 87 wins or over 90. Do you consider finishing 5 games out contending? If so barely over .500 is contending for the playoffs. Personally I think next year is when they try to FINISH .500 or better and the year after go the free agent route. After next year they will know what they have with Singleton and others.
If contending is very broadly defined as your putting, then OK. We might get close to .500 next year. But missing the 2nd wildcard by 5-6 games could easily mean 3-4 teams being in front of us for that goal, which doesn't look too competitive by that view.
Bullpen! Lost so many games this year because of it. Bring in Mitch Moreland who is an excellent defender at first.
I think Moran will be starting everyday at 3B by midseason in 2015 if Dominguez does not vastly improve offensively. Agree on adding to the rotation no matter what your pipeline has in it. They have to improve the pen. I realize they didn't anticipate an entire season without Albers and Crain. Theoretically, Qualls is the 7th inning guy if those guys are healthy and I'd like to think we're 7-10 games better than where we are now.
I meant to add that I am not as optimistic as some in that I expect us to miss the 2nd wildcard not by 5-6 games, but by more like 8-10 games.
While I'm all for looking for ways to improve the bullpen, as it is a need for this team, I'm not a proponent of going out and buying bullpen pitchers. Bullpen production is pretty volatile from year to year and you're just as likely to find a bullpen stud from the scrap heap or your own organizational depth as you are from free agency. Look at the Royals. The bullpen has arguably been their biggest strength this year and the core of that unit is made up of a failed starter (Wade Davis), a 10th-round draft pick who was largely a non-prospect on his way up (Greg Holland), a can't-miss starting pitching prospect washout (Aaron Crow), and a career ~3.00 ERA guy that is currently sporting a 1.37 ERA (Kelvin Herrera). Point being, I'd much rather use free agent money elsewhere and roll with internal options and low-cost fliers in the bullpen. Sure, that's what has gotten the Astros to this point with overall poor bullpen production, but with limited resources, I'd rather invest elsewhere.
The non stats case for James Shields: - Since he is 33 he will likely take, and Astros will only be competing with, shorter offers. I' guess 4 for 80M could get it done with decreasing value over time (23, 21, 19, 17). - He has been part of two separate worst to first turnarounds in the AL - KC and Tampa. Brings the veteran experience of how those teams turned around. - According to fangraphs, despite his age, there has been no decrease in velocity the last 3 years. - if he does fall apart midway through the contact, the short term and reducing value reduces harm to the team in the "competitive years". Also his contract comes off the books at the time the young core pieces start coming up for expensive arb. or FA (Keuchel, Altuve, Springer, etc.). I say go after him hard early and lock him up. The Aiken comp pick and our #1 will be protected so we will only be giving up the Miami comp pick. Luhnow and Crane can also use this to show that the Astros are ready to win now and are willing to give up picks to do so. I wouldn't have an issue bringing back Crain and Albers as a belated supplement to the competent bullpen pieces. Assuming Strom and the doctors think they are ready.
You do realize that works 2 ways right, there is just as much a chance that guys like Dominguez, Castro, and Singleton ascend as guys regress. You seem to assume that people can only get worse. Some will regress of course, but some will get better. Given the youth of our squad, I would say it's logical to assume guys are more likely to get better than worse. A full season of Singleton and Springer, how can you say what we have with these two. I agree playoffs are optimistic and unlikely, but I wouldn't call them unrealistic by any means.
Point to where I make or imply that assumption. My point was merely is that you cant assume no one regresses from one year to the next.
It's a clearly a suggestion by omission that you made. You made it clear to point out that guys will get worse, like Dominguez and Castro did. Yet you made not mention of the guys that got much better, like Altuve and Carter that ultimately resulted in a net positive overall. True you can't assume nobody gets worse, but you likewise can't assume nobody gets better to balance it out.
