Luhnow's strategy involves: 1) Statistical analysis (a la sabermetrics) 2) Focus on building minor league talent through a quality farm system 3) Fully dedicated, 100% tank job over a 3-4 year period to initially build up that farm system In looking at the division, Oakland and Texas both employ sabermetrics extensively. The A's actually wrote the book on the system. Oakland is severely constrained from a payroll point of view, Texas is absolutely not, and has one of the highest payrolls in the league. The Angels have one of the highest payrolls in the league as well. My question is how are we going to compete in this division? If we're effective with our sabermetrics approach, you would think that we'd be able to best Oakland since we can spend more, but likely not the Rangers due to their ability to spend. Over the next 10 years, we're likely banking that our three 1-1 picks (Correa, Appel, Rodon?) will be the difference maker, and then thereafter we'll simply have to outmaneuver the rest of the teams, given our budget limitations (whatever those might be, depending on how much Jim decides we can spend...) Thoughts? What else am I missing as to how we will win in the division?
You've left out Seattle who is also spending. They have a decent minor league system. Adding Cano, while crazy expensive, will do wonders for their lineup. They're going to be much improved as well. This division is getting stronger and the Astros had better start making up ground. That said, given what the Rangers have spent, I'm not convinced they've improved. Prince Fielder, IMO, is due to start an early decline due to his "physique". I'm not sure that Profar is the megastar they're expecting he will be. They overpaid for Andus and Choo. Beltre will be 35 this season. I'm not all that sold on their rotation beyond Darvish. If the Angels don't show a large improvement, you have to think they'll blow it up. No way they can keep going on that payroll and continue to look up at the A's and Rangers.
I think points 1 and 2 are nearing completion and step 3 is something that may be done sooner rather than later. After this year's draft, I would expect us to possibly have the best farm system in all of baseball (considering we have Springer moving up at some point) with decent pitching nearing the major league level (Folty, Wojo, and Appel). As for counting on all 3 of our picks, it seems fair to think one will for sure pan out, two is reasonable, and three would be luck considering picks in the past and their success rates. I think it is perfectly reasonable to account for that and then realize what your team would have if they do. If those picks pan out, we have 2 great rotation pieces (not to mention non 1/2 guys already in the system), a premium player at a premium position at short (or third). As for the rest of the division, I am convinced that Oakland (out of all of the teams) will always be competitive. They draft and trade well while not having ridiculous contracts that strap them even thought they are a small market team. The California Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in California will have some decision making to do if they don't turn it around this year. They have a ton of money on the books to be a below average team while not having too much coming up from the farm with the 27th ranked system in baseball. Texas has a great current set up, but money strapped team with taking on Fielder's contract, paying Andrus, Darvish, Beltre, and others. I just don't see how this will work for them 2-3 years down the road. Lastly, Seattle is the wild card. Spending like it is going out of style, and that may work, but I am curious how Cano will do in a new stadium/division. Sure, we are in the toughest division in baseball (you hear me, AL East?), but I like 2015-2018 for our guys.
If the stocked farm system translates to viable MLB success, the strategy works. If it doesn't, it will be a huge failure and cost Luhnow his job. There are plenty of teams over the years with stocked farm systems that never did much in the big leagues. They definitely still need to build up the farm as much as possible to avoid the awful 3 year stretch that was done partly due to zero farm talent to begin with... but if none of it translates to a winning MLB team, it's pointless.
The first thought that came to mind was Kansas City. One thing worth remembering, though, is you have to be willing to pay those prospects that come up and perform (Dye, Damon, Beltran, so on...) and leave room for error. Since we all know not all prospects will be hits, you have to hold on to the ones that are. And also, can you surround them with smart FA signings. I think that will be the more telling thing with Crane in the next 5 years: if they are a piece away, will they sign a guy? All things considered, I agree with you that the answer to your question is huge, but the FA makes a huge impact as well.
Texas was routinely near the bottom of the league in payroll until they started winning, and then then they started spending. Anaheim has spent, but they have spent poorly (to be kind).Seattle and Oakland aren't big spenders, despite the obscene Cano contract The Astros don't need to be big spenders for a few years, but by 2017 I can almost guarantee the TV situation will be dealt with one way or the other, probably sooner and there is now way they don't have a good TV deal. Maybe not an elite deal, but top half of the league at least. You don't need to be an elite spender to compete for WS titles. Everything will of course hinge on the farm, because that will be our launching point.
This is a point that is often overlooked. There have been many elite farm systems that either failed to produce productive major leaguers or didn't produce enough to go from bad, to mediocre, to elite. You really need to have enough depth come through (Cardinals) and have sustained success or the window can close very quick (Cubs).
Sure, you don't need to be a big spender... but you do need to spend something... and spend smartly. Nearly every mid-market team will be getting an elite-like TV deal over the next 5 years which should level the playing field. Additionally, the days of teams just outspending everybody like the Yankees did are over... mainly because the Yankees themselves realize that the real reason they were successful for so long was largely because of the elite home-grown talent mixed with some free agents. The difference is that now if the mid-market teams want to keep their own free agents, they should be able to. The TV money is simply ridiculous, and MLB has done a great job of staying out of the way from team's making their own big local deals (and they don't have to include RSN money in revenue sharing). Bad news is they don't step in when the **** hits the fan as with the Astros.
I feel like we all know what the short term goals for this team are. Slow building through asset management & farm system. I'm all for this. 100%. Throwing large sums of money at the perceived #1 FA every offseason is for hacks. However, the real questions won't be answered for another 3 years minimum. Are we going to be a Tampa Bay Rays team? One that develops talent and signs vets at key times to fill out a roster chock-full of young studs. Or are we going to be a Royals/Orioles? Teams that develop a quality farm system only to see the team plateau as a 1st/2nd round playoff team because the organization won't round-out the roster with FA players, but instead hits reset by trading the talent they spent years developing for more prospects... It's going to be a while before Crain has a shot to answer those questions with action.
I think they're banking on Correa, Appel, and Rodon to carry the franchise. Correa honestly sounds like a beast in the making. Everything I read about him reads like he'll be an all-star caliber stud. Great talent with great makeup and work ethic. A franchise type player. Then you have Springer, Singleton, and Folty as secondary impact type guys. It strikes me as Rays type model but with bigger payrolls. The problem with the Royals example is that they never developed any pitching. The Pirates and Rays I think are closer to what we can expect.
A huge key is how do we do in the draft as the years move forward. It's great if Correa, Appel, Rodon turn into studs. But we won't always be drafting first. The key is going to be continuing to support player development, and hitting it big in the draft when we aren't picking at the top. I think it's obvious that when some of the prospects do hit it big (we hope) then we will have to pay big money to keep them. Adding that free agent piece here and there can be important also. The big thing though, is having a continuous feed of quality coming up from the farm. We had that at one time, and we were contenders year in and year out
It's worth remembering that the Cardinals had Carlos Beltran, the Rangers had Beltre, Sox had Napoli. My point is that they don't just add little dink and dunk free agents. These guys played major roles on their teams for just a few examples. As great as prospects go, it's hard to win in this game if you don't play both the farm and FA well...
The Cardinals to me are what this organization wants to emulate. Unlike the Rays or A's I don't see this organization constatnly looking to trade guys because they can't afford them. Over this 15 year stretch of excellence the cardinals haven't made one giant free agent splash. They build from within, keep their guys (or let them go if the contract will hurt them) and supplement yearly based on needs, sometimes via trade.
Berkman and Beltran? I mean they may not have been 100 million dollar contracts, but those guys were up for team MVP discussions in previous years. I see what you're saying. The thing that the Cardinals have done extremely well is trade for players with their deep farms. Holliday for Wallace and others? Yes please. Rolen for Polanco and Timlin? Um... yes. If we can keep a deep farm and make the right trades when we need to, that will be crucial. Trade the roadblocked players for guys that can contribute in positions you are lacking.
I think the most any strategy can give you is a chance to get better. Sure, minor leaguers often flame out. But the percentages say the more top ones you have, the better your chances of getting those that help on the ML level. I am not sure whether there IS another strategy out there (besides building the farm). Maybe fleecing other clubs in trades. But how dependable is this long term? Top crop coaching and development? Sure! But I wouldn't call this a strategy, more like common sense. Whether Luhnow's plan pans out or not. it was really the only road open to us given the status of things at the end of Drayton's watch if getting MUCH better and sustaining that is the goal. As important as strategy for future success is the personnel in the organization. No plan in the world will reach its pinnacle if these folks are incompetent. I would say that becoming an attractive haven for the top people in baseball will have more to do with sustained future success than anything. And much of this will be casting the shadows of the past and reinventing our image/perception in peoples mind.
When the draft is so heavily skewed to the worst team... meaning they not only get the #1 pick every round, but they also get the most overall money in the pool to sign all their picks... there is absolutely no other strategy that has the best chance of getting better. The problem is, it really involves the team taking a collective dump on all the current fans' chests, as they pretend they're "trying" to compete, when really they don't want a team that will finish any higher than dead last. They can't just come out and say they're tanking (just like they can't come out and say they're stashing Springer for $$$ reasons)... as questions of integrity, sportsmanship, and fan backlash will be rampant. The lack of a TV deal could end up really holding them back in this plan. Instead of being ready to virtually outspend anybody once the team is very close... they may have to continue to plan to be frugal. If they can't count on the TV money, they may be forced to trade arg eligible guys before they start making the big $$$ (rather than keep everybody in place... guys like Castro... till the team really becomes good again).
Wasn't a huge Drayton fan but we did have most of the best years of this franchise under his ownership. Hats off to him for that. Drayton's fault post our World Series appearance was that he kept swinging for a homerun to have the ball not make it to the warning track. After Crane backed out on buying the team a few years back and therefore outing Drayton as having the team on the market, his course of action then was to pull a McMullen and strip the payroll down to make it more affordable for a new owner to operate the team. Crane stripped it down some more to an embarassingly low level when he bought the team and that was a huge factor in the worst record in franchise history.
Agree with this.. And want to add that there are some of us who don't need the Astros to say what they are actually doing for us to say that there isn't any integrity in tanking and that the Astros are basically cheating the system and their fans by intentionally not trying to compete. It's sad to watch. It's a core value all the way down to T-Ball. Give it your best effort, respect the game (and it's rules) and respect your competition.
I wouldn't put it that way. The system encourages what the Astros are doing. How is that cheating? MLB sets the rules by which teams must adhere. Is it Crane's or the Astros fault that the only option open to them to get better later is to be bad now? Drayton tried to stay good without getting bad to do so. How did that turn out? Actually, the Astros goal is to compete at a higher level and sustainably than ever before. While I agree with your respect comments, I don't think perpetual mediocrity for any team is whats best for baseball as a whole. And often times, this is what a team faces for their near and perhaps long term future given the avenues available to get better. If we want to argue what real problems cause teams to take the path the Astros are on, we only need to look at owners/players agreement. Things like guaranteed contracts (one of many things) make many a team stuck in their own mud when said player doesn't produce, cant play, or other wise earn the money he is getting.
