I would do that deal; yes it is a ton of talent to give up but what is fair value for 4 cheap years of a top of the rotation starter? What will we have to give up at the deadline for a decent pitcher with an expiring contract, one of those 3 prospects? Quintana spares them from having to look at those deals for FOUR YEARS.
If that's the case, see you Reed/Teoscar. I'm hanging onto Tucker. Luhnow should do this trade immediately.
If the original plan had worked, it would have been nice. Oh had Appel only panned out, he'd be sliding into that coveted legit Ace role. We'd of been stoked about that Ace # 2 (Aikens) raking in the upper minors vying his time to hit the bigs at the latest 2018. But it didn't go that way Apples floor was a closer, and Luhnow traded him for one. Aikens was virtually traded for Bregman. A guy who figures to be a hitting machine. It's been written a few times that Martes is what they had expected of Appel. Quintana is a #2 or #3 guy. Luhnow should not blink. Obviously they feel they offered a fair package to the Sox. If Chicago can get a better deal, it's their right. But having a guy in the upper minor pitching like an ace isn't chopped liver stuff. You don't include a buffet with him. But the White Sox have gotten virtually kings ransom for their stars, so maybe they expect another one for Quintana. Boy I am glad we have Martes and Tucker, who I see darting up the prospect list very soon. Future still looks bright with or if the Astros trade them ( Luhnow needs to stick to his guns).
Tucker and Musgrove or Martes and Tucker for Quintana... then throw 3yrs/70 mil at EE and lets go to the 'ship.
EE reportedly is struggling to field 3y/60MM offers, so it might cost less than that surmised above. Personally, I'd rather move Musgrove and Martes (and add'l pieces) than Tucker, but I fear (and believe) that both Tucker and Martes would be needed to land Quintana. Regardless, this would be, to quote Beastmode, "stupid strong": Altuve - 2B Beltran - DH Correa - SS EE - 1B Springer - CF Bregman - 3B Reddick - RF McCann, Gattis - C Yuli - LF Bench: Marisnick, Marwin, Aoki Rotation: Kuechel, Quintana, LMJ, McHugh, Morton/Fiers/Devinski Bullpen: Feliz, Sipp, Gregerson, Harris, Giles What a f'in team. Even without EE and Quintana, we are in a very good place. Our window is just opening, which is why I think we may just hold pat, and hope Daz, Reed, and the rest of our system up their value.
Not only would our window still be open if we dealt Martes and Tucker for Quintana, but over the next 3-4 years, we'd probably be talking about multiple pennants instead of just trying to get one. Drafts exist for a reason. We can find our next Tucker a hell of a lot easier than obtaining someone of Quintana's ilk through trade. Some of yall need to stop over-thinking this.
The only prospect "lists" that matter are the proprietary databases that every MLB team has covering every player in every organization. Believe it or not, different orgs value different players differently (I know you know that)
yeah, i'm in the camp who doesn't love the package, but if it ends up being the only possible way of getting him, i'd be for it without much hesitation. if they are going to worry about losing these prospects potential production down the road, we are in trouble. this franchise has never won a world series. their concern should be winning at least one at all costs while they are in position to do so. things change fast. they have the ability to be the best team in the league right now. even if all of our players are still as good as they should be/blue chip minors leaguers develop to their potential in 3 years, we may not have the best team then. the rest of the league isn't going to be sitting around doing nothing over the next 3 years. there's no way to predict the landscape of the MLB 3 years down the line. what they can do though, is max out the current team and leave as little to chance as possible in questing for a ring in the next 2-3 years. the notion of people in charge possibly worrying about kyle tucker and francis martes' potential future impact on this team just sickens me. it should have a relevance factor of 0 to the front office. and maybe it does. still a long way to go this offseason.
Biggio, Bagwell and Berkman were all home grown kids that came up. Bagwell we traded for but in the opposite of what you are suggesting. He debuted for the astros. We are a mid market team. We cannot fill holes by signing people and trading 3-4 blue chips for one aging veteran. We must let these kids become stars for us. Martes has an upper 90s FB with an A+ curve ball. You don't trade that kind of talent. Why get ride of the thing we are trying to acquire, quality pitching.
The Astros have their core of young callups. The time is now to supplement that with PROVEN MLB talent. You certainly can fill holes by signing people and making trades. Teams that rely entirely on the farm rarely win. Teams that have no farm also rarely win. It has to be a decent mix of both.
We have absolutely no idea how much quality Martes is going to bring to the Big Leagues. He might project to be an ace in 3 years, but projections don't win games or bring home pennants. It's a crapshoot no matter how much the Astros want to believe in Martes......Quintana is proven. You have to pay for experience. Also, you mention Bagwell, Biggio, and Berkman and say we must develop youth. The Astros have already gotten more out of their youth than most teams.....are you ignoring Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer, Keuchel, and McCullers?? Every one of those guys is home grown talent that we developed. However, even those Astros teams with the Killer B's needed an infusion of free agent and trade talent. We didn't sniff our first pennant until we pulled the trigger on guys like Jeff Kent, Carlos Beltran, Roger Clemens, and Andy Pettitte. It takes a mix of youth, veteran leadership, and overall talent to get to the Promised Land, and sometimes in order to get there, you have to pay toll.
I get your point that we should be using prospects to help win now, but the idea that we should have ZERO eye towards the future is crazy, unless you're a fan of the 2007-2014 era of Astros baseball. If the idea is to primarily compete the next 2-3 years and then implode and restart again, you are right. But if the idea is to build a Cardinals-type sustained long-term run of success, then everything is a balancing act between the present and the future. The reality is that winning a WS involves a large element of luck - often, the best team simply doesn't win because MLB playoffs have a lot of variability to them. The best way to win a WS is give yourself a long window of consistent playoff appearances and hope things come together in one of them.
But the idea that trading key prospects leads to what happened in 2007-2014 is also a fallacy. Those teams failed to sign draft picks. They failed to continued to draft well. Failed to scout internationally. Failed to sell in years where they were clearly out of it. I don't see any of those aspects being an issue with this front office. Every year features a quality draft, regardless of where they are drafting. The Cardinals also routinely filled needs via trade throughout their consistent playoff window... in fact, those trades largely extended those windows as they often acquired core/essential players.
All absolutely true. I'm not arguing we hoard prospects or overvalue them - but you have to have balance. The Cardinals did trade prospects for key pieces - but they also held prospects to bring them up to be key pieces. I'm arguing specifically against this idea: This is a who-cares-about-the-future approach.
Certainly, balance is key.... but just wanted to dispel the myth that the 2007-2014 Astros happened due to them simply trading valuable prospects irresponsibly. Devoting resources and executing in the draft is the most sure-fire way of never bottoming out the minor league system. Also, there's the notion that the Hunsicker Astros did hold on to/hoard some prospects (or deemed them "untouchable"), when they largely ended up doing less in the big leagues than the trade value they had had they been traded earlier (Ward, Lane, Redding). Obviously, there's some luck involved. However, you have to respect the windows that do exist and capitalize on opportunities to maximize those chances when they're there.
