I certainly understand trying to put a team together that will be competitive on a yearly basis. That said, the goal is to a win WS, and as we all know this is something this franchise has NEVER done. As someone who's followed them since '68 I'd like to see them win a WS in my lifetime. Unless you're the Red Sox or the Yankees (who have major $$ to throw around) it's tough to be a serious contender on a yearly basis. There's windows of opportunity, and when you're in it you HAVE to go for it. Right now the 'Stros starting pitching (IMO) is good enough to win the division. Making a deep run once in the playoffs I think they're behind the Red Sox and Cleveland (and Cubs). I think we all agree with this, and that they'll need to add another frontline pitcher at some point before the trade deadline. As discussed it doesn't mean that Quintana is the only possible target. I expect Keuchel to bounce back this year, and be somewhere between his CY season and last yr. My biggest concern is McCullers and 1) his arm holding up and 2) if it does hold up him hitting a wall later in the season with IP (the most IP he's thrown was 125 in '15). I definitely expect Luhnow to make a move at some point. The question is who and when. This is my 50th season as a 'Stros fan, and again I'd like to see them win a WS in my lifetime. My father passed away in Oct (and he followed the Cubs since '30 as a five yr old), and missed seeing them win it all by a few weeks. One of these days. Season starts on Monday and with Baggy being inducted into the HOF this summer I'm hoping for a magical year.
As a long time, loyal fan who endured the worst 3 year stretch in the history of the game, frankly only MULTIPLE World Series titles will make up for the humiliation of 2011-2014. For that, my opinion is, screw the prospects, go get the best possible team while Correa and Altuve are still around. That said, I understand that longtime fans aren't what drives the bottom line, and that a longer term winner (who may never get over the hump) is more effective at attracting and keeping the interest of the casual fan.
Dude, its not whining.... its reality. The Astros have more financial limitations now due to their owner being cash-poor due to his desperation for wanting to be an MLB owner (and overpaying), than they do simply due to their market size. Sure, I suppose its Drayton's fault for selling a bag of damaged goods.... but its also on the buyer for being desperate enough to go all-in for it, without doing some homework regarding whether or not the network would actually work out. Of course I'm happy the Astros are good again.... and I want them to not only remain good, but be as good as possible now. A lot of that can be done with shrewd farm system development and reclamation projects... but as you said, and based on recent WS winning examples, teams are also going to have to continue to spend to remain competitive.
Actually, the Houston market needs a true contender to really get behind a team. The Rockets have been "good, not great" for years... the city has been on the cusp of re-embracing them at championship-year levels, but they either follow-up a stellar year with a dud, or just never have enough fire-power to make a true run. The 2015 Astros went a long way to repairing some of the semi-permanent damage the sucky years, and move to the AL created.... but the 2016 Astros, while good, didn't capitulate that full momentum (in terms of a rabid fan following). Also, not that I'd advocate for this, but they'd get more casual fans in Houston by bringing in bigger names, established players.... there were plenty of t-shirt fans from 2004 (after Clemens/Pettite) that happened to stick around till 2007 simply due to the bigger names.
Like I said when Crane got strong armed into the AL, If you can't afford being an owner go buy a couple of horses and stay out of my team. Looking back though, I've learned to love the AL. Hopefully one day, like this season, we can take advantage of the DH.
Picking at the top of the draft? What on earth does that have to do with this conversation. Let me try to get you back on topic by reiterating my original position. If you wish to decimate you farm system with a massive trade, expecting to replenish the farm system with 2nd/3rd round draft picks and international selections is foolhardy. Contrary to your assertion that Luhnow did just fine with Cardinals, an unbiased look shows that there is no way that he was able to keep the Cardinals farm stocked with these type of selections. As I pointed out, looking at his drafts will show that he was able to draft/develop 2 guys of this type that produced over 10 WAR in their career. That is it, just two. So while there will be an occasional "hit", keeping the farm supplied with these types of players is not going to happen. The success rate of international players is also minuscule. During his Cardinal days, he was able to sign one international player that should have a major impact, and would have had two if not for tragic circumstances. However, two in 7 years again shows the folly of expecting to replenish the farm with international guys. Again, contrary to your assertion, I have not ignored or excluded anything. I simply gave you a chance to refute my position with specifics, which you chose not to do. Instead you attempted to misdirect the conversation with irrelevant comments such as "They also acquired minor league guys who were developed and graduated in the system overseen by him" and "never for one second have I doubted his ability to build and sustain a farm system". Let's get back to my actual point. So I will ask again. Can you specifically tell me which of his draft choices were instrumental in their WS appearances or were used to trade for players that made significant impact? Alternately, can you specifically point to any trades/acquisitions using these type of selections while he was with the Cardinals? If you will actually look, what you will find is a few trades involving first round picks (Wallace and Miller), but nothing of significance involving guys from the 2nd round or later or international guys. So my point remains - you do not replenish the farm with these guys. Now, you can bluster and distort my comments about Purpura if you desire, but it doesn't change the truth. Besides the two players noted, all Luhnow drafted/developed outside the first round was eleven guys that ended up being nothing more than 1 WAR per year role players (You can claim I am "bashing" these guys all you want, but again the truth is that while every team has some of these type of role players, they do not have a significant impact on the success of the major league team) My comment about Purpura was that even he was able to select these type of guys, and he was able to do so at 'about' the same rate as Luhnow. Nothing more, nothing less. You can get your panties in a wad and take offense, however; I made no attempt to suggest that Purpura was a good GM or "would be equivalent". Quite the contrary. I was showing the folly in expecting to sustain the farm with these types of selections. Oh, and by the way, can you support your assertion that he "oversaw drafts (plural) where 'nobody' signed". Seems that in addition to trying to misdirect the conversation, you have a predilection for distorting the facts.
I like this post. Also, keep in mind that the beauty of trading for Quintana or Archer, it enhances our chances to win it all during this 3-4 year window. It's not necessarily a "go all-in for a 2nd half rental type of transaction." I'd very much like to experience at least one World Series win, but we don't have to stop at one either. With Opening Day around the corner, I'd like to quote one of the best films in cinema history: Jake Taylor: [Jake stands up] Well then I guess there's only one thing left to do. Roger Dorn: What's that? Jake Taylor: Win the whole fu***ng thing. [long pause] Willie Mays Hayes: [Willie stands up] Yeah. Pedro Cerrano: [Pedro pounds his hand] YES!
Dombrowski would deal Martes, Tu There are no real "draft wizards". Everyone that drafts well is doing it on the margins, or are incrementally better than the other teams. You can even go and look at teams like the Cubs and Dodgers and they have had a lot of misses. The advantage is so small that eventually a team that has drafted fairly well has a dry spell and the system suffers. The international market allowed for a larger advantage for teams that scout well and have money, but even that is drying up. I am confident that the Astros are in the top 5 organizations at identifying and developing young players, but also realize it is very much a crap shoot.
59, I would disagree with your assertion that Luhnow doesn't do well with late 1st round and 2nd round picks. Since he's been in Houston, these are who he's gotten with picks from 15-100: McCullers: current SP2 Fontana: on Angels 40 man Rodgers: AAAA SP Thurman: used to acquire Gattis/Hoyt Emanuel: TBD Fisher: fringe top 100 prospect who had an excellent ST Reed: #1 1B prospect in all of baseball last season Davis: TBD; coming off an excellent spring Cameron: TBD; BA top 100 prospect last year Eschelman: part of Giles trade Ferrell: TBD Dawson: TBD looked good in TC Rogers: TBD looked good in TC; Fangraphs prospect expert mentioned he is the best defensive prospect he has ever seen So out of 13 players Luhnow has chosen from late 1st thru 3rd rd, only 1 (Emanuel) looks like a complete bust so far, and he still has a decent chance to reach the majors. Other than that, 1 is a current member of the core, 4 others look like future regulars, 2 already contributed to the big league roster via trade, and 5 look like AAAA/bench types. I will take that track record any day.
I can see the benefits to both approaches. That being said, certainly looks like Luhnow is going to follow the approach that worked for the Cardinals, i.e., never putting the farm in a precarious position, not handing out huge contracts to stars after club control runs out (i.e., Pujols), and making key free agent signings that don't bust the bank. So I'd be surprised if we get Quintana. I think it would have already happened if it were going to happen.
Even though the "Cardinals model" is currently being discussed as a point of controversy here... it should be noted that Luhnow was simply in charge of the minor league system/scouting. He wasn't the one pulling off the trades, signing free agents, or giving out contracts. Also, the Cardinals did their fair share of large contracts (Pujols signed an extension after his club control years, and they locked up most of their key guys like Carpenter, Wainwright, Molina). Most of Luhnow's deals have (by his words) taken "months" to come together. I think he's quite good at taking the patient approach... sometimes deals discussed in the winter meetings are re-visited the following trade deadline or off-season. I don't think he's afraid to leave an ultimatum at the table and put the ball in the other GM's court.
So what do you think it is, that he just doesn't have it today (it happens), that he just doesn't want to play for the Sox anymore and doesn't care like he should, that the distraction of the trade talks have gotten to him, or that maybe he's not as good as advertised?
