That's the hope. I just am not quite ready to absolve all of Kuechel's issues on a phantom injury that he never told anybody about. I also feel it's entirely possible for him to sustain another overuse type injury. Best case scenario is that he has a Kluber bounce back year... even though Kluber was better in his "off" year.
You're right... especially since I meant to type pre-season... and it somehow got autocorrected to phantom. Or maybe it was freudian. Regardless, something was clearly off with him... but it still allowed him to pitch. Most guys pitch through 'something'. If his shoulder gets healed, what's to say his back/elbow/groin is guaranteed to hold up? He's pitched a ton, and he does rely entirely on perfect control/mechanics, which does require everything to be mostly "right".
If they accept any of the non-Bregman packages listed below, I would pull the trigger. As he writes, some aren't necessarily enough--so there's clearly an order in which I would propose them and a preferred package. And I'd do everything I could to try and force it to be package 5 and NOT to be package 1. http://insider.espn.com/blog/the-gms-office/insider/post?id=13713
Don't sleep on Perez. Do they automatically value Musgrove over Martes? I always figured the latter had the stuff that "could" be an ace, but he could also end up as a bullpen guy. Also, I suppose it matters a tad as to what the White Sox want.
Elsewhere on The InterWebs it said that the White Sox are now looking for bats since in their last two big trade they got pitching.
Kyle Tucker, AJ REED, Derek Fisher.. If there is a better bat to throw instead of one Fisher do that. Would we be okay with that? Or not good enough and they want pitching still as well?
There is a decent chance the Astros would do scenario 1 before scenario 4. I could be very wrong about this, but I suspect Astros value Tucker now about where they valued Bregman (maybe even moreso) at this time last year. Granted, Bregman had a huge power spike in minors last year to raise his already high perceived expected value. Tucker started hitting for more power in second half of last year even before Lancaster. I think Lancaster can mask power development sometimes as so many guys have higher numbers there that legitimate improvement is seen as "just Lancaster numbers".
Those are the types of deals I'm hoping the team will make. Package #2: Martes, Paulino, & Teoscar would be amazing. You could even through plenty of change in there.
I think this, more than Tucker, is the sticking point for the Astros: I can see them balking at giving up both pitchers. Musgrove was, essentially, a 1.5 WAR starter last year (actual: 0.6 in 10 starts). If you assume improvement and 25 starts... he projects to be a 2+ WAR pitcher, which is exactly what Quintana was in his first full season (2.5). That has tremendous value in 2017. So you're trading a (potential) Quintana-like starter, who's 23 (same age as Quintana's first full season) + a high-end pitching prospect who could, like Musgrove, potentially post a .5(+) WAR in 2017 for what is (probably) the back-half of Quintana's prime. Likely a short-term advantage but could be a significant long-term disadvanatge. I'm all-in for Quintana - but I (now) get why the Astros likely see both pitchers as too steep a price.
This is a year for contention. It's also not like Quintana is gone after one or even two years. I just can't see the reasoning. You basically just said you it would be like getting Quintana for two pitchers who MIGHT be Quintana eventually. When contending, take the sure thing.
I'm down with them paying significantly to acquire Quintana. But Joe Musgrove is almost certainly going to impact the 2017 season. He has the potential to be a very good BOR starter right now, which would represent an upgrade if he were taking starts from the likes of Fister, Fiers, etc. If he improves year-to-year, he'll be a 4+ WAR pitcher in 2-3 years when Quintana likely will not. If Martes realize a similar trajectory, you're talking about two Quintanas - cheap and under contract for years. *And* they want our top hitting prospect? That's a steeeeeeeeeep price and I can certainly understand the Astros' reluctance.
Biggest question marks are Musgrove's and Martes' true ceilings. I've heard mixed projections. Of course its a no-brainer to keep them when we're thinking one of them ends up as a TOR starter... but given that unlikelihood, and the high flame-out/injury risk of young pitchers, its certainly enticing to go after the sure thing while this team is squarely in a contending window. I think they're going to make an aggressive push to get a deal done... with somebody... but there is a possibility they'll have to pay more at the deadline, or if one of their current starters suffers an injury that puts them in a "must make a move" type position to not completely waste this season.
