Our farm system is still great we have a few guys that could be called up this year. The pitcher we got last year in the trade is supposed to be a great prospect that actually could be called up this year. Astros have always been able to bring players up from the farm system and have them perform just like Miller, Oswalt, Hernandez, etc. We should be okay with losing miller and it didn't have to much to do with Beltran in this case. It was more about his health issues.
Man, I hate to sound like the voice of doom and gloom, because I think the Stros are going to be good next year even without all the guys they're losing... but the farm system is not "great", from any objective standpoint it's rated as one of the worst in the league by the people who rate minor leaguers. Buckholtz is the guy you're talking about, and he was out of his league at AAA last season (5+ ERA) and needs another year to progress. Eventually, he should be a good #3 starter, but he's not in the 2005 plans. And he's the Astros best prospect. Chris Burke should contribute this season, but there are no other prosects in the minors that are major-league ready.
Actually i was talking about the Astacio kid they got last year. That's who they were talking about in the interview on 610 this morning.
Astacio is the real deal, and he's jumped over Taylor as the organization's number 1 pitching prospect. Taylor showed flashes last year of his vast potential... and he's still very young, so he's got time to turn it around. Also, we've got Troy Patton on the preverbial fast track thru the system.... he was our draft pick last year who slipped to the late rounds because of his signing price (but Drayton stepped up). As for Miller... how can anybody here who's watched him not remember how INCONSISTENT he's been throughout his career. There is only one reason for this.... his AWFUL MECHANICS... which any scouting report always said that it could pre-dispose him to future injury. Well, it looks like "future injury" actually happened last year.... and its his shoulder, the most important part of pitching. This is not something that rest is going to fix... he needs to either change his throwing motion (which could take away all his speed and movement), or he needs to eventually get surgery and face a long rehab... and then all bets are off whether or not he'll ever regain his stuff. Any way you look at it, its a bad situation for his career. His stats are amazing... but if they are the product of injury-causing bad mechanics, then its fools gold.
Don't you hire pitching coaches to teach better mechanics? It seems to me that someone screwed up somewhere along the line if his minor-league and major-league pitching coaches didn't work with Wade to correct his delivery.
He hasn't signed a bigger FA because of our situation. We're waiting on Beltran and Rocket. And I have no problems with that. Yeah you're right, they got huge deals. But I don't believe Miller is "much better" than all those guys. Based purely on "stuff", I think Clement is above, and Pavano is right there with him. Then you have to remember, things have to be based SOMewhat on the last year of pitching. Miller last year wasn't that great, and with his injury in question, you can' assume perfect recovery to 2 years ago. Clement was very good last year (forget the record, lack of run support), Pavano was very good, Wright was solid. Lieber is in the same boat as Miller (better year behind last year), but got to show himself a little bit at the end there and isn't as much of a question mark in terms of the injury. I don't think we're getting Milwood (please no) or Milton (I like, but I doubt it). But we're looking for a #3 starter, not a potential 1. Your'e right, Woody would have been nice. I think one can be had in a trade if not FA. Also, read Nick's post on Miller's mechanics relating to the injury, etc.
You're right... somebody did screw up along the way with him. But a lot of times, pitchers and batters (bagwell) sometimes have success with the unorthodox. Wade did, but now he could be paying for it. Its always a risk for ANY PITCHER to go out there and try and throw a baseball 90+ mph, for close to 100 times (or more) a game. It puts an awful strain on the shoulder... and the human shoulder/arm was never meant to throw overhand... that's why throwing underhand is a much more effortless motion. Also, changing his mechancis could also lead to a sharp decrease in his velocity, his movement, and his confidence... basically he could be a pitcher with good mechancis, but be not as good because it was that crazy arm motion that might have made him so successful in the first place. He never had any arm problems in the minors, and after the pinched nerve in 2002 seemed to be behind him, many people thought he may just be a lucky guy... his motion wasn't causing him arm problems, and thus nobody was trying to "change" him. Then he was inconsistent all of 2003... and then 2004 he got hurt. What can you do with a guy, when his previous two years are showing a sharp decline in both performance and health... you can't take that gamble right now in giving him a guaranteed contract over $4million. There's a good chance that he'll simply resign with us... or even have surgery if all does not go so well when he STARTS throwing in January.
Miller posted a low 3s ERA last season. He was really very good in his 15 starts, he just suffered from a lack of run support. I question the move to release Miller, even though I think they've misread the market for starting pitching, but I could live with it if I thought the Stros had backup plans in the case that they can't get Clemens or Beltran to sign. I don't see Clemens back here if the Stros fail to sign Beltran or a significant replacement, and so it comes down to the negotiations with Scott Boras. I think Boras has masterfully painted Purpura into a corner where he has no choice but to ante up the asked-for contract.
Actually, I don't think you can just look at his era last year... he was very very erratic, constantly putting guys on base, and somehow getting out of those jams... one can make a case that he was actually lucky to have an ERA that low. Both his WHIP and his K/9 innings have steadily declined the last three years.... he actually walked 44 batters in less than half a year last year, while his career high was 77 the year before (in more than twice as many innings). Also, last year he did probably the worst job of pitching "efficiently", and that's why he often never pitched into the 7th inning. If you did watch him last year, you can't look just at the stats... he would consistently struggle to find the zone, but I do give him credit for getting guys out when he had to (but I wouldn't reccomend anybody making a habit of this). If you didn't watch him last year... take my word for it... his ERA should have probably been higher (even more than the 4.13 he had in 2002). The most telling sign... watch Wade Miller of 2001, and then watch the 2003 and 04 versions... its not even close. He's just a different pitcher. (no longer throwing 95-96 with hard movement... it was 91-92 and all over the place).
Nick brings up a good point. When I saw Miller's 2004 stats in the paper this morning, I was quite suprised, because watching him, he seemed very mediocre, and sometimes, quite below average.
I doubt it. At a glance, The Sox could probably use another pitcher, but it would seem to go against Epstein's philosophy to do what the Yanks did with Jon Leiber. Miller may or may not be damaged goods. Epstein is one heck of a GM, he can do better than paying 4+ mill for a guy who may not pitch this year. I agree whole-heartedly with Nick. Despite the sparkling ERA, Miller at times looked downright out of sync, probably in large part because he was pitching hurt. I think the Stros are probably glad that no one will get to see Whitey throw a baseball till January. Purpura could not blindly commit the money to a pitcher who's 50/50 to pitch, especially with Carlos and Rocket still looming. We'll know the Beltran deal within a couple weeks (Jan. 8), and I'm guessing Clemens soon after.
Well the problem is that Schilling is out until at least May maybe longer which leaves the Boston rotation to look like this: 1) Wells 2) Clement 3) Arroyo 4) Wakefield 5) Halama or *shudder* Byunger Kim Not a pretty sight especially slots 4 and 5. Now of course it is a moot point if Wade needs surgery and isn't physically able to pitch, but if he is able to pitch, he is just as good as the Red Sox's #4 and #5 guys. Plus NIKE, Theo Epstein was VERY interested in Jon Lieber - granted his interest was only after Lieber showed that he was able to bounce back from Tommy John surgery (plus he pitched really well against the Sox in the ALCS), but he may have interest in Miller because of Lieber's success thinking it could happen again. It probably won't happen but it is being kicked around on the Boston Globe website.
Happen to catch Purpura's interview on 790 "The Sports Animal" (where Charlie P. went to) and he said it was just the Medical risk with Miller. You don't know if he'll blow out in game one or last the whole season. I guess if you have a incentive type clauses it might worth a flyer but definitely nothing guaranteed.
I was off on this one. Good call, Manny. On the plus side, this might put more pressure for Steinbrenner to get a pitcher rather than Beltran.
Wednesday, December 22, 2004 Miller to Boston By Jerry Crasnick ESPN Insider The Boston Red Sox have agreed to terms on a one-year contract with former Houston Astros pitcher Wade Miller. Wade Miller Starting Pitcher Houston Astros Profile 2004 SEASON STATISTICS GM W L Sv K ERA 15 7 7 0 74 3.35 Miller, who was 7-7 with a 3.35 ERA in 15 starts before going on the disabled list June 29 with a season-ending rotator cuff injury, passed a physical exam Wednesday in Boston and agreed to a contract with a $1.5 million base salary and $3 million in incentives. Agent Bob Garber said the deal will be finalized on Thursday. Los Angeles, Arizona, Oakland, Texas, Florida, Detroit, Kansas City and the New York Mets were among the other clubs that expressed an interest in Miller, who has a 58-39 record in five big-league seasons. Miller, who made $3.4 million last season, became a free agent when the Astros decided not to offer him a contract by the Dec. 20 tender deadline. "The Red Sox were right on it from the beginning," Garber said. "They flew him to town and made him feel welcome. That's what Theo Epstein does. He makes players feel wanted, and they want to come here." Garber said that he expects Miller to be ready to pitch by Opening Day. If that's the case, Miller will join Curt Schilling and new free-agent signees David Wells and Matt Clement at the top of a revamped Boston rotation. Article
Well in fairness, I do read the Boston Globe several times a day and they called this as soon as he became available. But it makes sense if you think about it: Boston loses 2 starters in their rotation from 2004 in Pedro and DLowe. They do pick up 2 FAs in Wells and Clement, but one of their starters (Schilling) is likely to miss the 1st month of the season due to injury and then you also have a very inconsistent starter in Wakefield. John Halama could have been used (and may still have to fill the #5 role) but he is a middle reliever and guys that are normally good enough to start don't become middle relievers in the first place as the quality of starting pitchers in the majors, especially those on the back end of the rotation, is very thin.
