Why is it weird? Especially when you consider Keuchel a strong possibility to be elsewhere after next season, it seems logical to try and get out ahead of that by addressing his spot in the rotation.
I think the BA updated top 10 for the Astros is more in line with how Luhnow sees the system than most of the others. A lot of the younger guys are in there now. I also think he is looking at the current roster and knows that there are quite a few guys being blocked right now, and if he can move those guys to get help for right now he is going to Fisher, Martes, Musgrove, Feliz, Moran, Paulino, Reed are all guys who are "ready" but none of them have a lock on a spot for us. They all have value, but if we can consolidate that value into one or two guys it's the time to move. Not sure what combination or how many of those guys it would take to get Cole, but it could be done without using Whitley or Tucker I have to belive
You can't worry about every possible worst case scenario. "We need Cole because what if 4 starters go down at the same time next year" - Ok well if 4 starters go down most any MLB team would be screwed. Especially in October. Nobody is doing anything missing their top 4 starters in October. Same concept if 6 starters all go down at the same time. At some point you're just screwed and the season is lost due to injuries. Verlander Keuchel McCullers Morton McHugh Peacock Martes Is pretty dang deep and talented and can be put up there with any rotation. The bull pen? Not so deep. Not so talented. Joe Smith is a good addition but I was hoping for more... Rondon ... eh ..
I think maybe having a separate deal in place for McHugh has to be a corresponding and parallel (time wise) move. I think that may be part of the hold up
But they did have 4 starting pitchers on the DL last year. And they survived, in part, due to guys like Peacock/Fiers. All of those guys remain as a high likelihood to have some sort of injury this year... and Martes hasn't proven anything. Peacock is excellent bullpen depth. If he's required to be used as a starter, it weakens that portion. As I already mentioned, guys like Devenski and Harris wore down as the season went on... in part because starters weren't going into the 6th inning very often. Quality starting pitching has a way of improving the entire staff. Quality/proven/durable starting pitching (which Cole very well could be) would have that exact trickle-down effect. And if they truly need more bullpen help later on, they can always acquire that throughout the season... bullpen help is literally the easiest aspect to improve/acquire as the season goes on.
I would hope Musgrove would have a spot locked up. He was fantastic out of the bullpen for us -- we will need him going forward. I don't know what to make of Feliz -- very promising a year or two ago, but never materialized. Same with Martes, but he gets more rope as this was his first year up. I loved what I saw from Moran, but unless we move Gattis, I'm not sure there's room.
Perhaps I'm just mis-remembering... but didn't Moran only play in 2 games (6 AB's) before he got hurt? I see a lot of love for him... in part because he had a huge bounce-back year at AAA... but he's still very much an unknown 25 year old commodity.
There is certainly something to be said for adding starter depth. I just disagree with the concept of having to plan for catastrophic injuries. "What if we miss 4 starters again next year" - Ok, what if we are missing 8 starters? At some point you have to roll with what you have and focusing on starters can take away from resources (money/trade pieces) that can go to adding in the bull pen where we were just so obviously far behind the other contenders it was embarrassing. Some of that can certainly be attributed to over-use. How much? Hard to say. I've seen Harris blow it in the play-offs before. When you're watching the play-offs and you don't want literally anyone from the bullpen to come in who wasn't a converted starter, that indicates a need. Adding starters does have positive trickle down effect for the bullpen but color me unimpressed with the overhaul to the bullpen so far.
And there are valid concerns about what they have. It's not about catastrophic injuries... or worst case scenarios... the fact remains that the Astros have starting pitchers who are definitely prone to injury. They could use help there. By that logic, every playoff team would be out there scouring for bullpen reinforcements. This was the year of bullpen exposure, as the pressure ratcheted up, throughout the playoffs. You want to massively overhaul the bullpen due to the handful of playoff games... and you ignore the 162 game sample size of what they did in the regular season, where they were called on more than any other bullpen in baseball.
Everyone could use more help and depth in the starting pitching department. The Astros if you throw in Cole, will have about 10 guys who can go in and competently start a major league game. That's immense depth. I"m not against making a move for Cole. I'd be excited like anyone to see it happen. I just think the bullpen should be more of a priority when it was an obvious weakness in the post-season and far worse than the bullpens of the other contenders we faced. It was a distinct disadvantage. Every pundit in the country recognized that. Anyone who watched the games recognized that. Did we overcome it? Yes, thank goodness but I think that is the area the Astros need to address the most and I don't think adding Joe Smith and Hector Rondon does it. Uh, no, some bullpens performed quite admirably during the post-season. I thought the Dodgers and Yankees were quite impressive. Did they eventually lose some games? Sure but that doesn't mean they weren't good. On the flipside, our bullpen was never good at any point of the post-season. Who said anything about a massive overhaul? I want to strengthen with a few really solid pieces. The bullpen wasn't that great in the 2nd half of the season... 162 games of great bullpen? Hardly dude. You want to just ignore how absolutely embarrassing and abysmal the bullpen was in the post-season? That's a pretty dang important consideration. The fact was we couldn't trust a single bullpen pitcher the entire post-season. You're just gonna pretend like that didn't happen?
Not gonna lie... he looks like a baby. In addition to adding Smith/Rondon... you're also getting a fully rested Devenski/Harris, who when "right", are just as good as any set-up guys. Giles remains an issue, but willing to see if he can build on the massive improvement he made in 2017 as a closer. I'd be happy as well if they could add another lefty... but these are things that can still happen regardless of who they add as a starter. They're not going to overreact to what was a bad post-season by the entire pen. They're not going to get rid of, or replace, the three main bullpen guys that carried them during the season in 2017. As far as starting pitching goes, they do not have 10 proven guys. Verlander, Keuchel and Morton are their current 1-3. McCullers has yet to pitch a full season healthy... and even when healthy, he has viable question marks. McHugh/Peacock/Martes could end up on both ends of the spectrum.... with Peacock being the favorite to pitch the most meaningful innings next year (not bad for a guy who barely made the 40 man roster).
