Assist Quality, the hidden perspective, Lin and Rockets

The 3 point shooter would actually have more points.

Lmfao

 

I don't doubt that. However, TMac was the epitome of a ball stopper. Whenever he had the ball everyone else would be standing on the perimeter or running a pick and roll play with limited efficiency. The TMac style offense wasn't going to win a championship because it was predicated on one man running the entire show. It also didn't help that he would NEVER run a fast break.

 

50% is just the shooting percentage of most post players. Quality passes to a post player should yield a much higher shooting percentage and also foul shots.

 

I appreciate the effort you put into your project. Without people willing to think outside the box, we would still just be staring at basic box scores.

Having said that, your measures are very limited and far from conclusive because known variables are not accounted for. We know that free throw points need to be accounted for, as well as points off of turnovers.

Thus, at this point it is like trying to evaluate the offensive effectiveness of a player without considering free throws and turnovers.

 

The question here whether correlation=causation here? The Rockets simply don't shoot anywhere besides in the paint or at the 3s. The few shots they do take from mid-range come from being run off the 3pt line(Parsons do this a bit), Harden iso, or simply end-of-clock heaves. Therefore you'd think that every Rockets assist would be high% ones.

In addition, one of Lin's best assets is his ability to push the ball in transition. And we all know transition shots are hugely skewed towards at-rim shots.

I'm not discounting Lin's skills here. Perhaps it's his skills that allows the Rockets to pass the ball inside more. Perhaps the Rockets shoot more inside when he's on the court. I have no idea. But at least with just the OP's stats, it's impossible to show direct causation.

 

That is true. It could be the Rockets' system that is causing the numbers to skew in his favor. By that same logic, however, I would expect that we should see Harden right up there as well (at least if compared to other SG's). If he is, then it is the Rockets' system skewing the numbers, if he is not, then maybe Lin is a better passer than than he appears (I'm too lazy to check though ). Although this is also numbers from 2012, and it appears at least that his passing has gotten kinda worse.

To his credit, he did have a couple good passes this game where teammates simply couldn't make the basket. But it baffles me how someone could have high potential assists but at the same time not have high assists. I mean, it just doesn't make sense. Statistically, one should lead to the other.

 

yet to grasp the stats.
but notice in the OKC games, there were three occasions (?) that Asik could not finish at the rim after Lin's feeds.
one resulted in a foul and free throws, but the others all gone to waste.

 

But why is he better than Harden?

 

Because he gets to pass to Harden who's the best SG in the NBA?

I just looked up 82games, which is easier to load on my computer. The stats only go up to 2/17 so not totally current, but it more or less support my last post. Harden's assist split was 37% close/35% 3s/28% jumpshots. And while Harden is a good passer, no one's confusing him with T-Mac or Lebron in this department.

 

hahahaha instant post of the year candidate. When being a math nazi goes wrong.

 

I thought this whole assist quality thing had nothing to do with WHO but WHERE you pass to.

 

My bad. Yes by straight math the 3 pointer would have the edge, however, points in the paint draw more fouls which would lead to more points.

 

Who you pass to does not affect the quality of the assist, but it does affect the result of the pass.

 

Epic re-fail. I don't follow your crooked math or attempt at a cover-up. Just so I'll know--what percentage of attempts in the paint involve a foul and what percentage of free throws do Dwight/Shaq/Asik (I left Yao out because you were cheating) make? To respond to your initial point it is not always possible to get the ball into the paint and Dwight is occasionally doubled. I still don't get it.

 

The three point shooter under these conditions would score just over 2 points more. However,he would miss 65% of his shots. A portion of these shots will then be converted into points by the opposing team via defensive rebounds. Only 50% of the shots at the rim are missed. If one assumes the same rebound percentage for each condition, then the rim shot might be the best shot . I have not done the math at this point, but it looks that the inside shot is better under these conditons.

 

Anyone in here with legitimate mathematics backgrounds? Being an amateur statistician is a dangerous notion. Most are ignorant about the mechanics of numbers, and it's very easy to get people to believe a result because it's supported by data in artifice. The numbers may tell a story, but they also may be telling another that the compiler is either unaware of, or suppressing because it diminished their desired result.

In any case, it's good to discussion going, but you will almost always get slammed unless you really, really know what you are doing.