Are we going to ignore that Harden's MidRange TurnAround Jumper is unstoppable?

Funny that you mention CP3, who is attempting over 6 3PA during his stint with the Rockets vs his career average of 3.5 3PA (and that’s factoring his Rockets 3PAs), significantly outpacing the league-wide increase in 3PA over the same period.

Big names are like dog whistle for Mauri that makes him forget for a moment about layups and 3’s (but, as we’ve seen with Me7o, only for a moment).

 

Season long stats mean very little in the context of a single game situation. Ignore my examples if you want, but I feel very confident that statistics have their place in the decision making process but they are just one variable among many.

They can be very decieving and lead people to think things like "Harden shouldn't ever post up a smaller PG who sucks at post defense because his season long stats say that he only has a 39% chance of making a midrange shot". Sounds good unless you really disect what that number means.

That 39% does not account for hundreds of variables specific to the single possession at hand. Now if you tell me that harden only makes the shot 39% of the time in the post vs player X when he is shooting 35% for the game on a back to back with CP3 and Capela on the floor and he's feeling energetic and the team has made 5 consecutive shots and the refs aren't calling fouls on post ups and the opponent isnt double teaming, etc...then I'll listen. Lots of variables are covered in that example.

What harden shoots from midrange over the course of a season doesn't tell you much at all about whether or not he will score or draw free throws against player X at that specific moment in time.

It's really obvious if you open your mind a little to what I'm saying.

Stats are not a substitution for thinking. That's the last I'll say about stats though. I think everyone has made up their minds at this point.

 

I don't believe that anyone is suggesting that something is going to happen exactly the same every game.

Noting what occurs over a large sample size is a good indicator of what's likely to happen. Certainly not 100% but it is the best predictor.

Making decisions because of something that has happened exactly once in the history of the league is definitely a bad approach.

 

You are right.

 

Yes, there can always be exceptions but basing your approach to depend on those exceptions occurring is a foolish approach.

 

Oh. I fully agree that Morey is a a genius and knows way more than any of us. That really isnt in question.

You do realize that Morey wants to avoid midrange shots because they are inefficient? So before you start advocating midrange as a solution to anything, remember your own advice that Morey knows more than any bbs posters.

 

No doubt about that. I have a masters in control systems engineering and will gladly admit I'm a moron compared to Daryl. Especially when it comes to stats.

 

Then why are you questioning his decision to avoid midrange?

 

I was there, I've only been to one Rocket's game since. I don't like to sit up high, lower the prices!

 

What I'm trying to say is when the 3 pointers are taken away by a smart defense, or the shots are not falling, in tough playoff games, why the hell don't they shot midrange shots, just because statistically it is not efficient!!??
Why not ? Especially with the defenses knowing by advance our offense is 3s and layups?
I mean we're taking away a whole lot of shots that actually can go in, and I'm wondering if they even practice midrange shots!!

 

Your post is not really relevant, because it's not a season-long stat and the rest of your post is based on that premise. The way reality works is: Harden has the ball, and regardless of what has recently happened, Harden is 100% aware that he nets more points and assists for this team if he attacks the basket. If it's not attacking the basket, he knows HE IS MAKING the next 3, because that's the mentality of a deadly shooter. Even if he personally misses 27 in a row, he believes he is making the next one, part of the reason he is so good. If none of those options are feasible, it is absurd for him to take a mid range jumper unless he will have 5 feet between him and his defender at the point of release - i.e. happens 10-20 times a season. It is absurd for him to take that jumper because he know, we know, and Morey knows that if the other team has dedicated such resources to the game that James M'Fing Harden can't get a drive or a 3, that means either Chris Paul or Eric Gordon are dealing with flimsy coverage enough to get a drive or a 3.

Now, what you'r prescribing here is even more ludicrous than that. What you're saying is that Harden should decide to take a midrange jumper at the BEGINNING OF A POSSESSION because a statistically-irrelevant number of possessions earlier made him feel that way.

It is not a season-long stat. It is a decades-long stat. Stats can be deceiving, and they don't tell the whole story. That's why you should try to understand them better. A team consisting of nothing but Harden, depleted Paul, depleted Gordon, can't-create-a-shot Capela, Tucker, House and Green have been the best offensive team in the NBA (minus the first 10 games). We have been smashing historic offensive records using this strategy with a team that's nowhere near the most talented offensive roster. A previous team, the Phoenix Suns, under this same strategy destroyed teams with offense. It took the absence of our 2nd best offense generator and our 2nd best defender for the healthy Warriors to beat us in the 4th quarter of games 6 and 7 after the players were so fatigued they didn't have legs to stand on.

Why do you think we are enjoying this immense success, batting far better than our talent? Why is the league copying our strategy of drives, 3's and only elite-level mid range jumpers? Do you realize how important it is for James Harden to go to the line 10 times rather than 6 or 7?

Harden is the MVP without being a good defender and the Rockets are the best offensive team without having the most offensive talent. Is it possible you are wrong and that you are just pointing to inevitable exceptions that WOULD apply to your strategy too?

The day James Harden starts taking more mid range jumpers is the day this team's window is closed till he retires. He will not be tradable and we won't be able to carry his defense. We need him to produce at a historic efficiency, and he is doing that, and you are literally saying to change the thing that made that possible sometimes.

I mean, yeezus christ dude:

Do you understand this sentence? Do you understand how you/humans make decisions when they don't know the outcome for a fact? What should you do? Do you get that gm's, players, ex-players, coaches, statisticians, mathematicians have virtually all come to the same conclusion and everyone is adopting it and those who adopt it are better with offense and those who don't are being swept out of the league unless they have an elite mid range shot - which Harden is far from having?

I always wonder why I get into these discussions, but literally it's only because I cannot fathom someone not seeing the answers even in their own sentences. This is not difficult. You say yourself that we don't know for a fact if a shot is going in, so how do you design your strategy??

 

I'm not. I'm saying mix it in depending on the situation. If you have a small PG on Harden then post him up some. If it's a bad matchup then don't. If the midrange is open take it. If it's not then don't. If 3's are open take them. If you miss 20 in a row then stop.

You have to play against the opponent, not the season average statistics.

I doubt Daryl said no midrange ever. He probably said not to build your offense around it. There's a big difference. We are seeing some evidence of a shift recently too. We'll see if it holds up or if it's an anomaly.

 

Same here. You don't understand. I'm tired of trying to teach you. I made valid points that you just want to argue about. Agree to disagree.

 

What impresses me more about this video is Ryan Anderson is playing in clutch OT.

 

last night against memphis green hit a midrange, gordon has hit a midrange, nene tried it, cp3 also , perhaps even hit a cuople , has harden tried it, cant rememebr right now?

 

ryan was a very useful player for rockets all the time until he went down with injury late in rs last year...
hell if the refs were unbiased we could of won championship with ryno playing minutes in game 7

 

There is no disagreeing with facts. It is a fact that this strategy has made Harden individually and the Rockets as a team historic, breaking records of people who follow exactly the idea you're espousing. That's why you can't respond. There's nothing to say other than "you never know!" or "it's feelings!". Everyone understands what you're saying. People understood it decades ago, there is no one who doesn't understand it, it's exactly what everyone thought before they looked at data, success, growth, direction.

But you're going to sit here and act like cutting out mid range propelled us/Harden to historic heights, and putting it back would make it better? Just think about it. Get some pen and paper. Meditate on the philosophy of what you're saying.

 

Nope. I wasnt sure either so I looked up the shot chart. Oh well. Haha

 

Did your shot chart also show that Nene and Paul missed them.

 

From the man himself talking about diversity of offense, CP3, and the mid range shot:

We did get one of the best mid-range shooters of all time," Rockets GM Daryl Morey told the Houston Chronicle in September. "I think it's good. It helps diversify the offense.

"I like scoring more points than the other team. You get more if you shoot threes or layups. It doesn't mean we're going to keep Chris, one of the best mid-range shooters ever, from shooting them."

This is all I'm trying to say. Diversity is good. I hope Harden continues to mix it in too.