[APBRMetrics Board] Scary +/- stat regarding our guards

I agree, and it's a two-way street. Yao's presence can make up for the defensive lapses of the perimeter guys, but at the same time, good defenders know how to play so that Yao's kept out of foul trouble.

At their best under JVG, the starters really moved as a single unit. The perimeter defenders made sure that the opposing team drove into the lane in a specific way so that Yao had the best chance of blocking/altering the shot while minimizing his chance of fouling. At their peak, it was a thing of beauty, but it took a few seasons for the timing and chemistry to develop.

The question I have now is whether Martin and Brooks can learn to complement Yao defensively, and how much time it will take to achieve defensive cohesiveness.

 

Stats- proven

Eyeball test - seen enough games


Praying a giant 7'6 player is going to make your 2 worst defenders on the team look better, while adding another PF who can't block shots = insanity.

 

I am aware of what it is and how stats work, and I also know their limitations. The final lesson in Econometrics for me was a rock solid regression analysis of two corelations that obviously had zero effect on one another. I can't remember what it was, but something silly like murders in belgium and sea turtle population. But I digress...

Here is my argument:

If you take 5 Kyle Lowrys and put them on the floor its going to be a terrible defensive team despite how good Lowry's D is, because it doesnt fit.

You can assign a "negative value" to how well a player has performed defensively with varying lineups but it does not mean that player cannot exist on a strong defensive team, ala Ray Allen in this example. Vice versa, you cant assume all positive value players together will be iron clad defensively.

To me the key is: What does it matter if you have one or two weak perimeter defenders? Either way there is a hole on the perimeter in which a ball handler can get by. The trick is to have a good defender who can cover for the one when he does get by.

How does Lowry being on the floor prevent Martin from losing his man? He doesn't. How did Ariza/Battier prevent Brooks was losing his man? They didnt. But how does Yao being on the floor prevent Martin from losing his man? He doesn't.....but he can seal off the basket. By having the right mix of defensive players on the floor you can cover weak perimeter defenders.

And this is my point. Neither Brooks nor Martin have played alongside a solid defensive tandem. So while there "negative values" may be low, I don't think this is indicitive that they will always be on bad defensive teams. And I think we can all agree the point is not to get the highest "value" possible, its to have a better defensive team.

Right now, for me, the problem is the Scola/Miller combo. I would suggest once Yao comes back, sending Scola to the bench and roll out with a

Brooks/Martin/Battier/Hayes/Yao.

I think you can be potent offensively and defensively with that lineup.

 

Well, of course this is true, and I'm not denying it. However, the stat tells you what happened, not some hypothetical scenario that could happen. It doesn't say that from this point on any team having either of those guys will be a bad defensive team. Also, from looking at these numbers, I ask myself, how many backcourts in this league need a stud defender in the post to back them up? Our guys were dead last according to that list. Every team in the league doesn't have a defensive eraser in the post. And over the past several years apparently ours were the worst among them. That's significant, and that's all I'm saying. How you choose to correct that is up to you. If I saw this stat, my first question is "is it telling the truth". For what the stat is, I believe it is telling the truth or at least exposing just how bad we are in the backcourt defensively, and/or how woefully inept we are at covering up those deficiencies.

It's easier for 4 people to cover for 1 defensively inept player than for 3 to cover for 2 inept ones on the court. A defensive presence in the post is needed, yes, and yes, Yao would help, but he could be in a world of hurt if he has to cover for both of these guys. I've said in other threads we need a defensive presence in the post, and that, more than anything is what we need with this cast of players and this backcourt.

BTW, there was an article written by Wayne Winston (wrote the book Mathletics, advanced +/- geek, worked for Mark Cuban and the Mavs, advanced degrees from Yale and MIT, etc) on his blog last season that showed the Mavs to have among the worst defensive backcourts in the league. He even argued that the way they tried to counter it was by signing a defensive presence in the post - Brendan Haywood.

 

Looks like Daryl "The Wizard Genius" Morey's calculator is broken.

 

Yea and even something like this.

Brooks/Martin/Jeffries/Hayes/Yao

or if Iggy was put in the picture.

Brooks/Martin/Iggy/Hayes/Yao

Make Scola (if he's around) the 6th man. This allows Iggy/Martin to play off the ball AND Brooks/Martin to play off the ball since Iggy gets like 6 assist per game and is a playmaker. That is huge with scorers every where. And he brings defense which is a plus. His plus/minus would be mind boggling. We would be considered undersized in our front court. So Bring in more balance Brooks/Martin/Iggy/Hill/Miller. While Iggy and Hayes above are undersized, they have an advantage off switching and great quickness/foot work on the perimeter where the defense is at it's peak.

Certain combinations will work with Brooks/Martin tandem. They are so good at scoring along with Scola they can erase any deficiencies in the rotation.

 

And it's been working no? Thats why they gave him that contract.

Basically this team needs Yao plus defenders at the 3 and 4 to cover a Brooks/Martin tandem. You need two post presence because Yao can't cover both Brooks/Martin by himself and leave his man especially with his foot.

 

Yeah despite all of that. I would rather have Brooks back and trade Martin after what I see for how he adds to wins and losses. He adds zero to winning where we know we can win with Brooks.

 

Yes, given the Rockets 0-5 record this year with Brooks, he's desperately needed to add that "little" something extra...