1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

[APBRMetrics Board] Scary +/- stat regarding our guards

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Nov 28, 2010.

Tags:
Page 5 of 7
  1. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2003
    Messages:
    58,949
    Likes Received:
    36,509
    There is not a single thread on the front page that you are not posting in, nobody is following you around, you are simply running your mouth simultaneously all over the damned internet.
     
    #81 SamFisher, Nov 29, 2010
    1 person likes this.
  2. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2007
    Messages:
    21,663
    Likes Received:
    13,914
    This is what I think it comes down to. (a little out of context, but w/e)

    We have heard from Morey that in order to be a contender you have to be top 10 offense and 10 defense.

    I know for a fact that Morey is trying to put together a contender and I know he specifically brought in Brooks AND Martin.

    Until I see otherwise, I have to believe that he thinks he can acheive a top ten defense with Brooks and Martin in the starting lineup.

    Just use ignore feature?
     
    #82 larsv8, Nov 29, 2010
  3. trugoy

    trugoy Member

    Joined:
    Nov 23, 2002
    Messages:
    1,383
    Likes Received:
    139
    Durvasa, correct me if I am wrong, but the way adjusted plus minus works, it favors/players who play in teams with a big range in talent.

    So if a team has two good defenders splitting time at the PG position, those two players would not be ranked as highly as a team with a good defender and a bad defender splitting time at the position.

    This should also be marked if a team has a bunch of good defenders and a bunch of bad defenders.

    Consequently, Aaron brooks and Kevin Martin were the worst defenders on team(s) with good defenders which makes them look especially bad.

    I don't know if they are the worst defenders in the league, I think the stat overstates this. But there is no doubt that they are by far the worst defenders on their teams.

    And now that they are on the same team, I think it's quite clear that they would be the leading candidate for worst defensive backcourt in the league.

    This is made worse of course by the fact that their backups are good defenders.
     
    #83 trugoy, Nov 29, 2010
  4. abc2007

    abc2007 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    8,303
    Likes Received:
    64
    I blame Morey and Adelman to put Martin and Brooks together. Morey is a stats expert, how could he ignore this? Adelman has coached many years in this league, and why does he prefer the duo?!
     
    #84 abc2007, Nov 29, 2010
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,010
    Likes Received:
    15,479
    It adjusts for teammates, true, but there is more subtlety involved. It tries to model each player's +/- impact as independent of who he is playing alongside. But we know that in basketball, players simply defend better with some players and worse with others. So there is a player interaction component that is involved too, and APM (at least the publicly available variants that I've seen) doesn't incorporate that.

    From your link:

    [rquoter]
    Player Interactions. One of the most frequently encountered questions about the adjusted plus-minus model concerns the fact that some players seem to be much more effective when they’re on the court with a specific teammate, and much less effective with others. For example, two seasons ago it was widely believed that Damon Jones was very effective when on the court in tandem with Shaq (whose inside presence commanded double-teams that often left Jones free to nail open 3-pointers), but not very effective in most other situations. In statistical terms, this is the equivalent of claiming that the main plus-minus effect of Jones was modified by a significant Jones-by-Shaq interaction effect.

    Luckily, the adjusted plus-minus model is perfectly capable of detecting and accurately estimating such player-by-player interactions whenever they exist. It’s simply a matter of adding the appropriate interaction terms to the statistical analysis and evaluating them. I am now in the process of conducting such analyses with last season’s data, but it’s been a slow, tedious, time-consuming process, so I may not have any final results to report for a couple months. I’ll be sure to add an update (with accompanying Table), however, just as soon as those analyses are completed.
    [/rquoter]

    To my knowledge, Ilardi never publicized his results with player interactions. I think he took a job with an NBA team, so any of his findings now belongs to them.
     
    #85 durvasa, Nov 29, 2010
  6. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 20, 2005
    Messages:
    6,116
    Likes Received:
    2,461
    I think it's sad anyone has to use the ignore feature. I see why it's there but that's just crazy...

    Either way, both Brooks and Martin can't guard worth a damn. I don't care who they play with.
     
    #86 CheezeyBoy22, Nov 29, 2010
  7. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Insufferable 98er
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2000
    Messages:
    68,689
    Likes Received:
    46,155
    SamFisher
    Contributing Member

    Since: Apr 2003
    Posts: 30,026
     
    #87 AroundTheWorld, Nov 29, 2010
  8. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 1999
    Messages:
    124,158
    Likes Received:
    33,033
    Ugh, more personal jibberish, that is why he is on my ignore....I am on a Rockets message board talking hoops.

    Not sure why it bugs him so much.

    Yes, I post a lot, whoopdeedoo !!

    And I am not in every thread, but I am trying...

    ;)

    Probably half of them are about me......he is obsessed......watch he won't be able to stop posting about me, his next few will have some comment about me, and not the topic......bizzare.

    DD
     
    #88 DaDakota, Nov 29, 2010
  9. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2007
    Messages:
    21,663
    Likes Received:
    13,914
    Some interesting notes from that list.

    Budinger and Scola are also very low.

    Ray Allen is EXTREMELY low yet can exist on a very good defensive team.

    There are some good defenders on that list that have low defensive ratings.
     
    #89 larsv8, Nov 29, 2010
  10. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,010
    Likes Received:
    15,479
    DD, if it simply said that Brooks and Martin were below average defenders (like, bottom 1/3rd), I wouldn't think much of it. Dead last is a red flag. That's not interpreting it as a bible. What I said from the beginning is that it could be a huge coincidence (because its not an exact ordering and it could be way off on some players), or it could be indicative of a major problem.

    If you're interested in how the model rated the other players, you can click the link.
     
    #90 durvasa, Nov 29, 2010
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2006
    Messages:
    38,010
    Likes Received:
    15,479
    Which is not unexpected, and doesn't change my point that having our two starting guards right at the bottom of a list with hundreds of players is a red flag.
     
    #91 durvasa, Nov 29, 2010
  12. abc2007

    abc2007 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    8,303
    Likes Received:
    64
    Agreed.

     
    #92 abc2007, Nov 29, 2010
  13. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2007
    Messages:
    21,663
    Likes Received:
    13,914
    Thats true, it is a red flag.
     
    #93 larsv8, Nov 29, 2010
  14. rocketsregle

    rocketsregle Contributing Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    2,027
    Likes Received:
    10
    I've had the hunch from the home opener against Denver that one of them needs to come off the bench. Either start Lee or start Lowry. I look at it like having Landry and Scola together in a lineup. They are just a bad tandum to have defensively.
     
    #94 rocketsregle, Nov 29, 2010
  15. Williamson

    Williamson JOSH CHRISTOPHER ONLY FAN
    Supporting Member Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2002
    Messages:
    15,294
    Likes Received:
    18,546
    I know you love Brooks, but c'mon. Be reasonable. At least the Rockets were an excellent defensive team for the first few years Brooks was in the league. So this is a valid statistic in regards to Martin (whom you have been less than supportive of lately) but you claim this isn't a valid assessment of Brooks because he had to play with Hayes.

    So let me ask you this, who exactly was the defensive stalwart in Sacramento that Martin played beside that makes this a valid point of criticism of him when we can't use these statistics to judge Brooks because he played beside Hayes (one of the best defenders in the league, I might add)? I haven't looked it up, but I would be shocked if the Kings ranked better than the worst 10 teams in the league defensively in ANY of the previous 5 years.
     
    #95 Williamson, Nov 29, 2010
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2010
  16. ashishduh

    ashishduh Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2010
    Messages:
    1,980
    Likes Received:
    61
    Completely incorrect, you're thinkng of on/off court not +/-.

    Here's my explanation of adjusted +/-, i will assume everyone plays the same amount of minutes to avoid confusion. AB and Yao play 40 mins per game. They play together for 20 of those minutes, netting +10 during that time. In the 20 mins AB plays without Yao he goes -5 and Yao goes +5 in his time without AB. Adjusted +/- will conclude that Yao is a far better defender than AB.

    Now, this is obviously not a big enough sample size so we have to compare every single combo of players, Scola vs Ish, Hill vs Bud, etc. And we come up with a vey accurate way of ranking the players in terms of effectiveness.
     
    #96 ashishduh, Nov 29, 2010
  17. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 1999
    Messages:
    124,158
    Likes Received:
    33,033
    Of course I concur...I don't think Brooks is a good defender at all, I just think he can be part of a good defensive team like Ray Allen is....

    And I think you nailed it about Kmart, that is probably what the team is hoping for, that Yao comes back and shores up the paint and they get a lot better defensively with both of them.

    As good as some claim Lowry to be on defense he has been getting lit up, which proves my point about the perimeter, it is tough out there with those new rules etc....paint D is more important.

    DD
     
    #97 DaDakota, Nov 29, 2010
  18. abc2007

    abc2007 Member

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2007
    Messages:
    8,303
    Likes Received:
    64
    Ray Allen is not a bad defender. If you watched the finals these years, you would see that he defended Kobe quite well.

     
    #98 abc2007, Nov 29, 2010
  19. melvimbe

    melvimbe Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2010
    Messages:
    554
    Likes Received:
    22
    I don't think you can rank players in something as broad as 'defense' without it being subjective. There are way too many skills involved, and way too much player interacation. It's best judged subjectively.

    Taking the Yao Ming/AB example, I don't think you can flat out say that Yao is a better defender based on stats alone. Ask Yao to D up a PG (or Boozer) and his defense will be horrible. Ask AB to defend a center and it's laughable. Even the adjusted stats have some flaws. Perhaps AB doesn't have confidence in Yao as a shotblocker or is concerned about Yao's fouls...so he compensates by putting more into D when Yao is on the floor. Maybe Adleman doesn't want to double team when AB gets posted on...but he should. Maybe AB is so quick on defense that his defenders strategy is to let him go by and have the bigs deal with it...thus allowing the defender to put more into his offensive game.

    Yes, I know it's reaching, and AB isn't a good defender, but there are factors that can be changed to compensate that.
     
    #99 melvimbe, Nov 29, 2010
  20. larsv8

    larsv8 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2007
    Messages:
    21,663
    Likes Received:
    13,914
    Allen is not a good defender.

    And thats the whole point, this list says he is a very bad defender, yet he can still be on a very good defensive team.
     
    #100 larsv8, Nov 29, 2010
(You must log in or sign up to post here.)
Page 5 of 7

Share This Page

Toggle Width
Style
ClutchFans Original

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Rockets Content

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now