Regarding preorder expectations - An analyst(Ben Kallo) on CNBC was looking for "15k-20k in the first few weeks". Another analyst who was much more optimistic(from UBS) said "100k by the end of next month might be too low." So... 115k within 24 hours, with the vast majority of that sight unseen - is pretty nuts. With demand like this, they will HAVE to find a way to hugely ramp up production, or else people will be waiting for years and that would be very bad.
First impressions. The Supercharger access comes standard. This I did not expect - it used to be a $3k option on lower end Model S's. Funny story, I first found out about Tesla 3 years ago when I saw a stock shooting straight up, all I knew about the company was that it was an electric car maker(I had no interest), and as a trader my first inclination was to short the stock because it was overbought. So I did. A week later, with the stock still going up and me losing money - I started doing some actual research to see what the hell was going on. What flipped the switch for me was when I read about the Supercharger network. They were going to build a global fast charging network(20-40 mins) powered by solar and offer it free to use for those who buy their car. So you buy their car, and theoretically would be able to travel almost anywhere, for free, forever. I am no environmentalist, nor car enthusiast, but that blew my mind. I covered my short right then, and eventually ended up buying the stock. So coming from that, the Model 3 will offer 2 revolutionary features IMO. Yes, it is $35k and looks like a Porsche, that is a nice bonus - but merely aesthetics. Here are the game changers: 1. The Model 3 with Supercharging coming standard means you will be able to drive for free, forever. Yes Tesla will need to build a ton more stations, they said they will double them in a year but more will be needed. They may eventually need to partner with other companies - so far no one else has even started while Tesla has full coverage across the US. This was available already with the Model S and X, but those were cars for the wealthy who did not care about a few thousand dollars in gas savings when they paid $100k for the car. With the Model 3, the fuel savings as a percentage of the purchase price will be a huge deal especially to its targeted demographic. 2. Elon hinted on twitter that the Model 3 will be a 2 part reveal, with part 2 being closer to production. IMO - Part 2 will be you will never have to drive your car again(if you don't want to), because it will be fully autonomous-capable. I won't go too deep into this, but it has been highly speculated that Gen II Mobileye tech that will be in all future Teslas starting in a few months will have the hardware capability to allow full autonomous driving. All you will have to do is solve the software side and update it over the air. Elon has already stated that autonomous driving is very close and they have a straightforward road map to achieving it. I believe this will be part 2 of the reveal. In summary, the Model 3, starting at $35k, will bring to the masses a car that will be capable of self-driving you anywhere - for free - forever. And it looks pretty cool too. That would change how we transport. I know that sounds kind of nuts. I mean it is kind of nuts. Apple changed how we communicate, and if you told someone that 10 years ago it would have been nuts as well. So we will see.
Ehhhh. I don't like it. Looks like a Chinese knockoff of a Panamera. You start putting in the options in there and you'll be buying that car for $50k before you know it.
Actually should mention that until pricing catalogue comes along, I probably should hold onto my judgement.
How much of a gamechanger is this? As the Model 3's supposed competitor, for $2500 more($37,500) you could buy this(no nationwide Supercharger network or Autopilot available): Spoiler I don't want to see the media ever put these two in the same sentence again. Spoiler The Bolt happens to be the most advanced EV outside of Tesla and only other EV coming close to 200 mile range. Not sure that says more about Tesla or the car industry.
If you haven't gotten your email and are itching to get the reservation number for a car that is coming out in 18 months go to tesla.com and the My Tesla link. Enter your email that you made your reservation and then ask for a password reset. Once you login in it'll show you your reservation number.
All Teslas currently equipped with Autopilot are semi-autonomous. If you are on a clearly marked road, it will follow the lanes for you and adjust speed according to traffic. It can also read some traffic signs like speed limit. It is meant to be used as a driving aid, especially on highway driving where things can get tedious - but the driver is still in charge and responsible. Fully autonomous, or self-drive means you get in, type in your destination, and can go take a nap. Most view this as still very far away - maybe 10 or 20 years? Elon has stated that they are much closer than that and should be able to achieve it in a 2-5 year timeframe.
This kind of pisses me off that the supercharger is going to be standard. Elon better upgrade those supercharger stations fast.
Based on my experience with the Model S I think the completely autonomous driving is going to be closer to 5 years away versus 2 years. It certainly needs a few hardware upgrades. The semi autonomous can only be used in specific situations now. Additionally, I'm hoping Tesla does something about the tire problems they have with the PS2 tires that they only use. They suck and they are too expensive and wear down very fast.
The technology might be there but regulations will most likely slow them down or prevent them from doing this even though it would probably be safer. The other day, while in the passenger seat of a car, I looked over and saw a guy driving 70+ on 290 as he was watching a movie and blowing tons of smoke. It didn't look like cigarettes either.
