Any way you look at it, this season has been a complete waste of time

Clutch, first thanks for your comments on Griffin and Mobley! Very interesting.
I agree with you, seems like Mobley is almost a lock to be moved and this team desperately needs a "veteran voice" on the floor. And it does appear the Rockets are more apt this offseason to move Griffin than they were last year.

Second, LOL about "Larry" coaching the team next year. I about fell out of my CHAIR with disgust on that one. What is funny is I could actually see this team doing that! But hopefully common sense would take over. You would hope!

Then you said you didn't say "Smith".....nice one! I only have to surmise that you are talking about Larry BROWN.

My next question is...what are the factors in involved that leads you to believe that he might be coming here?

 

Larry Brown huh?

Sounds about right for Francis transition to the 2.

Count me in.

I'm on the bandwagon baby.

As far as changes go, it's a good start. I usually preached Van Gundy, but Larry actually has Van Gundy's penchant for defensive minded teams, and if we could squeeze a finals appearence out of a team who's ONLY offensive weapon was AI, he could do wonders with Yao and Francis.

Let's hope we can get the right pieces to surround them.

At least we can have HOPE now.

 

Wow. If it's Brown, Larry and Rudy are on pretty good terms from working together at the Olympics a few years back. Uh, that would be quite a shakeup if it happened. Assuming your talking about Brown.

I wonder what his contract situation is with Philadelphia. He's always been one to make a move when the spirit moved him (or the frustration level became too hard to bear). And it would certainly get a lot of publicity. If he can handle Iverson & Company in such a successful fashion, he sure as hell could handle our guys. And he's not afraid to make a move, for himself or when he's running a team.

That could be awesome. As long as Rudy could handle it. (and if he can't?? ya gotta break some eggs to make an omelet... I can't believe I just typed that )

 

I blame Brake Check for this one.

p.s. hopefully Larry can bring some Snow with him.

 

Wow! That would be absolutely amazing if Larry Brown is the head coach of this team next season. Rudy and him are pretty close from everything you read, and maybe Rudy would be ok with moving into the front office to bring in Brown. Assuming this team is able to acquire a pass first PG and possibly a defensive minded forward, the sky's the limit with Brown as coach. Brown would really do a good job of helping Steve make the transition to the 2 spot and get this team to play solid defense CONSISTENTLY. If these types of changes are made, the countdown to the next parade can start.

 

To me it was a complete waste of time. It answered my question of do we need a new coach.

 

I for one think we very much underachieved. I think our record based on individual talent throughotu the roster should have been around what the Jazz have--a team with no current all-stars. Portland didn;t have an all-star at all either--and look where they are. One interesting element, we have a +1.3 point differential--the only team in the league who will have outscored their opponents on the year and not make the playoffs (in fact will barely be over 500). That shows to me we lost more than our share of games by not executing late in close games.

I would rather trade Steve than Mobley because I have questions about Steve transitioning to the 2 (especially defensively) and because Steve would land 5x more in return --but alas Steve couldn't be traded for full value until off season 04 so if one goes befor then it will be Mobley. For trading Mobley to improve us however--we would have to bring in a really unique player. Either a PG with good all around skills and who can guard big guards (if we dream like Payton or Kidd, if we a realistic more like maybe like Alvin Williams, Snow or giving Crawford a try) or an SG with a lot of PG-like ball handling skills and smarts (Jalen Rose, Ray Allen, Doug Christie, maybe give Ricky Davis a try). Someone like Brent Barry or Jalen Rose to pair up with the equally defensively inept Francis isn't going to help us that much overall even if they really help the offense.

I say go ahead and make a major coaching change but keep the team intact. Let that coach decide if he wants a modest roster adjustment (Mobley, Griff as bait) this summer or early next year, or even better if it doesn't look like Francis is improving as a team leader with the new coach next year hold off until the summer of 04 for a blockbuster trade with him as the principal.

 

Clutch, based on what you hear from various sources and your own observations...do you think this season has made Francis less untradeable? Maybe even to the point of him being traded this offseason for a different PG?

 

To tell you the truth, if this season has caused Les Alexander to bring in Larry Brown for next season and move Rudy to the front office, then no, it was not a waste of time . Think about it...

 

TheFreak,

You know, we've rarely had a conversation between ourselves except when in disagreement. I'd really like to know more about what you think is the mentality of a fan who advocates blowing up teams and firing coaches. I think it has a lot to do with unreasonable expectations, overvaluing trades/drafts/coaching and lack of respect for what it takes to win in the West *consistently*.

On that note:

You mentioned Denver. The better comparison is Golden State. Surely GS has no excuses for failing again to get over .500. I thought everyone was calling them a "surprise team." Should GS blow up their team, yet again, since they are #11 in the West. #5/14th pick, #3 pick a-nd Antawn Jamison, and still sub500 and only #11. If they are improving, are they a playoff lock next year?

imo, minor changes can work, but also can have no effect...sometimes just popping out another problem in your star, like what happens when you try to compress a balloon in different ways. Let's squeeze Francis into a PG role....oops, it pops out an offensive problem. Let's squeeze Francis into a SG and start a poor shooting, pure PG like Eric Snow. oops, it pops out a defensive problem in Francis and further allows collapsing on Yao.

The thing that I think is funny, TheFreak, is the idea that trading Mobley and a 20yr old nothing PF is "blowing up" the team--"drastic changes." Only a Rockets fan would say that.

"Blowing up" Boston is trading Bob McAdoo
"Blowing up" Memphis is trading Bibby and Shareef.
"Blowing up" Milwaukee is trading Allan and Robinson.
Blowing up Denver is trading McDyess.
Blowing up the new Boston would be nothing short of trading Pierce or Walker.

Saying Mobley and Griffin trades are major changes at that level is like saying trading Swift and Dickerson is "blowing up" Memphis again. Blowing up the Rockets is nothing short of trading Francis.

So, we don't want to do that...that leaves overvaluing role-player trades, draft potential and coaching changes.

Since when do minor trades make drastic changes in the win column that it would take to reach the finals in the West. It's really all on Francis and Yao to improve.

Like you've said often, TheFreak, you are only as good as your star. The idea that "fan objectivity" is the notion to make drastic trades that don't involve Francis is, imo, a strange view of "objectivity." Objectivity is realizing Francis can't win, even with Yao. Objectivity is realizing that Yao must get good enough to take over an NBA team like an MVP, or Francis must become a consistent team player, and that trading Mobley and a 20yr old nothing PF is not going to affect that change.

What's the answer...I don't know: but it starts with inner improvement in Francis and Yao. Git rid of Rudy/Kenny/Moochie/Mobley is more a matter of fan venting than fan objectivity. Can we win without them, and can their replacements fit better...Yes, but none of that does anything until Francis improves....he is not a Hall-of-Famer talent like Iverson. Snow and Francis is nothing compared to Snow and AI....what's up with thinking Snow is <b>The Answer!</b> LOL!!

You are no better than your star. That is a historical NBA fact.

 

I have reservations about larry brown, I mean that guy is trade happy. Look at all the new faces in philly. Sure the guy wins, but I somehow doubt he will win the big one, because his teams lack continuity.

 

And yes teams like Detriot and the Blazers were so much better than us. And sorry, I don't think any GM in the league would take Sheed (18PPG) or Wells over Francis, or claim either one is the same level of a "star" as Francis is . Ben Wallace is a wild card--but he really doesn't do much offenisvely--not the typical star of player to lead a team by himself. Certainly Rodman or Mutumbo--probably the closests comparison to Wallace in his heyday--were more complimentary peices than stars capable of carrying teams.

I think a good case is the Jazz. No all-stars, and Stockton now plays less than 2/3s or the game and scores barely over 10PPG.
Compare individual matchups Francis > Stockton, Mobley > Cheaney, Posey < Harpring (though at the beginning of the season no one would take Harpring over Posey), Griff < Malone, Yao > Oestertag, and I'll call the benches a draw ( Mot, Cato, Rice, Mooch, Tmo versus Kirelinko, Padgett, Collins, Stevenson, Jackson ) simply because though the Jazz guys completely suck after Kirelinko, they do in fact have Kirelinko. The Jazz take on journeymen throwaways (Harpring, Cheaney, Mark Jackson) and get production from them. Some times you have to credit coaches and the system for getting the most out of what they have.

Bottom line there are quite a few teams with no stars (at this point in their career) the stature of Francis in the playoffs--Detriot, Milwalkee, Portland, and the Jazz. You could make a case for two more as well--J Oneal and Mash are at best are the equal players in terms of individual talent as Francis. There is no reason the Rockets should not be competing for the 7th, 8th spot in the west based on "star" quality or their collection of individual roster talent from 1-12.

In sum, the Rockets should have done better whether you look at on the individual talent of their star or whether you look at the collection of talent and relative good health for the year in roster spots 1-12. Either the star (Francis) failed, the coach(es) failed, or a little of both. I happen to think a little of both.

 

No - he will be a BYC player starting July 1st, making him untradeable for a year for all practical purposes.

 

Okay...didn't I say get Larry Brown like in the beginning of this thread?!?

Anyways...Larry Brown.
Why would he leave the 76ers for the Rockets? Philly would hate him.
But he would be perfect with us. He makes the 76ers win even though they have not so great players.
He would be great...
He would know how to coach Francis at the 2.
I wish...
OF COURSE BROWN IS HAPPY. But he will never win the CHAMPIONSHIP.
If he could just leave Philly and join us, that would be awesome. Maybe they lose in the 1st round and fire him!! YES!!! And North Carolina doesn't want him anymore...
HE WOULD MAKE OUR DEFENSE FANTASTIC. Just remember Mutombo...and how good his team right now is.

I wish...

 

When it comes to winning- Stockton, Malone, and Payton know a lot more than Steve Francis. They may be old, but they can come through a lot more than Francis. Have you seen Malone's stats this year? He's still over 20 ppg.

As far as Portland, they have a lot more talent. Rasheed in terms of talent is close to Francis, and averages about 18 ppg to Steve's 21ppg. They have Derek Anderson, Bonzi Wells, Dale Davis, Pippen, Stoudamire, Sabonis, etc.

I'm not sure the Detroit comparison works. Remember Carlisle traded Stackhouse because he wanted a better team player. So Steve wouldn't fit in his system.

 

Well..I wish the Rockets could have a system like the Jazz or Pistons...as boring as it is. Just add a fastbreak game and dunks and it would be entertainng.

 

I agree especially with the last part. It is not so much they are more talented superstars at this point in their career--it is their leadership and team focus.

Yeah Malone is playing well for sure. But they got a journeyman to get 18PPG for them. And Utah's Cs & SGs are some of the worst collections in the league.

I agree Portland has a lot of talent--but one of the themes of the Freak and Heyp is that you only get as far as your stars--and well Portland doesn't have any 1 star the level of Francis. IMO you could plug a number of non-playoff PFs for Wallace with that team like Brand, Gasol, SAR, Jamison, maybe even Juwuan Howard--and Portland would still have finished the season ahead of the Rockets.

I personally don't full suscribe to the getting only far with the star theory completely either. Sac over the last 2 years when Webber has gone down has still been better than the Rockets--and w/o Webber they don't have a star near the caliber of the Rockets.

But Detriot was just about as good with Stackhouse as without him. It is hard to figure out why Detriot is so much better than the Rockets when you analyze individual talent--Detriot has a defensive/rebounding specialist as the closest thing to a superstar for Pete's sake, and their offensive leader (Hamilton) is more youthful than Francis or Mobley. Further Houston does pretty much equal or better than Detriot in team level stats with the exception of TO differential which is majorly in Detriot's favor. It isn't only differences in the conferences either Detriot has a better record in both conferences and swept the Rockets.

Some how Detriot is squezing more wins from their collection of talent and skill than could be expected--the Rockets do the reverse--call it differences in team poise and committment to the team winning at all costs. Whatever it is the Rockets on the court and off the court leaders are not getting it done in terms of bottom line W-Ls relative to their collection of individual talent at the top (Francis) or in positions 1-12.

 

Desert Scar, Detroit traded one failed star to land Ben Wallace, before they started winning, and traded another star, before they started contending. You are kinda making my point.

As for Portland, they point together one of the most expensive and deepest teams in history, and their stars couldn't get it done. You are overrating our depth and defense if you are comparing us to Portland..who is the 4-5th best team in the league. This is what TheFreak is trying to say. Many times we think our stars, role players and depth are better than they are.

I believe TheFreak is saying that many of our "solution/answers" are based on making excuses for the stars or our overexuberant expectations.

The expectations of Cato (earlier), Maurice, TMo, Shandon, Eddie and Nachbar is a sign of overrating our potential/depth. The expectations that making 1 for 1 role player trades like Mobley for Snow or Kenny for Posey is "The Answer" is overrating minor trades. The expectations that 2 for 1 trades with role players for a star will give us 3 biggies better than Dallas's Big 3 is more dreamcasting than reality, and look where that is getting Dallas--they will once again be exposed for no interior defense... and bye bye Dallas.

Our improvement is tied to Francis and Yao, not our role players or assistant coaches. Did Tex Winter make Michael Jordan? Sure it is a little of both and maybe Jordan wins rings later and not as many with a different coach, but there is little disputing that Jordan was the best ever. In a sport where one man can make such a huge difference, you are largely tied to how great your man can be versus the MVPs and HOFers in the league. That's what I mean by it's a historical NBA fact.

 

I also disagree that in order to win a championship your star has to be better than the other team's star.

It has been true in the past but will no longer be so in the future.

A couple of reasons:

1. There were fewer teams in the past. Every team had some depth. Today's game, there are very few Vinnie Johnsons and Michael Coopers. The talent is diluted. Good role players are more important than ever. No winning team will have Moochie Norris backing up 2 players. The fact we can't get someone better than Moochie Norris as our 3rd guard is indicative of the lack of quality depth in the NBA.

2. Salary Cap. In the past, good teams could always just swing a deal to get a role player to fit the system. In today's salary cap aka "salary mistake days", you can't just trade a Norm Nixon for Byron Scott or Rick Robey for Dennis Johnon unless youre a Cap genius.

Sacramento is the perfect example. Sacramento is arguably the best team in the NBA and has a very good chance to win the championship.

Now under the "Star" theory, Webber would have to outplay Shaq, Duncan and Nowitzki.

That is not a necessity for Sacramento to win. Mike Bibby, Vlade Divac, Bobby Jackson, Peja Stojakovic could all lead Sacramento to victory even if Shaq or Duncan is better than Webber.

Webber doesnt have to be better than Shaq, Kobe, Duncan, Garnett, McGrady, Iverson, Kidd or Nowitzki.

Webber could play the exact way he currently plays (a second tier superstar) and still win.

 

That is exactly why Sacramento will not win the championship. When it comes down to it, the team with the better stars wins.