Andre Johnson is entering rarefied air as he continues his career. He said earlier this offseason that he would like to play for five more years. He turns 32 next month so that means he will stop playing when he is 36. Let's look at some numbers and project his end of career stats. Johnson is currently 27th on the all-time receiving yards list. If he averages 1000 receiving yards each season he will end up at #2 all-time. It won't be easy but it is not impossible either. Jerry Rice had a 1000 yard season when he was 40. Jimmy Smith had 1000 yard seasons when he was 35 and 36. When we look at receptions, Johnson is currently 22nd on the all-time list. If he averages 80 receptions each of these next five years, he will be #3 (or #4 depending on Reggie Wayne) on the all-time list. The number of TDs Johnson has is pretty low compared to the other elite WRs. Johnson sits at 82nd place on the all-time receiving TD list with 56. I think 100 TDs would get some serious HOF consideration. He would need to average nine TDs per year. Bit of a stretch since his highest TD year has been nine. Andre Johnson has an excellent chance of making the Hall of Fame as long as he stays healthy and continues to put up reasonable numbers. Even if he doesn't reach the levels I projected, he will definitely be inside the top 10 in yards and receptions when his career is over. That should be good enough to enter the Hall of Fame.
The thing people underestimate is how much the media likes and respects Andre Johnson. They want to see guys like him get into the HOF along with the Terrel Owenses and Randy Mosses. Wasn't one of the reasons Cris Carter had to wait was because he wasn't very well liked? That goes a long way.
The raw numbers are impressive, obviously, and HoF worthy (IMO). The problem is that he'll be stuck in a glut of equally worthy WRs - and he doesn't have anything right now that separates him from the group - namely: no rings (or consistent playoff success), no "wow!" numbers they can't ignore (in fact, his one "wow" is the dearth of TDs), and he's played his whole career under the radar for a team that's been relatively ignored by the NFL establishment for many years. I think it's going to be tough.
We get the rehash. You think more highly of Schaub than most of us do in your praise and less of Johnson in the same manner...it doesn't matter whether you think highly of AJ because I think you do, but I don't see the same equilibrium of support you give to Schaub which is confusing to me unless you have some special connection there. To me the glaring wow factor is (3) 1500+ yard seasons...something that only a couple of receivers have done off the top of my head,..Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison...I tried to look and can't find others that had that consistency of greatness...in addition I don't think AJ is ignored by his peers at all...he was ranked in the top 100 list very high only 2 years ago...that respect by peers matters...and the great thing is he is far from done, all he has to do is average 950 yards receiving the next 5 seasons and he is in the top 3 all time receiving for a WR He is clearly HOF incomplete right now at this moment, but the direction and accomplishment and the wow factor is there. If he decided to stop playing now, I'm with you on the skepticism, but he still has quite a few seasons left in the tank...all he has to do is finish his playing and he is there...who is to say he doesn't have several more 1000-1200 yard seasons? His only suppose blemish is the lack of extraordinary TDs ...but that is more or less a testimony to the diversity of the team with the tight ends being such a receiving threat and Foster demonstrating extraordinary TD ability.
Part of the uphill battle HeyNow is referrencing is health. AJ is great when on the field, but he has had several seasons hampered by nagging injuries. That is only going to get worse with age. Prior to last season would anyone have been willing to predict AJ would play until he is 36-37 years old? I hope last season is the new trend, but it is hard to ignore the previous couple.
How in H-E-double hockey sticks did Matthew Rutledge Schaub get dragged into this?.... It's impressive, certainly. But Andre Johnson is, at a bare minimum, six years away from being HoF eligible; hopefully, he's 8-10 years away. Given the direction of the league, how will AJ's final numbers and individual accomplishments stand-up in 10 years? Calvin Johnson is a pretty safe bet to join the 3/1,500 group as early as next year, and the guy is knocking on the door of a 2,000-yard season. I think numbers are going to be turned upside down as we move through this pass-happy era. Not when it comes to HoF voting; his peers don't vote. Media does. And he's spent the vast majority of his career on bad teams, flying under almost everybody's radar. Do you think the Giants' beat writer, who maybe watches Andre Johnson once every 4 years, is going to be impressed with him putting up 3,000 yards in two seasons while the team went 17-15 and didn't make the postseason? In a vacuum, sure; he makes it. But he will (likely) be joining an already crowded field at a position that has notoriously been difficult to break through - again, go back to my earlier post where I detail the years it took the last seven WRs to get in - five were double-figures. I'm not arguing he's unworthy; I'm arguing that if he doesn't separate from a crowded field, he could very well get lost in the shuffle.
He is my favorite football player ever. Some one is gonna have to come along that is bad ass beyond belief to surpass AJ as my favorite player.
