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And this is part of why Jimy Williams terrifies me as a manager...

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by haven, Feb 27, 2002.

  1. haven

    haven Member

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    Uh, the entire season counts. Especially when the other park was less of a hitter's park.

    Baseball is a game in which different parts of a season can be very different. Someone can hit .300 before the break, and .220 after. They're neither as good as one, or as bad as the other. The season must be taken as a whole.

    1. Mlicki has sucked his entire career.

    2. Mlicki has no good pitches.

    3. Mlicki sucked last year.

    I ask you this:

    which is more likely?

    A. A pitcher who has always sucked and has no good pitches will miraculously turn his career around

    or

    B. A young pitcher oozing will talent will break out.
     
  2. Timing

    Timing Member

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    I smell a Biggio/Bagwell conspiracy. The rulers of the clubhouse strike again!

    CJ's site is definitely cool. I remember when they had that big brawl in Detroit with Chicago I think? CJ was talking all about it on the site, it was cool.
     
  3. The Cat

    The Cat Contributing Member

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    Uh, the entire season counts. Especially when the other park was less of a hitter's park.

    Not necessarily. Who's to say that he was totally motivated playing on a team that had no chance at contending? I care about how he played with the Astros, and I think that should be what we evaluate his performance on.

    which is more likely?

    A. A pitcher who has always sucked and has no good pitches will miraculously turn his career around
    or
    B. A young pitcher oozing will talent will break out.


    I still don't consider a 5.09 ERA, and 4.64 after the All-Star break, as "sucking". It's average, and he pitched very well in the playoffs. Give him a few starts. If he does well, then you have a good pitcher. If he sucks as you claim he will, then make Redding the starter anyway. How much can you lose in 3 or 4 starts?
     
    #23 The Cat, Feb 27, 2002
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2002
  4. PhiSlammaJamma

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    Personally, I'd like to see Dotel starting again. There's no reason to keep him in the pen if he's that good. If he starts then most of our starters can go 7 innings. Anybody can go one inning and get us to Wagner. I say pitch these starters until they drop. This isn't a wussy sport. I hope Williams makes these guys take pride in going 9. If the unconditioned -hippy pitchers of the 70's could go the distance, then the pitchers of the 90's should be going the distance too.
     
  5. haven

    haven Member

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    Cat... mlicki's ERA would probably be even worse, except for one important factor: he switched leagues. A pitcher usually fares better the first time against other teams. Once he loses the advantage of surprise, he's less effective. Big example of this was Donne Wall. Looked like RoY... till everyone had seen him a few times. Then he got hammered.

    So... if we take the season as not-a-whole... the second half becomes less credible, not more. Oops.

    Let him prove it in spring training. If he out-pitches Redding, let him start. If it's a tie or Redding wins, start Redding.

    How much can you lose in 3-4 games? Three or four games. And in a division I fully expect to come down to the wire, that could kill.

    Moreover, Mlicki's lack of stamina is a real problem, as pointed out priorly. He murders our bullpen. And if you leave him in for longer... he gets blasted.
     
  6. kidrock8

    kidrock8 Member

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    A setup man (who could also be a closer) is more important than a 5th starter who won't be able to pitch more htan 6 innings.

    Dotel finally found his niche as a dominant setup guy, and now you want to move him back to starter?

    The 8th inning is every bit as important as the 9th inning.

    I basically think the Astros use 2 closers to win the games in the late innings.

    WHo the hell would replace Dotel as the setup guy?
     
  7. haven

    haven Member

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    Perhaps, but not if he can go 7. Starters are significantly more valuable than relievers in term of season-long production.

    I think he was just suggesting an experiment.

    Yes, but what happens in innings 1-7 are ultimately more important than what happens in the last two. If you're down 5-1, 2 runs in the 9th don't matter much.

    If he can become a consistent 6-7 inning starter, I would. So would almost any GM.

    *note: I don't think he has the stamina... but if he did...
     
  8. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Contributing Member

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    Mike Williams
     
  9. Timing

    Timing Member

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    Williams resigned with the Pirates. They pulled a smooth move over on us I guess. McKnight and Williams for nothing.
     
  10. kidrock8

    kidrock8 Member

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    If it ain't broke don't fix it...

    Again, who replaces Dotel as the setup guy? Our record last year was incredible when leading after 7 innings.

    When Dotel was a starter, he was no better than Mlicki.

    Moreover, his arm will need to get redjusted to pitching 90-100 pitches every 5 games.
     
  11. Drewdog

    Drewdog Contributing Member

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    I have to seriously disagree with you here haven.

    Miliki's stats with the Astros last year:

    7-3 5.09 ERA 33 BB 49 SO

    To me he was one of our more consistent pitchers during the second half of the season when we needed help from all of the injuries we had. If he pitches well during spring training, I feel confident that he can provide us a solid 5 slot in the starting rotation.
     
  12. haven

    haven Member

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    Drewdog:

    If ya think... I've already enumorated my reasons to the contrary :).
     
  13. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Contributing Member

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    Damn!!! I better get updated before the fantasy draft:eek:
     
  14. Rocketman95

    Rocketman95 Hangout Boy

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    I'm sorry, I missed the change in rules where record means less than statistics...when did that happen? Oh wait, it hasn't. I'll take good won-loss record/bad era over bad won-loss record/good era any day of the week.
     
  15. Drewdog

    Drewdog Contributing Member

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    I just read the entire thread after I posted it..... my bad. I think you make some good points, but like The Cat said, give him a month or two to prove he is a legit starter, then send him to the pen if he starts sucking.

    Bottom line is: Give him a shot at the very least.
     
  16. haven

    haven Member

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    A team's record matters more than its stats, but when evaluating a pitcher, that's not true.

    Record is too contingent on many different variables, like run support.

    Last year for instance, Roger Clemens was not remotely the best pitcher in the AL. There were 5 other guys who allowed fewer hits, walks, etc... but Roger also led the AL in run support per game.

    When you've got Lance, Jeff, Craig, and co hitting in your line-up... you can make more mistake than say... Javier Vasquez can.

    Look at how many hits a pitcher gives up. Look how many walks he gives up. Homers, etc. These things are related more to his skill.

    And before you say, "well some people just know how to win," that's been proven to not be true. The only way this could be true, would be if certain pitchers consistently did better than league average in relation to ERA/record. But this doesn't happen.

    People made that argument with Clemens. But just a couple of years before, he had a decent ERA but his win loss record was mediocre. Mike Mussina won plenty in the past. Last year, he pitched extremely well and just had bad run support. Not his fault.
     
  17. BobFinn*

    BobFinn* Contributing Member

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    Did someone say Nolan Ryan?;)
     
  18. Puedlfor

    Puedlfor Contributing Member

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    good won-loss record/bad era rarely happens, ditto for the other way around.

    I would not put faith in Mlicki being as fortunate this year. Especially when his best pitch is a 90mph fastball . . . thats just icky.
     
  19. Nomar

    Nomar Member

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    Dave Malekie rules. I saw him pitch last year, and he ****ing blew the opposition. He has a fastball in the 100 and teens, and he paints the corners like Tom Sawyer on a fence. Sick, just sick. I almost dropped a Cleveland Steamer when I saw him, right then and there.
     
  20. haven

    haven Member

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    Yeah, his 115 mph fastball is nice, but his 10 foot breaking ball is even better. :rolleyes:
     

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