All The Evidence You Need: Why Rockets Aren't Championship Material

OKC is giving up 99.4 PPG this year. Does that mean they aren't championship material also?

 

At least San Antonio and Miami won't win the title this year because they give up 97+ PPG.

 

I wouldn't go that far....yet. There's no shame in losing to the Clippers, Nets, and Raptors. Especially when the last two were on the road with Toronto being on the 2nd night of a B2B and oh BTW, the Rockets were missing 3/5 of their starting lineup in those games.

But once we get past the OKC game tomorrow night, the schedule gets a lot easier. If they don't win at home against Denver and take 2 out of 3 on next week's road trip(especially considering T-Jones will be back and Dwight may be available), then it's time to panic.

 

The Rockets are tier 2 contenders. Have been all season. And I haven't expected anything more than that.

Tier 1
Spurs
Miami
OKC
Pacers

Tier 2
Clippers
Rockets
GSW

We have an outside chance at a run, but it's just that, an outside chance.

We're just NOT that good as a team, and folks telling themselves that we are top tier contenders and that this year is "championship or bust" are just setting themselves up for disappointment.

If we were that good, Morey wouldn't be working so hard to find a 3rd piece to the puzzle. TJones has been good, but I don't think he's good enough to put the Rockets over the top, especially against athletic teams like OKC and the Clippers. Parsons will be good, but All star good? No way of knowing. And Beverley/Lin are both limited in skill set at this point in their careers. If they're ever ready to step up to anything approaching all star level it's years away.

For the Rockets to get to the next tier, they either need a significant upgrade at the 1/3/4 (all star level), or they need to significantly upgrade the bench wing players. You're going to need a LOT more than Casspi/Hamilton/Garcia on the bench if you want to keep a lead or extend it against championship contenders.

And if you trade Asik and Lin, then you have 2 gaping roster spots to fill. An all star player gets you ahead on the starting roster, but you still have to fill out the bench contributions.

Once again, expect that to take time.

HCA and a solid 2nd round play off run would be an excellent season for this team as constructed. Anything beyond that is gravy.

 

no such thing as tier 2 contenders. u either contenders, or you''re not. after contenders are good playoff teams. thats where rockets/warriors/blazers get in.

i said it before the season started, i only expect the rockets to make the 2nd round. anything after that is gravy. its gonna take at least one year for this team to contend. a lot of it rests on dwight (assuming morey donesntt go after another star). i expect dwight to beast next season.

there's alos coaching. mchale shouldnt be fired, but demoted. a coach that runs a playbook. one on one basketball, esp when all but one player is great at it, is a terrible gameplan. i cant belive nothing has changed on that end. its obvious, in front of your face, yet the coaching staff is allowed to do the same **** over and over.

 

We're close to Tier 1 when everyone is healthy. The starting lineup may not be the best in the league, but there are no gaping holes at any position with the way Bev and T-Jones have played most of the season. Lin is a decent backup point guard when he's coming off the bench and facing the opponent's backup(or tired starter). Asik is a terrific backup center. And D-Mo and Hamilton are inconsistent, but not scrubs by any stretch. That's a pretty good 9-man rotation.

The problem is when this team loses a starter(except for Howard who by far has the best player backing him up), everything falls apart. Especially Parsons and Bev. It's no secret that the Rockets need more quality depth this offseason. But my biggest fear remains that Morey will hesitant to commit any money to filling out the bench because he wants to save a bunch of cap room for 2015.

 

Semantics.

The Rockets fall in the category of a team that could Possibly win a championship if the chips fell right. To me that's a fringe/tier 2/dark horse contender.

That's different than Portland, Phoenix, Toronto or the Bulls where you just can't see them winning a championship under any realistic circumstance.

Of course it doesn't really matter the definitions that we use, we both see them as most likely a 2nd round exit.

 

Honestly, we really can't afford to lose any of our core rotation.

The drop off from Dwight to Asik isn't huge, but Asik to the bench is massive.
Bev to Lin isn't huge, but Lin to Canaan is massive.
Harden is irreplaceable. Lin can carry the team to a point, but he's not anywhere near Harden.
Tjones to Casspi/Hamilton/Garcia is massive.

And Parsons has *nobody* on the team that duplicates his skill set.

We just don't have a depth or flexibility in skill sets and role that allows us to remain competitive if any of the 8 core rotation players goes out.

That's different than the Spurs. Pick any single player on the Spurs and take them out and you still couldn't bet against them as a potential championship team.

With the Rockets, it's the opposite.

 

No argument there. It's essential this offseason that Morey try to get a quality 2-3 swingman to back up Harden and Parsons. Hamilton clearly isn't that guy, and obviously Garcia is done in this league(except when we play the Thunder apparently). I don't think anything can be done about Lin until 2015 thanks to his horrific contract, but eventually a more reliable backup PG will be needed. Someone who takes care of the ball and has a consistent outside shot. Maybe Canaan can develop into that, but the good news is there are tons of players out there who fit that description and can be had for a fraction of the cost of Lin's deal.

I'm still not entirely sold on the necessity for a third star. I think with a little more depth and a better commitment to defense(which unfortunately may require a different coaching staff), the gap between us and the Tier 1 contenders can be closed.

 

The title of 2nd Tier Contender or Good Playoff team, same difference really...whatever rocks your boat.

Big Ouch! on the comment about the same level as Portland and Warriors? We are more than likely to hold on to HC advantage for the 1st round and go on to the 2nd round.

Portland and Warriors? With no HC advantage? Against Rockets and Clippers? They are projected to lose in the 1st round.

We are same level contenders as clippers, go on to a minimum 2nd round. Anything after that is a bonus.

You are right tho, won't be expecting to win this year but with a lot of luck (i.e. injuries) and some big momentum, we could have a slight window but not a lot. Too much inexperience and holes in the roster for teams like the Spurs to take advantage.

 

If you thought this group was set to make it to the finals and win then you set your goals for them way too high.

Too young and not enough chemistry yet.

 

Well, if we follow the Spurs model we can do it from depth. However, that would require an extremely high level coach.

If we follow the Miami/Celtics model, then all you need is a dominant talent in the starting unit and the 2nd unit just has to not get blown out.

I suspect a LOT of this will come down to the future of McHale. If we keep McHale, I really think the only way we get a chip is if we go the Miami/Celtics route.

If we get a top tier coach (I know, there's not that many around and have no idea about how we are going to get them), then you can do the Spurs model.

The deep/flexible team depends heavily on a coaches ability to maximize limited skill sets. For example, as inconsistent as Lin has been, do we really think he'd be the same player under Popovich vs McHale? Or the same defender under Thibs?

Coaching counts. And it counts the most with players who aren't all stars.

 

This team wasn't suppose to contend this year. They are missing one piece and the rest of the guys are still growing and learning how to play better team basketball.

This is a year of improvement and growth. Harden has grown, Beverley has grown, even freaking Howard has grown. And yes, Lin is MUCH better now than he was last year. People don't see it but his aggressive is finally there. The shots will start to fall as he gets used to playing this style. It's "controlled aggressiveness"

Guys like Jones and Dmo are still very much a WIP. Asik is what he is but that's just one player. Parsons still has a LOT to learn.

So it's crazy to think that what's happened in the last few days is anything out of the ordinary. This team is not mentally tough and not a contender. But HALF of this board knew that before these 3 losses. Seems like it's just dawning on the other half finally.

 

I'm fine with that if this offseason we can look back and say that this team actually improved and grew. But a 5-8 game improvement in the regular season record from last year won't cut it. To make real progress from 2012-13, the Rockets have to win a playoff series. Two consecutive first round exits is treading water, it's not growing.

Scratch that. It would be worse than treading water. It would arguably be a step backwards given the addition of Dwight Howard and the expectations coming into the season. Especially if a first round exit comes at the hands of the Blazers of whom no one expected anything back in October.

 

Spurs is very difficult to emulate. Not many Popovich around the league, a brilliant strategist who started off as a GM in the team which allows him basically a complete reign on the team.

Most importantly the Spurs for awhile now has kept had a good balance of veterans that tend to stay and serve as the core and leaders for the team which allows there young players to ease into there roles.

 

Average points allowed with no consideration of pace or ranking or the trend over time of increased scoring from rules changes, never mind any evidence of correlation between points allowed and winning. Excuse me if I'm not totally convinced by this one isolated data-point.

 

I'm leaning toward:

Portland takes the 4th seed. We are seeded at 5th.

Then, Portland beats us and we are out first round.

That's what the nagging voice in my head is saying. Oh...shut up!

 

...so you're saying there's a chance?

 

Well yah, that's why they're the Spurs.

The idea that we only have to fill out depth depends a lot on the coach's ability to maximize that depth. And when you're up against Head Coaches that are essentially masters at it, I don't think McHale would cut it.

Miami/Celtics 3.0 is probably our most viable model unless we can find a very high level coach.

 

With only one player that can create and score consistently, there is no way possible we can win in the playoffs. This roster full of misfits has to be overhauled.