yup. it kinda works in reversed ways. towards the end of the season, a lot of times an "easier" remainder of the schedule is actually "tougher" (see the phoenix game). it's tricky. and probably vice versa, too.
There is still a 15% according to these simulations. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/ 94% for Jazz 91% for Mavs we would have to leap frog one of those 2 to get in.
