Then go back and look it up from 2 yrs ago. They predicted the Rockets over the GSW........with CP3. I followed those numbers, I am sure many were disappointed if they believed those. I did not follow them last year because I felt the surge after Allstar break could have been a fluke.
After the 17/18 season was complete they definitely favored us to win it all.....with CP3. And again it didn’t say 100% chance to win the title. And sadly..... CP3 got hurt when we were up 3-2. I mean if a projection model isn’t 100% I guess you can dismiss it. Your opinion.
No problem, as I said, they dun factor in fatigue, injuries, old age, concentration problems......shooting droughts. Questionable officiating
I don't understand the Nuggets love by pundits...... they tried so hard to get the perfect seeding in the playoffs (with luck from the Rockets losing the alst game) and then barely made it to round 2 and lost.
Their final preseason projections have correctly picked the two finals opponents over the last 4 years and 3 of those 4 years projected the winner. As far as projecting Houston’s record over the 4 years they haven’t done so hot other than last year.
we haven't been in the top 2 in the last 2 playoffs? i mean we were a hamstring away from possibly being #1 two years ago, and we certainly gave the healthy warriors everything they wanted and could easily be argued to be the 2nd best team in the playoffs this year. unless the system is supposed to predict injuries.
538 had it 70/30 on election day and, if there were a way to instantly conduct hundreds of polls to enter in the model, would have probably had it at 50/50 after the comey news shifted things. they predicted something like a 2% popular election win for hillary (happened) and very close swing state races (happened) where, if one went to trump, they would probably all move together and might all flip to trump (happened, where many models assumed independent movement) and he could win a bunch of states by small margins and win the electoral college (happened). it was about as accurate as anything could have possibly been in guessing the opinions and turnout rate of over a hundred million people. whether that means we'll run away with the west? i have my doubts.
To add to this...If I'm forecasting 100 different elections and I pick the winner in each of them, and attribute each one of them a 70% chance to win, it's a BAD thing if I get ALL of them right! That means I'm bad at forecasting and my percentages are wrong. A "perfect" result would be if I picked 70 of them right, and 30 of them wrong. That's what 70% means. Not a lot of people understand this. Fivethirtyeight has done a retrospective self-grading of their own forecasting and as it turns out, their percentages are extremely accurate. When they say something has a 60% chance of happening, they get it right about 60% of the time. To a lot of people (those who don't understand forecasting) that means they're "wrong" 40% of the time. And that's just not how any of this works.
None of this **** matters though because for some stupid facking reason the NBA has one set of rules for regular season and a different (worse imo) set of rules for the playoffs. 538 needs a "playoff rules" prediction that includes horseshit refereeing.
Only saying they are some home bois who vastly underrate the competition, which is alright if they just admit to it. Rant over. Clippers 48 projected wins, same as last season? Is that even real? Did they get the memo of Kawhi and PG?
People shouldn't take the projections so personally or seriously. It's just based on their algorithms and the data they have atm... its not meant to be gospel. That said, I definitely think their projection is much too low on the Blazers, Clippers and too high on the Rockets, Warriors and OKC... but it wouldn't surprise me too much either way lol. The final standings this year in the West is going to be a crap shoot. IMO the Warriors, Lakers & OKC are just really hard to predict.
