Except all signs are pointing to Lebron caring about more money off the court than winning more rings. Lebron + Kawhi or PG on the Lakers aren't going to win anything in the West. His "legacy" will be ruined if he goes to LA.
The most interesting thing I took from this is that Houston is the only team where he will be matched up with equal players, at least from an offensive and defensive efficiency standpoint. And not just that we are the only team, but we actually have 2 players that are equivalent to him in value. 538 did an excellent write-up on player "buckets" recently. Basically, there are 3 types of "stars": alphas, betas and gammas. The general minimum threshold for winning a championship is to have an alpha, a beta and a gamma on your team, but this isn't a hard and fast rule. For example, in their rankings, Harden is an alpha, CP3 is the highest rated beta (and short of being an alpha by a tiny margin), and the lack of a gamma can be made up by having a really good and deep rotation...which the rockets had. Basically, the Rockets were a typical championship caliber team last year. The alphas are Westbrook, Harden, Lebron, Curry, Leonard and Durant...that's all pretty intuitive. The problem is Lebron plus Paul George is just an alpha and a gamma with zero bench...i.e. they would have no shot against the Warriors. It looks to me like Lebron really only has 3 legitimate options: go to the Lakers with Kawhi and George, join the Rockets with Harden and CP3, or go to Boston, who has a ton of gammas, plus an emerging star in Tatum. The 76ers are very likely NOT an option that can provide a strong likelihood of competing with the Warriors. I don't see Boston as very likely given their roster makeup. The Lakers seem VERY realistic if they can get Kawhi AND clearout their entire roster. Lebron might even be willing to go to LA with Kawhi only.
No offense, but this is emotion driven drivel... If you're saying that if a 34 yr old Bron - in his 16th NBA season - doesnt win big, it will ruin his legacy... thats just nonsense... As I've told people on here repeatedly - Bron's legacy is secured. He will go down as one of the greatest to ever play... and people will argue era, teammates, opposition, etc... but no amount of additional rings acquired through some superteam is going to to give him the additional credibility to pass MJ - period. Assuming he came to Houston and won 3 b2b2b championships - he's still below MJ... LBJ 18 seasons with 6 NBA Championships MJ 15 seasons (incl 2 wasted in Washington) with 6 NBA Championships... You may have to call in the analytics guys on this... but by my math 6 championships in 15 seasons trumps 6 championships in 18 seasons... and thats without going into MJ's 10 scoring titles.... but if Bron can get MVP in 2 out of those 3 years - he can tie MJ there - but again 18 vs 15... People on here want to use his 'legacy' to rationalize him coming to the Rox... nonsense, his legacy is secure, it is what it is, and it aint gonna change regardless... The smart move for Bron is LA... start converting to more of a mentor role to prolong his career for more ubersupermax years... and continue to lay the foundation for life after basketball... that is the smart move. People wanna rationalize him to Houston - but I believe Bron is smarter than that... don't get me wrong... I would LOVE to add Bron and squash the worriers... but I dont see it happening - no matter how much people want to rationalize...
I wish very much I could find updated 2017-18 Consensus Plus Minus numbers. I’ve looked but no luck. The Alpha/Beta/Gamma article you reference was great.
