[538] Nate Silver: LeBron should go to Rockets, win 69 games, Dominate NBA

Actually, the model has Terrance Jones and Chris Bosh as equals.

 

Explain, please.

 

To clarify, In Silver's model

Tjones has a net point per 100 possessions of 1.3
Chris bosh is sitting at 0.8

So imagine if Chris Bosh used this model to see his impact on the rockets, he would see that we would be a 55 win team (assuming we play both Tjones and Bosh close to 30 mins a game.)

If you play Tjones less and give an inferior player more minutes, the wins go down even more (since Tjones, according to this model is a superior player to bosh.)

 

To be totally fair, Silver's model probably gave a penalty to Bosh for being old, and a bonus to Jones for his youth and potential.

It also assumes Bosh is the Bosh of the last 3 years (since that is the data he used.)

Toronto Bosh was probably a statistically superior player to Miami Bosh, even though Toronto Bosh wouldn't really have a role on our team?

 

I don't think either one of us would be able to fully understand how Silver arrives at his projections. Morey would get it. My guess is that they could spend hours talking with each other about this stuff. I wonder if they've ever met?

 

Don't think he would have left to Miami if that was that case.

 

Must not be watching the Orlando summer league
Nick is killing it out there.

Parsons replacement?

In a shorter, less handsome kind of way..

 

He tells you how he came with his projections, and the numbers are there for you to see.

He simply uses SPM or statistical plus/minus and takes it a step further with the Simple Projection System which handles player aging and the like - linked here http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/projections.html

Terrance Jones numbers are higher than Chris Bosh. It's not really hard to understand.

 

I just sat there staring at the words "Houston Rockets - 69-13" for a whole minute.

A single tear may have fallen for what won't be.

 

Does anyone need any more proof that basketballholic is jopatmac?

 

Is basketballholic an Arizona alum? What is his opinion on Nick Johnson?

I never could get the spelling of jpotomac right.

 

No, not from Arizona. I think Nick looks like a great fit. I'd like to see his elbow fixed on his jumper but everything else looks good. Looks like he could be a BJ Armstrong/John Paxson type running alongside Harden at the point.

 

Man, totally feel you on that one. I can't imagine my team losing only 13 games, or even the craziness around Houston if that happened.

 

Because people that are married have to make decisions together? Be real, Melo forced his way to NY and they gave up valuable players when he could have just signed there outright that offseason. He doesn't care about winning and I don't really give a **** what you think.

 

Agree.

 

I'm impressed that you were able to type that while holding your wife's purse.

Yeah, that just happened.