5 Hot Takes: Jalen is Gilbert, Eason is Kawhi, FVV is the glue, Tate & Landale appreciation

I appreciate people who make takes based on data. But I can't say I agree with all of it, as the palming thing sounds like trolling and I'd add Sengun will likely be an all-star as well.

But I also have Eason as our most impactful player based on impact stats the past few years and if his offensive bag develops can be a star, he and Amen if they fully develop their weaknesses can win you playoff series because they affect the whole game.

 

Hot take: win now Morley would trade the whole roster for LeBron and hope it worked out with the minimum vets. So maybe we shouldn’t take his advice.

 

I like takes with statistical evidence. Kudos.

 

Your analysis of the stats is seriously lacking OP.

You're missing two massive factors in your analysis. That's why you think the team is playing some sneaky games to hide its best players during a playoff chase but what's really happening is the coaches understand these things:

- Offensive stars are those who can create for themselves AND others without being heavily assisted. This is important because in competitive games, you can't live without having those guys. That's why there are many such players that coaches are willing to hide defensively. Sengun and Green are the only ones right now who - if the system and 4 guys around them have the ideal skillet - can punish double teams. Amen has shown he can do it if teams can't sag off him but without shooting in difficult games he will not be able to carry us. I'm sure he'll develop a 3PT shot. Cam could develop a good enough handle in 2 years to join them.

- You're ignoring defensive VOLUME. An ace wing defender cannot have the impact of a star player in a playoff series unless they can do semi-diverse offensive damage. Their defensive EFFICIENCY may be high but they will practically never be able to be involved in as many actions as a rim protector. As much as I love Tari, he is years of work away from being anything but an elite 3&D guy. Most likely outcome for him is a Mikal Bridges or OG Anunoby. Someone we really need in order to win a title, but not the central foundation on any side of the court. He will quickly steal Brooks' job.

Also, Gilbert Arenas if he were as healthy/resilient as Jalen and gave half the effort Jalen gave on defense this season and cared about his image would have been a bonafide star in the NBA today. Not to mention Jalen's taller, faster and more athletic. There seems to be a ton of bias in saying Tari Eason will be KAWHI FREAKING LEONARD while Jalen Greens ceiling is maybe a failed star. Try deciding on whether you're a realist or an optimist and apply the same methodology to everyone if you're all about the data science.

Our core is actually so perfect. They all have excellent complimentary skillets. The only problem is one of Sengun or Green need to improve their shooting so that they can punish teams for crowding the paint. There were never any other conflicts in the core that prevented us from winning.

 

I want someone to do a comparison of Jalen's March to Linsanity

 

I love a good statistical analysis, but solely using net ratings and on-off numbers from really small sample sizes is kinda cherry picking, OP. Any statistical analysis that leads to you claiming Tate is one of their four best players should be an automatic red flag.

There are a number of other advanced metrics (BPM, WS/48, etc.) that point to Sengun and Amen being among their best players. Looking solely at a couple of metrics in small samples and ignoring the eye test, health, age, etc. is going to lead to some odd results like this.

 

Basing an assessment solely on data is never right especially when it’s based only on metrics not statistics.

 

Tari Eason is far from Kawhi. Not sure where you are getting this from or what you see. He isn’t slightly less skilled than Kawhi. He is much lees skilled. He isn’t a one on one player. He doesn’t have the handles to take defenders off the dribble consistently or transition to a step back or pull up. He doesn’t play off the screen and roll or have playmaking abilities Kawhi does. The gap is wide and Eason is nowhere near this level of play but he doesn’t have to be. He is a good 3D guy. That’s his game. Nothing wrong with that.

 

Assessing player value or impact solely thru on off court ratings is flawed in itself. When The premise is flawed the results are flawed. Don’t make no sense bruh. You can’t possibly think Landale and Tate are among our best players. Bit over simplification without other variables and data including qualitative taken into consideration. And take 4 is purely conjecture not based on anything

 

take num 4 isn’t even based on anything. But point is solely using metrics is never right and a flawed premise. Metrics and statistics are not the same. Keep this in mind. Stats include collection of sample data and analyzing it. Data is what actually happened or what was observed. Rebounds. Points etc. Metric is simply a measurement with a goal or objective like PER which measure player efficiency or Net Offensive rating etc. and those metrics are arbitrary and don’t tell the complete story often leaving out certain variables or factors. Simply citing metrics without data, qualitative information and observations, and analytics or analysis is just wrong and flawed.

 

Eye-test on Eason also tells me that he can be truly special, but body of work is too small to know for sure.
Keep in mind also that Eason is the oldest of the Core-6, there's still a lot of fluidity. Jabari and Whitmore are the two youngest, they can still pop quite significantly....

 

Linsanity only lasted for 2 weeks FYI

 

Not stats. It’s based on metrics and only metrics. Metrics are arbitrary measurements with a goal of explaining something like off or def rating or offensive plus minus etc.

 

Morey also has not lit the world on fire post rockets either

 

Most players need the ball in their hands to pop but Eason is one of the few that does not need the ball every time to do that.

It all depends on his health and how the organization does not fudge it up again.

 

Spoiler

Jerry Lin:
14 games, 36.9 minutes, 21.7 ppg, 8.7 ast, 4.1 reb, 47.2//33.3//74.7//55.8 TS% (Feb.4 to Mar.4)
12 games, 37.6 minutes, 22.6 ppg, 8.7 ast, 4.1 reb, 47.8//34.2//75//56.5 TS% (Feb.4 to Feb.23; all-star break)
26 games, 34.1 minutes, 18.5 ppg, 7.7 ast, 3.7 reb, 44.9//32.4//79.3//55.2 TS% (Feb.4 to Mar.24; meniscus tear, end of his season)

Jerry Green:
15 games, 29.8 minutes, 18.4 ppg, 3.9 ast, 5.9 reb, 41.7//27.7//82.8//52 TS% (The 15 games before the 15 games; Jan.26 to Feb.27)
15 games, 37.1 minutes, 29.2 ppg, 3.7 ast, 6.2 reb, 48.8//42.2//78.2//61.8 TS% (Feb.29 to Mar.29)
11 games, 37.2 minutes, 30.2 ppg, 4.1 ast, 6.7 reb, 50.4//45//74//63.6 TS% (Mar.8 to Mar.29; 11 game win streak)
9 games, 31.9 minutes, 16.6 ppg, 4.4 ast, 5.4 reb, 37.9//27//88.5//49.2 TS% (after the streak/close the season, back to the Jalen Green you all know and love)