This whole thread seems to be taking Clingan vs Sheppard to battle: Here's some rarity stats that I think matter: Number of NBA players last year that shot 40% or better from three: 41 Number of NBA players that averaged 1.2+ blocks AND 10+ rebounds: 4 Number of NBA players that shot 52% from three: 0 If you move the three point line back to NBA length... that's not a very good argument. Reed Sheppard takes most of his threes from NBA distance. I only counted 2 makes and 2 misses going from the shorter college distance. I think his only real knock is ball-handling but if you believe in Sengun, Fred and Jalen Green's ability to make plays for the team (throw in Amen too most likely), this guy with set feet is magic. He does tend to drive into packed areas on the court and put up terrible shots or make turnovers on occasion, but I don't think he'll be utilized driving to the rim by Ime. His defense looks Fred VV-ish at times so I don't know that he'll be too bad on that side of the ball either. Great anticipation on cross court passes and he dunks what he intercepts cause the dude can jump out of the gym if he needs to. Clingan looks like Tim Duncan material to me. Patient, finishes around the rim with touch or power, finds the ball when it's in his area, doesn't chase, controlled movement, nice hands, rebounds in traffic... I really like this guy. I don't want San Antonio and Pop's gross old hands getting on this player. I don't need them having twin towers. Length beats shooting these days. Every solid team in the playoffs has somebody they're running out there that protects the rim. We have 1) questionable health Steven Adams there, 2) questionable rim protecting ability Sengun there, 3) questionable offensive consistency Jock Landale there, but Clingan looks to be almost a sure thing. Not great anywhere specific, but smart player that guards the rim, makes buckets at the rim, looks ready for the NBA tomorrow. Add this to Clingan: he can set picks effective enough to change the outcome of a game. That tidbit goes no where when the shot ain't fallin'. Setting quality picks is an art and he has it. Rolling, he's got it. FVV is good at PnR. Just saying. I hope Reed or Clingan get drafted before us but not both. I don't ever want to look back and think 'what might've been'. Protect Clingan from San Antonio and take Reed if Clingan's gone! That's the only sense I can make of this draft so far. I need to do a few more deeper dives but I'm not down with Saar if Reed and Clingan are a possibility. I want closer to NBA ready guys for next season. Matas might be ready, he's got 5 tools in the old belt and he's stronger than he looks. Shooting is questionable at the next level but his mechanics look pretty right to me. Topic is a no for me, crafty Ginobli type but his speed is something I question. Is he playing at his own speed, is he going to be a creative passer, is the shot going to be consistent enough to win? Risacher is FAST AF. Love what he's doing. Looks fun as hell but I want a team oriented guy. He seems to be out there alone. There's no need to go above top 3 when you're drafting third so here goes my TL;DR final draft order if I'm Houston (with win-now on the brain): 1A) Clingan 1B) Reed Sheppard 3) Matas Buzelis p.s. I love Dalton Knecht's game too.
Neither of those two are known for defense, being better than them doesn't mean anything imo. Yes he will learn from FVV. But we aren't champion contenders even with FVV, that's not a good argument. My idea is we have Amen as the PG, and so we need wing shooters to complement him not another FVV. Because we know FVV on this team isn't good enough. If say JG is playing bad or isn't resigned/traded, then we can have a JG replacement with the 3rd pick. RS to me has a limited ceiling compared to other prospects available and that's where we differ you think he's gonna be the next Steph/Kyrie/Cp3 etc. Cool. If we take RS I hope you are right.
No, they won't see minutes at the 1 ..... but both could see minutes at the 2 & 3 and Risacher can probably log some minutes as a 4. Problem is Brooks and Tari but if you move one or the other, I think that free's up opportunity for minutes at the 3. I voted Risacher in the poll, but I don't think he's there at 3 so I think Sheppard is the next best option. What really sucks is they could go one and two, I really believe they are the two best players in this draft ..... leaving us with option c.
Dalton over Matas and Reed my guy... Protect Clingan from SA agreed totally. Reed is going to be a nice player, but not at #3 overall... Would have Clingan, Sengun, Brooks, Green, and FVV as my starting 5 next year with Adams, Smith, and Tari off the bench...
So much worrying, overthinking, arguing and debating over the pick for what? Udoka gonna take the best player/fit for his system and I trust that he’ll make the right call. I knew he was a real one the moment he said “It’s not going to work here” when talking about a certain bearded bum loser last summer. Ime bless.
Very well and thoughtout analysis. Basically what I have been saying but more thorough. Shooters are more available than skilled, rim protecting bigs. If Clingan is available at 3.....you take him
6’2 and under pgs in their respective classes D. rose #1 pick Kyrie Irving #1 pick Damian Lillard #6 pick goes #2 in redraft Donovan Mitchell #13 pick prob goes #2 or #3 in redraft Jalen Brunson #33 pick I’d put him at #2 in redraft. Trae young right behind him at #3 Ja Morant #2 pick. Darius Garland #5 pick he goes #3 in redraft Tyrese Maxey #21 pick. He goes #4 in redraft only cause the guys in front of him are studs. I’m not letting 1/2 inch or an inch persuade me one way or another. If you can ball you can ball. When it comes to Shep I’m more worried about how well his game will translate and a negligible height difference isn’t a big factor in that equation for me.
With Clingan, we'd be drafting a 4th center behind Sengun, Adams, and LA Dale and Sengun is the team's best player. That's why that move doesn't make sense to me unless we're projecting him to be a superstar. He adds potentially a bit of defense while taking away a lot of offense if we started him.
So now they have Boban, Adams, Landale, Sengün, Clingan (Edey) Good enough to protect 4 rims. Rather have a stronger and athletic Jabari.
I wanted to add something to this. Sheppard didnt shoot a super high volume (it wasnt low volume either) due to sharing the floor with other high end players, but if you watch the types of threes he took it makes you feel good about his shooting translating. He wasnt just a spot up guy. He shot pull ups in transition, he shot coming off screens off ball. He shot as a ball handler in pick and rolls, he shot in iso situations.
Ok, so I think at 3, with these available players, the rockets should be looking at 1. Reed - pure elite shooter, Stockton clone, should have an impact immediately on the floor, especially considering how poorly the Rockets shot the 3 this season. Quick first step, solid passer, smart with pace. Good defender and his anticipation will lead him eventually to be top 5 in steals 2. Topic - Absolute menace on the pick n roll, very good finisher under the basket, crafty and smart passer, AND 6'6!!.. This would be the best fit with Sengun. But what do you do with other playmakers on the team. I guess Green and Thompson will get less time playing PG. FVV has probably 2 more years of playing very good basketball, so getting Topic would be future proof but will need to improve shooting 3. Risacher - Solid shooter, good quick release for his height, wing that can move and cut, good defender that can stay infront of his man. Modern tall/quick forward that should have a solid long career.
Sounds like Sheppard is a slightly shorter but more athletic Austin Reaves basically. I guess that's ok but not at the #3 pick even in a weak draft. I was up for drafting him at #9. Would be ok trading our pick for Sheppard and a future pick. Focus more on international players. They tend to be severely under scouted by the American scouts who claim the draft is weak/strong every year. Take advantage of their blind spot. Forget g league payers, those guys are all behind in development for their age. Would take Topic over Sheppard easily. In a head to head, Sheppard is not going to outwork Topic or generate more unassisted winning plays. Topic sees the court like a savvy veteran floor general since he was a teenager. His passing is absurdly great, often making his god awful teammates look much better than they really are. Devastatingly good PnR player. You don't understand how good you have to be at 18 for some old school European coach to hand you floor general duties. Those coaches will deny you that role even if you deserve it, just because you're a kid. Shows innate extreme leadership qualities. Attacks fearlessly. Works hard. Extreme almost excessive hatred for losing. Really it's only his 3PT% that's worrisome. However his form is very good and his FT% is absolutely elite (87%). To me it looks like he's penetrating the defense so easily (elite at getting to the FT line too) that the 3PT shot has not mattered. It would be shocking if he didn't develop into a good shooter. I can see Topic and Sengun in PnR running one of the most efficient plays in the entire NBA (excellent to be mentored by FVV on this). I can see Topic running an unguardable transition with Cam/Amen/Green/Tari. I can see him being elite at feeding the post. I predict he ends up the best PG in this draft by a mile. Would consider him at #3.
How many 6'2s were there in Irving's class? In Drose's class? If his game doesn't translate then obv his height played a factor in it. To justify picking Reed at number 3 you are betting he will be at the top 0.001% of guys his size. That ain't a good bet.
I agree. I also like Sheppard but think it's a waste to get him at 3. It's crazy to me after complaining that the Rox were too small or always got bullied this year 90% of the board now wants 6'1.75 at 3.
I don't disagree that Topic has the greater ceiling, certainly as a point guard. But there is something to be said for Sheppard already being elite at one of the Rockets greatest weaknesses and as someone who would fit like a glove around some of the other pieces. His defense is also obviously an advantage. I don't really see a wrong answer between the two. It's just different philosophies. High floor vs. high ceiling. Fit vs. potential. I'd be happy with either.
