I don't know much about most of these prospects but I know that I don't want us to be a bottom 5 shooting team again.
I don't usually agree with some of your takes, but after taking some time to watch some videos of Topic playing, I came away not too concerned about his shot. So I'm with you on that, I don't think Topic and Sangun can be compared even their free throw forms you can tell Topic is much more of a shooter. I'm still leaning Sheppard with the pick if it was up to me, because if his shooting translates, man that could be an amazing fit for us.
It would be nice if Reed was more like 6'2.0" or hell even 6'3" without shoes, but 6'1.75" without shoes is probably about right based on his listed height. He 100% will need to learn to play like a FVV to be most effective, but I already assumed that would need to be the case (and I assume it is somewhat likely actually). If anything, I wished he was a bit heavier/bulkier. That probably bothers me more than the height (I think FVV was probably shorter but already ~200lbs when he entered NBA). Topic would be interesting, assuming his height is semi legit (don't think he's at the combine?). I have concerns about his shooting based on percentages, but it is low volume (which itself is also not great, but who knows). Given how things look, he *probably* will be OK at shooting. Only other concern I have with him is if he'd be good off-ball. Part of my equation is that this draft pick will need to do well without a ton of usage. Topic seems like a guy you'd want to have usage, though I don't know if he would necessarily do better than Sengun, Jalen, Amen, Cam, etc. Maybe he would. I like Zaccharie Risacher and Cody Williams fine enough, but I'm not sure they're a tier ahead of some of these other guys, and they also would contend for minutes with guys like Tari, Cam, Jabari, maybe Amen, etc. And I don't think any of them have the talent of those other guys anyway. Wouldn't hate them, but I'd rather go with a guard I think (Topic or Reed most likely I guess). These are all likely to be solid starter/rotation guys I'm guessing (vs a Wemby/Chet/etc), so I'm OK going a bit more for fit. Even if that just means a great 6th man or something like that.
I hate to see the Rockets getting a BPA who doesn't fill a need and may not, or is not, any better than a player they currently have. The biggest hole is 3 pt shooting at the guard spot. If Green were shooting close to 40% from 3 he would already be signed to an extension. I think a full comparison between Green and Sheppard at 18 with competition taken into account is in order. Obviously, Jalen wins the athleticism metric so check the box for him on that but everything else I would love to see a deep dive analysis on.
i don't dislike the idea of sheppard but picking him at 3 is just bad value. if we don't trade the pick (which we should) i would think topic or buzelis would be my preference.
Tari, Brooks, Cam and Amen can all play SF. We have Addams and Alpi at center. PG is a big need. FVV is the only true point guard on the team. We struggled when he was out and he played too many minutes.
That's where I'm somewhat using "ish". Those comps aren't perfect but some of the ways those guys have succeeded Reed has somewhat realistic potential to replicate. Sheppard makes some really nice passes and seems to have a really nice feel for the game and competing. I like Sheppard but I'm not locked on him and I don't have strong opinions yet on a lot of the other guys. Main thing is I'd prefer not drafting another prospect who is a poor shooter without making other offsetting moves.
Nikola Topic because it would be very funny to have a Turk and a Serb have to work together every night. (I know Boban is here but he's a victory cigar)
If he's the right player, he's good value over players that aren't the right player. If we had taken Sengun at #2, EVERYONE would have said that was bad value at the time. Sheppard probably won't, but he has potential to be a Steph Curry tier shooter.... that's about as rare as it gets. If say it puts him in the conversation for #3 in a year without any consensus top picks.
Is it, though? In a draft without a clear consensus right now in terms of top talent or tiers of talent, I've seen these guys all over the place. I've seen Sheppard picked in mocks in that 2-4 range as well as in the 8-10 range. But I could say the same thing about Topic, Castle, Risacher, Dillingham, etc. Sarr is probably the only guy I always see in the top 3, but even he's not a consensus No. 1 overall pick at this point. In a draft this muddled, I think you take the guy who best fits whatever characteristics you and your team value. If the Rockets are drafting solely for need and fit, Sheppard checks a lot of the boxes I'd be looking at if I were Ime and Stone. I don't know that you can definitively say right now that the Rockets would be reaching or getting great value if they picked any of the guys above.
I think his processing and actual passing ability is pretty good. He has good skip passes plus some crazy outlet passes. If anything, I think his ballhandling needs to improve to be a PG. He picks up the ball a lot from what I understand (also not super creative), and that probably limits some of his ability to playmake. He also isn't great at self-creation, so I don't think he'll be able to attack a mismatch and get assists that way. If he can play in a system that generates advantages for him (via defensive miscommunication from DHOs or whatever), I think he'd probably do fine in that area. I do think FVV type of playmaking isn't completely unreasonable over time (if you want to develop him that way).
I mean I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you--I'd actually say "FVV with (potentially) better shooting" is my comp for Reed's ceiling. But now that we have his real measurements I definitely have some real, serious concerns about his floor moreso than I did before today. I can envision a world where he turns out to be a real disappointment and is more of an Aaron Holiday or Payton Pritchard type of dude. I was really hoping he was at least legit combo guard size, like 6'2.5" with a plus wingspan. Doesn't appear to be the case.
He's talking about short players can't get their shots off in the NBA. But there are plenty of players shorter than 6'3 who are good to great shooters in the NBA (CP3, Curry, Brunson, Trae, just on top of my head). FVV is a somewhat extreme example because of his exceptionally small size. But he's not the only short player who can get their shots off any time they want. If you have good handles and have a quick release, you can get your shot off no matter how tall you are. Both Sheppard and Dillingham have those skills. The only question to me is whether their other aspects of the game can translate into the NBA.
i would prefer to trade the pick for a known quantity at a position of need. sheppard seems far more likely to be a role player than the secong coming of steph curry... we'll see
It's 6'3" in shoes, sure, but the average wingspan and standing reach and so-so athleticism though...
He’s literally the exact same size as Steph. 1/4 inch shorter in height and wingspan. We will see what he tests athletically but he is more athletic than Steph. I don’t even care if he’s the pick, but facts are facts.
