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#21-30 has produced better players than #11-20 in the past decade

Discussion in 'NBA Draft' started by Sen89, May 23, 2012.

  1. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    I posted this in another thread, found it to be an interesting trend. Left out the last 3 drafts, because the jury is still somewhat out.

    2001
    11-20: Z.Randolph, R.Jefferson, B.Haywood, T.Murphy, J.Collins, V.Radmanovic, K.Brown, S.Hunter, M.Bradley, K.Haston
    21-30 T.Parker, G.Wallace, G.Arenas, J.Tinsley, S.Dalembert, T.Hassell, R.Lopez, B.Sasser, J.Forte, B.Armstrong
    Conclusion: Both were very good, but 21-30 was better here.

    2002
    11-20: J.Jeffries, F.Jones, J.Dixon, K.Rush, M.Ely, M.Haslip, J.Welsch, B.Nachbar, C.Borchardt, R.Humphrey
    21-30: T.Prince, J.Salmons, R.Mason Jr., N.Krstic, Q.Woods, F.Williams, C.Jacobsen, C.Jeffries, D.Dickau, S.Logan
    Conclusion: Both were very bad, but 21-30 was better here.

    2003
    11-20: D.West, M.Pietrus, N.Collison, L.Ridnour, S.Pavlovic, D.Jones, M.Banks, R.Gaines, T.Bell, Z.Cabarkapa
    21-30: B.Diaw, L.Barbosa, J.Howard, K.Perkins, T.Outlaw, B.Cook, C.Delfino, Z.Planicic, N.Ebi, M.Lampe
    Conclusion: Very Close, but 21-30 gets the edge with more solid players.

    2004
    11-20: J.Smith, A.Jefferson, J.Nelson, JR.Smith, K.Humphries, A.Biedrins,D.Wright, R.Swift, K.Snyder, S.Telfair
    21-30: K.Martin, T.Allen, A.Varajao, D.West, S.Vujacic, B.Udrih, S.Monia, V.Khryapa, P.Podkolzine, D.Harrison
    Conclusion: 11-20 takes it.

    2005
    11-20: D.Granger, H.Warrick, A.Wright, J.Graham, R.McCants, F.Vasquez, Y.Korolev, S.May, G.Green, J.Hodge
    21-30: D.Lee, N.Robinson, J.Jack, J.Maxiell, L.Kleiza, F.Garcia, W.Simien, I.Mahinmi, J.Petro, L.Head
    Conclusion: 21-30 takes it closely. Too many busts in the 11-20 category

    2006
    11-20: J.Redick, R.Brewer, T.Sefolosha, S.Williams, R.Balkman, R.Carney, O.Pecherov, Q.Douby, C.Simmons H.Armstrong
    21-30: R.Rondo, K.Lowry, S.Brown. J.Farmar, J.Boone, M.Ager, S.Rodriguez, M.Collins, M.Williams, J.Freeland
    Conclusion: The studs in the 21-30 category override its busts, giving it the slight edge

    2007
    11-20: T.Young, N.Young, R.Stuckey, M.Bellineli, J.Smith, S.Williams, A.Thornton, J.Crittenton, J.Wright, A.Law
    21-30: A.Afflalo, W.Chandler, A.Brooks, R.Fernandez, J.Dudley, T.Splitter, D.Cook, M.Almond, A.Tucker, P.Koponen
    Conclusion: 21-30 takes it easily, too many quality players.

    2008
    11-20: R.Hibbert, J.McGee, J.Bayless, J.Hickson, A.Randolph, M.Speights, R.Lopez, B.Rush, J.Thompson, A.Ajinca
    21-30: R.Anderson, S.Ibaka, N.Batum, G.Hill, C.Lee, D.Arthur, D.White, K.Koufos, D.Greene, J.Giddens
    Conclusion: It’s very close, call it a draw.

    So from 2001-2008, seven (six at the least) out of eight years, picks 21-30 produced a better group of players than picks 11-20. This is a puzzling trend, considering the general manner in which the draft works.

    Is this a testament to the better teams these players get drafted into, and thus develop better?
     
  2. QazQay

    QazQay Member

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    First off, while I agree that the players in 21-30 have been better you probably want to come up with some objective way of determining that other than your opinion, like with stats or first team selections or something.

    And yea I think there are two main things that go into this.
    First, the better teams are the ones that draft 21-30, and these teams probably have better scouts. San Antonio, for example, pulling Tony Parker at 28.
    Second, when they play on better teams, its easier to become a star. Take Rondo for example. A lot of his success comes from him playing with the Celtics. Big market team, so he gets a lot of attention, plus he's playing with 3 studs in Garnett, Allen, and Pierce, so his assist numbers will be inflated.
     
  3. JMAD21

    JMAD21 Member

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    How can you say that 21-30 is better in 2003?? Theres only three decent players on that list! Theres a two time allstar (David West) and 4 other decent players in 11-20
     
  4. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    This draft will equal 2004.
     
  5. Alvin Choo

    Alvin Choo Member

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    it just proves 1 thing.
    Upside does not necessarily meant better players.

    Looking back into those drafts, most of those pick early are because of their potentials to be good.
     
  6. Sen89

    Sen89 Member

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    - 11-20 may have the best player, but 21-30 has 4 guys who have been key contributors on winning teams (and Howard was an all-star as well). 11-20 has 3, but they haven't had as good careers as the 4 from 21-30.
    - Both groups have 3 journeymen.
    - 11-20 has 2 guys who barely played in the league, 21-30 has 1.

    Like I said, more quality in 21-30.
     
  7. haoafu

    haoafu Contributing Member

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    I didn't bother to check everyone, but Arenas is a second round pick.

    I think the right coaching and development play an importnt role for the stars. Durant has very high TO's in his rookie season, and the team just encouraged him to develop through mistakes. Same for Westbrook who even still have high TO's this year. A lot of coaches wouldn't tolerate that and could easily bench them in favor of the veterans.
     
  8. dreamshake97

    dreamshake97 Member

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    hey i know a better quality than 21-30…

    1-10.

    but we sit in 14-17.. so instead of continuing to be mediocre and drafting at 21-25 then lets get a 1-10 draft pick and draft our star
     
  9. JMAD21

    JMAD21 Member

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    My mistake on Howard, but I still disagree
     

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