To be clear, Brandin measured at 6'3" at the combine without shoes (similar to Reed measuring 6'1" without shoes). They both probably get an inch or 2 with shoes (maybe ~2" since they're 3.75 and 1.75). Not to downplay anything else though, just wanted to point out people should do an apples-to-apples comparison.
I think this is spot on. The traditionally "high upside" toolsy guys in this draft are a large part of what makes this draft weak -- they are pretty mediocre versions of it. Buzelis, Holland, Castle, Risacher, Williams etc. compare very unfavorably to prospects of that style we normally see in lottery contention. I highly highly doubt there's anyone in our FO who will be pounding the table for any of these guys. A guy like Sheppard is super flawed tools-wise, but from a pure data guy perspective he's an elite prospect. Kind of like Sengun. His on/offs, APM metrics, and obviously the shooting and steal rates are off the charts. #1 in Kevin Pelton's stats based rankings for example. Pelton's stats-based rankings last few years: 2024 #1 Sheppard, #2 Clingan 2023 #1 Whitmore, #2 Miller 2022 #1 Chet, #2 Kessler 2021 #1 Sengun #2 Garuba lol 2020 #1 LaMelo, #2 Haliburton 2019 #1 Zion, #2 ? 2018 #1 Luka, #2 Trae I'm sure there will be FO voices who are very much against Sheppard on principle as a small guard without no twitchiness. But I'd guess there will be one or two analytics-oriented voices in the FO who *will* pound the table for him. Maybe Eli Witus?
If Clingan truly is this much hyped to go top 3, I would feel pretty comfortable trading down to lower lottery to a team that wants him if he's there. I feel there's plenty of good prospects in the top-10 range to take and pick up another future pick for trade ammunition. My personal preference without having seen too much tape are Risacher and Topic, assuming Sarr goes first. But I don't like either one enough where a trade down is out of question.
another g-league ignite project? I get that he’s got tools and size, but he’s so far away from contributing and the shooting…yuck. I would be very disappointed. But apparently he’s high on many team’s boards. to be painfully fair, I do think that if he played last year in college instead of the Ignite, he’d be in the conversation for #1. Just think he would have impressed in college with a shallower 3pt line and more structure.
He is a guy I would have been more enthused about last year. We have so many toolsy versatile high-upside guys already. I agree with the "best player available" philosophy, but I think this year if I'm the Rockets I'm setting my dial more toward floor than ceiling and trying to get a safer, more certain contributor who can sit on a rookie contract and help us out inexpensively for some years.
I really hate to pick another white guy comparison but iiwii....I saw someone else mention it, but would you be ok with a slightly bigger, longer more athletic better shooting TJ Mcconnel? I would guess that would be Sheppards floor.
I agree, but I'm torn between we haven't actually found a lead player yet so we need more arrows in the quiver and one of these guys we already have is bound to emerge as one and lets give them the best shot by building around what we already have. I lean more towards your way of thinking of going with the high floor prospects this year.
Only thing is McConnell is actually an excellent point guard, he is #2 in the league in assists per 100 possessions. I see Sheppard as more of a combo guard. I think if we drafted him and he lived up to expectations (but did not exceed them spectacularly) he would naturally fall into a 6th man kind of role for us long-term where he played some point guard and some shooting guard.
What do you expect of Sengun and Amen? I can understand fears over Sheppard's POA defense. I'd assume those fears are like my fears of guys that can't shoot 30% behind the arc before the NBA. I don't get why Sheppard being able to run some point, but not taking away usage from Sengun, Amen, and/or other star is a hindrance to the pick. I'm not completely against drafting someone like Castle or Holland. Their shooting scares me. I don't worry that Amen and Tari are probably going to take the tougher defensive assignments such that Castle is more a helper on defense than the best defender on the floor.
True, but don't you think BP would be a lottery pick if the draft was held again today? And that's in a much better class at the top than this years.
Just one note: I have my favorites, but every prospect in this draft has warts. I worry that the high upside guys are also incredibly low floor guys and low median outcome guys as it is just really hard to have too many non-shooters on the floor (see Detroit). I think the Rockets will draft BPA, but I hope the best BPA guy is also a good fit (which may bias me towards shooters 1-4 and centers that can defend).
