Jose Altuve: 3yr average while missing 25g for rest and small injuries. G:137 Pa: 615 H/AB=AVG: 161/541 = .298 R: 108 2B: 33 3B: 1 HR: 28 RBI: 69 BB: 64 K: 91 SB: 13 OB%/SLG=OPS: .377/.518 = .895 wRC+: 143 fWAR: 5.9
Yordan Alvarez: career averages but over 145g and 4.4 PA per game because in #2 spot. G: 145 Pa: 669 H/AB= AVG: 165/561 = .294 R: 107 2b: 38 3B: 1 HR: 42 RBI: 125 BB: 93 K: 134 OB/SLG= OPS: .401/.590 = .990 wRC+: 168 fWAR: 5.6
Alex Bregman: FA show me year and he's motivated and healthy. Average of 2019 and 2023. G: 159 Pa: 707 H/AB=AVG: 163/588 = .277 R: 113 2b: 33 3b: 3 HR: 33 RBI: 105 BB: 105 K: 86 OB/SLG=OPS: .392/.517 = .909 wRC+: 145 fWAR: 6.3
Kyle Tucker: entering the magical age 27 season and has faced talk of FA, and extensions, poor postseason, and poor fielding efforts in 2023 all offseason. Should be super motivated and he has all the talent in the world = Avg of 2022 and 2023 +10% G: 154 Pa: 678 H/AB=AVG: 176/589=.298 R: 98 2b: 38 3b: 3 HR: 34 RBI: 127 BB: 81 K: 90 SB: 30 OB/SLG=OPS: .382/.552=.934 wRC+: 150 fWAR: 5.3
I think 33 bombs is actually very possible, but I would say 35+ is unrealistic. 28-29 may be more likely, but I just think he's going to have a very good season.
Chas: finally gets 150g/600PA regresses some from last year but still hits his career averages. G: 150 Pa: 600 H/AB=AVG: 138/531=.260 R: 78 2b: 21 3b: 2 HR: 25 RBI: 83 BB: 56 K: 166 SB: 12 OB/SLG= OPS: .337/.448=.785 wRC+: 120 fWAR: 3.8 (lowered a bit from 4.1 for LF rather than CF)
Abreu: 3 days off every 2 weeks + a 10 day/9 game IL stint= 114 games at average of 2022+2023 productivity. G: 114 Pa: 486 H/AB=AVG: 119/435=.274 R: 56 2b: 24 3b: 0 HR: 13 RBI: 63 BB: 40 K: 92 OB/SLG=OPS: .342/.418=.760 wRC+: 110 fWAR: 1.2
33 is "very possible" 34 is your projection 35 is "unrealistic" That's some pretty precise guestimation.
Clearly this is all guestimation but look back - my guesstimate is 33 not 34 and I am expecting Alex to about max out his HR potential.
If he really plays that much then these numbers are solid picks. I could easily see him walking more than that and scoring more runs as well. Maybe not 125 rbi’s outta the 2 hole. Obviously, it’s health with him. Glad Espada listened to me and put him 2nd. Kinda sucks we gotta fire him.
Meyers: gets Chas' playing time from last year = 450 PA. Keeps his K and BB rates from last year and produces at average of 2021 and 2023 numbers, forgetting 2022 happened. G: 120 Pa: 450 H/AB= AVG: 99/408=.243 R: 57 2b: 22 3b: 1 HR: 14 RBI: 54 BB: 34 K: 116 SB: 7 OB/SLG=OPS: .311/.404=.715 wRC+: 99 fWAR: 2.8
