We will at some point see new coverage on the sexual assault claim against Biden. They will try to pull up parts of his record from 30 years ago and the Crime Bill. They will continue to try to tie him and his son to something in the Crimea.
This. When they measure the likability of candidates, Biden is above average for a Presidential general election but he isn't close to a prodigy. Part of Biden's appeal is that people do not have a strong opinion on him. Everyone knows that Biden is a politician and will do and say anything to get elected... but lacks the severity of a Trump or Nixon or HC, so people generally think he is a decent person. Still at the end of the day this is a referendum on Donald Trump and for all the reasons listed, Biden is a solid candidate as long as he avoids too many gaffes. I do not expect Biden to be a special President; although who knows. Sometimes the most accomplished Presidents were not prodigies and rise because of circumstances or charms not readily obvious.
Why won't this keep working? Trump is not going to stop obliterating himself. There's really no evidence that will happen. If there's a magical Coronavirus reversal - basically like miracle cure is discover overnight, maybe we go back to the state where enough people hold their nose and say 'well, least unemployment is low so I'mma just ignore the buffoon!" like some did but that is a far fetched scenario. Biden is basically at or close to his ceiling now. If anything the fact that Trump's attacks can't find purchase is because Biden is not giving him anything to attack, but mostly because Trumps criminality and incompetence and evilness in the face of multiple ingoing national catastrophes sucks up all the attention Sure, you can argue giving a socially distanced speech in Flint will cement his lead. But I can also say "well, what if he didn't?" and that's an equally strong case empirically to argue that it's a wash. Then you're left with the public health question, the answer to which is don't do any gathering at all.
Those are the obvious ones and the ones Biden campaign have hopefully prepared for. Trump isn’t a leader but he sure as hell knows how to be very Machiavellian. It’s the ones they can manufacture that worry me.
They're trying now, have been for a yrar- it's not working. This doesn't stick to Biden in general, he's defineed for better or worse. Just like how Hillary couldn't get people to admit she wasn't Satan. Add to that the fact that the public's eye has shifted to the worst crisis in 100 years and it has no chance of breaking through.
Based on what? Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Im not dismissing the fact, just saying that shouldn’t be your overriding campaign position through November. You seem to dismiss the ability for Biden to shoot himself in the foot.
They may vote for Trump but ... they will have to ignore 10% unemployment, an ongoing trade war with China, lagging economic rebound compared to China and the EU, and all of non-economic BS Trump churns out on a daily basis.
And the primary is the last time a presidential candidate has to explain and convince people of his platform? Probably tripling down on culture war nonsense..... Probably more fake tough guy trade war stuff.... Don't confuse my wariness over the Dem's overconfidence for something else.
Sure. I wouldn't do math on this basis. I guess the point is, for anyone who would say "Wow, Biden +10, he's got a big lead!" just remember these deltas are normal and weakly predictive. The theme of the NYT reporting is that in these key battlegrounds states that Trump managed to win by a hair are now leaning heavily to Biden. But it really doesn't mean anything.
Why shouldn't it be? Lol he's been embarrassing disaster for 4 years, he could maybe survive with this as an outsider or when times were good.... none of those is true now. It's far more ridiculous to expect him to change course now, I mean you could hardly envision a more earth shaking scenario than the last 3 months....and he's the same ****ing ******* selling the same **** sandwich. And now it's hurting and not helping. Dude, you're the guy arguing he should be out doing more but now you say he's gonna **** it up if he goes out and talks. Pick a non diametrically opposed side. But I actually don't think it matters anyway. We are in a cat 5 national shitstorm. 3+ of them. But her emails doesn't work in 2020 like in 2016 because the world has changed. Dramatically. For the worse.
Lol, it's only predictive of the result... otherwise it's meaningless! You didn't vote for Hillary right? Any regrets? Please please don't answer that.
Because this is politics and November is still far away. It's amusing how much you get your panties in a wad with the mere notion that it's not 100% over in late June. No, I'm the dude who is apparently trying to bring some folks back to reality and remind them Biden is still going to have to campaign. You just can't handle any negativity towards the Biden campaign.
Biden’s best quality is he isn’t trump. Trump is one of the dumbest people in the country and just a terrible person. I honestly feel sad for the losers that run around waving his flag and jerking off to his photo like a few of our fellow CFers.
Lol i didn't even vote for Biden. I'm just looking at the numbers and the trajectory, and the possibile future ones like a Bayesian boi and it's ****ing terrible for Trump. IOW - I'm not mad I'm actually just laughing so hard right now. Also I laugh even more heartily at the fact that you think you know what he needs to do to pull ahead in the horse race. You don't, nobody does, to be fair,, but your prescription for a disease that doesn't currently exist has very little rational foundation. I don't think anybody knows the exact hyper right strategy, and to the extent they do ex post it involves tons of luck. But yours makes no sense ex ante and that's where we are...always
