For any nerds out there who read Aasimov's books about Psychohistory (a mathematical science that allows for prediction of future human history) Cliodynamics sounds pretty cool. http://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078 Human cycles: History as science Advocates of 'cliodynamics' say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure. Sometimes, history really does seem to repeat itself. After the US Civil War, for example, a wave of urban violence fuelled by ethnic and class resentment swept across the country, peaking in about 1870. Internal strife spiked again in around 1920, when race riots, workers' strikes and a surge of anti-Communist feeling led many people to think that revolution was imminent. And in around 1970, unrest crested once more, with violent student demonstrations, political assassinations, riots and terrorism (see 'Cycles of violence'). To Peter Turchin, who studies population dynamics at the University of Connecticut in Storrs, the appearance of three peaks of political instability at roughly 50-year intervals is not a coincidence. For the past 15 years, Turchin has been taking the mathematical techniques that once allowed him to track predator–prey cycles in forest ecosystems, and applying them to human history. He has analysed historical records on economic activity, demographic trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that a new wave of internal strife is already on its way1. The peak should occur in about 2020, he says, and will probably be at least as high as the one in around 1970. “I hope it won't be as bad as 1870,” he adds. Turchin's approach — which he calls cliodynamics after Clio, the ancient Greek muse of history — is part of a groundswell of efforts to apply scientific methods to history by identifying and modelling the broad social forces that Turchin and his colleagues say shape all human societies. It is an attempt to show that “history is not 'just one damn thing after another'”, says Turchin, paraphrasing a saying often attributed to the late British historian Arnold Toynbee. More at link.
No doubt 2020 will be a year of tumult. We have financial woes, tension here and throughout the world, dwindling resources, just to name a few problems. I would be surprised if there's not a major war- something on the scale of world war II- or some sort of massive civil war in usually stable countries like the US. I plan on getting out of here by then, I recommend others at least consider the same.
Interesting. The old testament refers to what is called a Jubilee which is a 50 year cycle... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_(biblical) Crazy Mayans AND Jews.
Similar to the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory. http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss-Howe_generational_theory Nailing down exact dates in the future is futile, but there is substance behind a lot of it. Transportation, communications, and various other technologies would affect the rate of cycles in unpredictable ways.
By 2020 Jason's Deli plans to have 600 stores. So while the USA might be bad, they will have a bunch of sandwiches.
Having read the most popular theories on cyclical histories, I don't think human beings operate that way. Instead, I think this quote below sums it best for me: "That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history." Aldous Huxley I see people in politics make the same mistakes and use the same tactics as people in the past. We just don't learn from experience because most people are ignorant and/or proud.
I think the rural Midwest, Northern Europe and Australia are going to get a lot more American yuppies. Other than that, maybe nachos at Pizza Hut or pornos on your wristwatch.
Nacho pizza? Sounds delicious. But, I do see the country becoming more divided. Either we're going to achieve more consensus (like you think) or we'll reach the brink of civil war. I do think we're overdue for a big war though. Most likely a proxy war between us and china played out in africa and the middle east.
This interests somewhat because Vernor Vinge predicts 'The Singularity' to occur before 2030. I thought there is no way in hell this will happen when I first read it, but the exponential tech growth we've witnessed over the past decade makes me think he may be right. And he's been right before with tech predictions. _____ From Wiki: A 1993 article by Vinge, "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era",[4] was widely disseminated on the internet and helped to popularize the idea.[36] This article contains the oft-quoted statement, "Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended." Vinge refines his estimate of the time scales involved, adding, "I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030." Vinge predicted four ways the singularity could occur: The development of computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent. Large computer networks (and their associated users) may "wake up" as a superhumanly intelligent entity. Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent. Biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect. Vinge continues by predicting that superhuman intelligences will be able to enhance their own minds faster than their human creators. "When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress," Vinge writes, "that progress will be much more rapid." This feedback loop of self-improving intelligence, he predicts, will cause large amounts of technological progress within a short period, and that the creation of superhuman intelligence represented a breakdown in humans' ability to model their future. His argument was that authors cannot write realistic characters who surpass the human intellect, as the thoughts of such an intellect would be beyond the ability of humans to express. Vinge named this event "the Singularity".
Just regular nachos, like wings. Surprised they didn't do that first. The average American can think of twenty times as many fast food ideas as they can fiscal, trade or diplomatic strategies; and that's where all the money and brains will stay in this country.
I wouldn't bet on it being a proxy war so much as idiot dictators monetizing their trade relationships to fund their own psychotic blood lust. But since DoD and State (somewhat prudently) don't distinguish between economic and military threats abroad, that could totally happen.
