I’m very pessimistic lately about sports happening before there’s a vaccine. But if there is a MLB season then I would bet there’s a minor league season of some kind; at a minimum an expanded Fall League where each org gets a full roster for ~30 games.
One of the Independent leagues is starting up in July http://kduz.com/2020/06/15/st-paul-saints-are-back/
There is a fairly good chance they develop a vaccine for this particular virus. However, you are right that people need to stop assuming we can simply whip one up. What we are likely to do is find ways to limit the effectiveness of the virus and cut the fatality rate. We don't even know the long term effects of the virus at this point.
On fatality rate, I hope it will drop once most people have had it once. For the most part, I am surprised Americans have flattened the curve as much as they have.
My local independent league starts back July 1. They limited tickets to 1/3 of capacity (my seats were moved as part of the accommodation). We're actually having fanfest on Saturday, which seems silly to still have, IMO. I think they are even making extra games by creating a split squad team.
HIV is a worthless comp. HIV does not spread easily and is (was) very deadly, which made it both easy to avoid and hard to ignore. The behavior mod required to “learn to live” with HIV meant people wearing condoms and not sharing needles. COVID appears to spread very easily and appears to be only marginally more deadly than seasonal flu. The behavioral changes required to live with it are much more severe (avoiding other people altogether, wearing a mask whenever that’s not possible), and people are less motivated to do those things because it’s not as deadly (and because of a mass disinformation campaign and lack of clear consensus direction from experts and leaders). I am very confident that a vaccine or treatment will be developed, it is just a matter of when it is available and how effective it is. My expectation is that a vaccine will be widely available next spring and that it will be effective enough to reduce Ro <1 so that the virus goes away. But that may not happen, in which case you are right we will have to learn to live with it. But I don’t think the sports world will give up the idea of protecting people until that is known, which could be late next year.
Of course the sports world will try to protect people. I don't think waiting/hoping for a vaccine is it. My guess is that enough people get it such that future outbreaks are less severe and are able to be managed with contact tracing. Though, states like Texas need to get off there ass and put in provisions to get levels down in cities.
I suspect that there is a zero percent chance of me catching HIV at a baseball game. I’m just saying.
I don't know man. You never know what you can catch down in Arlington's new replica MMP stadium. Definitely wouldn't rule anything out.
You aren't getting the full fan experience. Try harder. I'm not optimistic about this season MLB or minors. Even if they get it started I expect some players/coaches to catch it and then they probably shut it down. Owners will be like see we tried... no more dinero for the players.
Bored. IF all teams in the Org were to begin play today with a 30 man MLB roster, here’s my guess at what the rosters would look like: MLB Astros: C: Garneau, Maldonado IF: Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, Toro OF: Tucker, Springer, Brantley, Straw, Alvarez SP: Verlander, Greinke, McCullers, Urquidy, James RP: Peacock, Armenteros, Sneed, Valdez, Pruitt, Smith, Biagini, Devenski, Abreu, Pressly, Osuna Suspended: Martes AAA: C: Stubbs, Quintana, Ritchie IF: Jones, Mayfield, De Goti, Tanielu, A Sierra, Duarte OF: Ferguson, R Dawson, McCormick, Wrenn SP: Whitley, Javier, Bielak, C Perez, Emanuel RP: Hartman, LaRue, McKee, Blanco, Ferrell, Garza, Taylor Inactive: Scheetz, McCurry, G Valdez AA: C: Robinson, Shaver, Papierski IF: Adams, Santana, Pena, M Sierra, Hensley, Matijevic OF: De La Cruz, Julks, Meyers, Benedetti SP: Ivey, N Rodriguez, E Paredes, Conine, Donato, Bailey, Torres, L Rodriguez RP: Sanabria, N Hernandez, Scrubb, Collado, DeJuneas Inactive: Canelon High A: C: Salazar, C Stubbs, Manea IF: Schreiber, Wielansky, Kessinger, E Valdez, AJ Lee OF: Taylor, Adolph, McKenna, W Abreu, Costes SP: Deason, L Garcia, Dubin, Hansen, L Chavez, Mushinski, Solomon, Daniels, Ruppenthal RP: Ceballos, France, Cabral, Tejada Inactive: Castellanos, Saldana, Rosado A: C: K Lee, Campos, Perry IF: Zimmerman, Carrasco, Nova, J Perez, Biermann, Arias OF: Guerrero, Brewer, Machado, R Rodriguez SP: H Brown, Henley, Solis, Rivera, Bellozo, Gusto, M Ramirez, JP Lopez RP: Freure, Bravo, Medina, Gayle, Serrano Inactive: Paulino, Holderbach, Bermudez, Henderson, Conn, Moclair, Cody, West Low A: C: N Rodriguez, Krabbe, J Alvarez IF: Cueta, JC Correa, Whitcomb, Y Ramirez, Coutinho, S Mendoza, Urdaneta OF: Barefoot, Daniels, Barber, Corona, Dirden, Orr P: Macuare, T Brown, Ja Lopez, Barry, Casey, J Chavez, E Rodriguez, De Paula, Dickey, Drennan, Horrell, Jaquez, McDonald, Gomez, Mejias, Plumlee, Endersby, Sprinkle, Gruller, Matthews Rookie: C: Palma, Hurtado, Castillo IF: C Gonzalez, Y Martinez, J Mendoza, Jordan, Espinosa OF: Uceta, Rivas, Carrillo, Pinto, Cortabarria, Giron, F Perez, T Ramirez P: Santos, Schroeder, Tokar, Vega, F Garcia, F Gonzalez, Holcomb, Jimenez, Taveras, Palmer, Pereira, Robaina, Solano, Padilla, J Ramirez, Subero, Reina, Bojorquez, Tamarez, Cobos DSL: Santander, Giulamo, R Toro, Balogh, Ortiz, Lorenzo, Morales, Diaz, Jose, Liranzo, Machandy, Caldera, Garcia, Monzon, Cooper, R Gonzalez, Batista, Beltre, Betances, Calderon, DeLosSantos, Eusebio, R Garcia, R Leon, Melendez, Molero, Nodal, Pachero, L Perez, Payano, Encarnacion, D De La Cruz, Guzman, Martich
Snake could’ve made up the last 2-4 rosters and I’m not sure anyone would/could notice. I certainly couldn’t. Didn’t see Pedro Leon anywhere. Hopefully he and the past 2 draft classes can surprise some folks.
Pedro Leon hasn't officially signed yet. I think he was waiting for this years international signing period to get more money(which the period got pushed back to Sept or something).
Now that the MLB season is scheduled I wonder if there will be a minor league season. I very much doubt NYP league will play, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Texas League had a 40 game season. Same for the PCL.
Can't imagine a non complex based league playing without fans. Maybe they can set up some games played at spring training facilities.
I think it’s feasible for some minor leagues to play in front of fans, although with less than full attendance. Attending an outdoor baseball game with the stadium at 50% capacity is probably much less of a risk than eating inside a restaurant. Of course that assumes that the area the team is in is not in full blown crisis, which is where Texas is currently headed. It’s probably wishful thinking, but having one full season league (like AA) and the complex league (GCL) get in 40 games, plus an expanded fall league, would really help prevent minor leaguers from a completely lost season.
I agree it's feasible for some teams to play with fans, and I think it's a real bummer because minor league baseball seems like the type of event you could bring your family to fairly cheaply and safely right now, I just don't see how something like PCL could operate. It has teams from Tacoma to round rock to Iowa. You could rearrange the schedule to make sure teams only play others close to them, but the threat of one of the teams getting prevented from having any fans seems pretty real. In the end, I think it would just make a lot more sense to have two levels played at spring training complexes. I hope they'll have MiLB in some capacity before the fall, but I'm not too optimistic.
