Alvarez kinda took Tucker's spot with the Astros this year and going forward. The OF is now a bit crowded. If the Astros can sign Springer to a long term contract, I would be willing to part with Tucker.
I would be shocked if they see Myles Straw as an everyday OFer, given his total lack of power. He feels very much like the 25th man on any roster. He can run, has some versatility - but more playing time would probably expose his limitations.
He took Tucker's spot in terms of potential - but, by every indication, Alvarez is going to primarily DH out of necessity as he is apparently not good defensively, and the Astros very obviously value defense with their OFers. Yes; it's crowded today. It won't be much longer. I suspect they will actively step up their efforts to deal Reddick this winter (if not this week), and I don't think there's *any* chance they'll retain Springer.
Hopefully Alvarez took White's spot, and a lot of the OF DH PAs. He didn't take Tucker's spot. Tucker is likely a RF that Alvarez can't play. Alvarez, Straw, Tucker OF could be an interesting 2021 OF.
I am warming to the idea of Straw as an everyday OF. His performance so far has been impressive (.256/.376/.321, 110 wRC+, 0.8 fWAR in 46 G). I would rather they extend Springer and have Straw as the 4th OF, but if they can’t afford Springer or need to trade Tucker to get the pitching they need, I’m ok with at least giving him a shot; a guy who gets on base 38% of the time and has elite defensive and baserunning value is an everyday guy even with zero power.
Honestly, our failure thus far to develop a legitimate front end starter has me seeing the end of the road with this current group. We'll be great next season for sure, and we have enough locked in talent to fill the gaps in 21 with trades, beyond that isn't something I would be planning for all that much. Not saying push all our chips in or anything like that, but the dwindling pitching situation has me being realistic. Adding guys like Cole and Verlander isn't nearly as easy to do as we made it look.
Pitching is fungible. If Astros keep developing hitting prospects like they have, they can trade for an ace nearly every year as the Astros are close to saturation at positions.
He's slugging .321; his career slugging % in the minors is .374. I know his speed is elite and he can obviously get on base - but I just don't think he can play everyday slugging sub-.400.
Just as quickly as guys you expect to be ToR SP flame out (Martes, Whitley, Martin, etc.), guys come out of nowhere and become Aces (nobody expected Keuchel to win a Cy Young). Things may look bleak right now but the system is still very deep with high ceiling pitching. And even if they aren’t able to develop aces internally, as long as they keep the pipeline pumping out quality everyday position players, they might be able to trade them for pitching or have enough money to buy the pitching they need to continue contending. And the position player pipeline is also pretty deep in potential everyday guys: C Lee 1B Beer 2B Rojas SS Pena, Nova 3B Toro OF Tucker, Barber, Brewer
Lance McCullers isn't a front end starter?... It sure seems like they've run into some bad luck with their pitchers. Given how much they've improved quite a few MLB pitchers - I just find it hard to believe they don't at least have a fairly decent idea what they're doing.
It’s also interesting to look back at the different avenues thru which Houston has acquired good starting pitching. Here’s the list of Astros pitchers to post a 3+ fWAR season since 2015 with how they were acquired: Cole: acquired by trading 4 2nd tier prospects Verlander: acquired by trading 1 top prospect and 2 2nd tier prospects (subsequently extended) Keuchel: drafted Morton: signed to 3rd tier free agent deal Peacock: came over as a prospect (Lowrie trade) McHugh: claimed off of waivers If you drop the bar to 2.5 fWAR, you add McCullers (drafted) and Devenski (came over as a prospect in the Brett Myers trade). So of the 8 “good” pitchers the Astros have had over the last 5 seasons: 2 were drafted 2 were acquired via trade as lowly rated prospects 1 was claimed off of waivers 1 was signed to a 3rd tier free agent deal 2 were acquired via trade as established pitchers (but neither required more than 3 good prospects, none in the mlb top 50) If anything, Luhnow has proven he can acquire ToR SP without spending a bunch of money or giving up elite prospects.
I'd rather Astros decide on who plays by who helps them win more games, than have arbitrary boundaries that exclude a player based on his greatest weakness. For Straw, I expect him to be a worse hittter than Kemp more in line with his minor league numbers than his small sample major league number. He'll pick up a ton of value on base running. Defense is the key for Straw. If he can use his speed to be a defensive force, he'll be valuable enough to start, but would be great as a 4th OF. I'm hoping Astros keep Springer so they can keep a big bat in OF without having to play Alvarez in LF as often.
No, McCullers is not a front end starter. I don't consider a guy that has never pitched more than 128.1 innings in a season a front end starter. Syndergaard has had some injury problems but in only one season has he pitched less than 128.1 innings. He's already at 126.2 this season and still has 2 months to go.
I don't think he can be called a front end starter. He has never pitched more than 130 innings in a season and his era the last few years has been around 4.00.... I think he still has the potential to be a #2-3 starter for a few seasons if he gets healthy and matures but that is a question mark for sure. The Astros have had the pitching prospects pass through the system, they just haven't panned out so far. Francis Martes, Mark Appel and Forest Whitley all were elite prospects and so far the Astros have nothing to show for it. If you look at the Astros pitchers, very few worth a damn have come from the Astros system. That could be bad luck, that could be a failing in the Astros evaluation...... it could be many things..... However as it is..... it 6 months we are looking at Verlander, McCullers (coming off injury) and a whole bunch of question marks. Cole/Miley/McHugh/Smith/Rondon/Harris all gone. The Tigers also will stop paying 8 million dollars of Verlander's contract at the end of this year. The total anticipated cost of the payroll after arbitration costs are figured in, is 3-4 million dollars more than this year and that is without a #2 starter, a #3 starter and 4 relievers...... all which will need to be replaced. There is going to be a lot of holes to fill with limited finances. On one hand ideally roles are filled within the system, on the other hand, the Astros will need pitching right away........... it is why I would not be shocked if Tucker is dealt for a pitcher under several seasons of team control that can be a #2 starter. That is also why Cole is an extreme long shot to resign. Figure into that Crane saying they won't go into the tax. They can likely live with: Verlander, traded for #2 starter, McCullers, Peacock and Whitley or someone else in 2020 and still compete at a high level.
The Astros are not just going to have rotation issues, but bullpen issues as well. The reality is we will not have the finances to sign a bunch of good relievers. We will need to trade for guys under team control, develop our own (we haven't yet) or sign very cheap reclamation projects.
