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2019 Trade Speculation and/or Rumors Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Joe Joe, May 1, 2019.

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  1. Buck Turgidson

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    Has he really said that since he first said it, what, 3 years ago? That would be fun to know.
     
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  2. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    He said it in an interview at the Winter Meetings before this season.
     
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  3. Buck Turgidson

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    I'd love to hear what he said, that's way too long ago for me to remember anything...there's different levels of luxury tax, Luhnow has mentioned that before as well.
     
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  4. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/astros-owner-willing-to-add-to-payroll-c301681402

    Like most clubs, the Astros have their limits. Crane said the club has no plans to raise its payroll higher than the luxury-tax threshold, which would come with severe financial penalties. The Red Sox and Nationals were the only teams subject last season to the Competitive Balance Tax after exceeding the payroll threshold of $197 million. That number will be $206 million next year.
    "I'd say if the right situation came along -- certainly we're not going over [the luxury-tax threshold] -- but we could move closer to that," Crane said. "We were pretty high up in the food chain last year. A lot of teams realize the penalty is pretty severe if you go over. We'll stay within the strike zone."
     
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  5. Buck Turgidson

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    That's the quote I remember. But hooowevah...there's a bunch of leeway there, like 20+ million. Not my money, not my budget, but there's no hard line at 206 or whatever it is. I'd hope that a few million wouldn't stop them from making a move to try and get another ring.

    Going over multiple years in a row is where they get you.
     
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  6. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Even the Yankees and Dodgers try to circumvent/avoid the tax.

    There is still room to raise the payroll if they need to. The revenues certainly support it.
     
  7. Hey Now!

    Hey Now! Contributing Member

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    I have not read that interview with Morton. And I know the Astros didn't offer him the QO because the overwhelming sentiment was that Morton would've jumped on it, given his previous statements about his commitment to the team and his lack of desire to go elsewhere.

    I think, in the end, while they would've taken Morton back, it had to be at the right cost.

    If you know they're not remotely the same, why do you keep bringing Morton up as proof they won't sign Cole? The Astros have budgetary constraints, sure - but that's not why Charlie Morton is in Tampa Bay. He's in Tampa Bay because he's a 35-year old pitcher with a long track record of injury who broke down last season, and the Astros did not deem him worthy of the deal he likely wanted.

    Cole is a 27-year old ace who may very well be the best pitcher in baseball. And before you "yeah but" me with Charlie Morton's '19 stats (which are indeed spectacular), remember: 35 v 27 (their ages) and 540 v 438 (which is the # of innings they've totaled since 2017).

    They are not remotely comparable, and therefore, using Morton as proof the Astros won't actively engage Cole has zero merit. They might not. But we know they've kicked the tires on extending him and I doubt they did so thinking he'd settle for $.75 on the dollar.

    I never, ever said the Astros would do anything; merely countered your lock-solid contention they'll do nothing. And now, your absurd contention that how they managed a 35-year old pitcher will somehow predict how they'll manage a 27-year old ace.

    I would guess that's a coincidence... I don't know why you just flat-out reject a fairly common sense answer that the team didn't deem Morton worth the QO nor the deal he eventually signed in TB. He's 35! He broke down badly last year. He has a long track record of being rather unreliable. It *could* have been budgetary - but there's enough to suggest it was more than that.
     
  8. Buck Turgidson

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    Here ya go, per mlb.com:

    Each year, clubs that exceed a predetermined payroll threshold are subject to a Competitive Balance Tax -- which is commonly referred to as a "luxury tax." Those who carry payrolls above that threshold are taxed on each dollar above the threshold, with the tax rate increasing based on the number of consecutive years a club has exceeded the threshold.

    The threshold was $189 million from 2014-16, but the following increases were put in place per the 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement:

    2017: $195 million*

    2018: $197 million

    2019: $206 million

    2020: $208 million

    2021: $210 million

    *For 2017 only, clubs that exceed the threshold shall pay the average between what their luxury tax would be under the 2017-21 Collective Bargaining Agreement rules and what it would have been per the previous CBA.

    A club exceeding the Competitive Balance Tax threshold for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages. A club exceeding the threshold for a second consecutive season will see that figure rise to 30 percent, and three or more straight seasons of exceeding the threshold comes with a 50 percent luxury tax. If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.

    Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax. Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

    Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.
     
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  9. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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    Math? Nobody said that there would be any math involved.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Here’s your 8 guys:

    Osuna
    Pressly
    TBD
    Peacock
    Harris
    McHugh
    James
    Smith/Rondon/Urquidy/Devenski (whoever is throwing best come playoff time)
     
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  11. Buck Turgidson

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    Barring a total disaster, Smith will be in that pen.

    eta: they went with 11 pitchers in the DS, and 12 in the ALCS

    eta2: I just hope they make the playoffs
     
    #951 Buck Turgidson, Jul 23, 2019
    Last edited: Jul 23, 2019
  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    He has said it a few times over the last few years. He said it this winter as well.

    His situation is a little unusual in that he has to answer to a large group of investors and is still paying off debt.

    Now, some of the investors have come out and said they trust Crane and will support what he wants to do. Still the situation is different than 1-2 people owning the team.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

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    My brain got roasted yesterday, it was only 101 in the shade. No workey no good ahora.

    I know the situation with Crane. Not that they publicize this stuff, but what's the debt service situation? Free and clear in 20 years or something?
     
  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Even the last 48 hours have pretty much solidified the Rangers, Mets, and Rockies as sellers, which puts at least Minor and Wheeler on the market and probably means Lynn, Syndergaard, and Jon Gray are at least being discussed. It’s also solidified the Giants as buyers, so Bumgarner is off the table.

    The Diamondbacks are the team who could still sway the market. They’re only 1 game out of the WC, but they’d definitely be best served long term by trading Greinke and Ray.
     
  15. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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  16. CinematicFusion

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  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    No. For me, Tucker has about $60M in surplus value, whereas Thor probably has about half that much. I think Bukauskas, Abreu, and a 3rd prospect of similar value (from a list of Fisher, Straw, Stubbs, Toro, Nova, Beer, Rojas, Urquidy, Ivey, etc.) is fair value.
     
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  18. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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  19. CinematicFusion

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    Fair point.
    Astros look likely to make a solid move. Interesting to see what happens
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Odd. I thought I was the low man on Thor. Astros aren't trading Tucker for Thor, but it is going to be tough matching value unless Mets really like some other prospect like Nova.
     
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