Scherzer I would love. He's one of the rare guys (along with JV) who I feel VERY confident in long-term arm health, and I've dreamt of him in Astros colors since his Tiger days. Tim Cate is a prospect I'd love from them because of his FILTHY curveball. Also, if we can try and get Doolittle too, that would kill two birds with one stone. Since we're playing Pretend GM: Tucker and JBB for Scherzer, Doolittle, Cate, and cash consideration. Maybe add in another expendable throw in if they demand it.
Meh. Whether or not Reddick’s career is his median outcome, he’s still one of the 20 best prospects in the game. That’s worth more than a #2 pitcher (who has a rep as an a-hole) with only 1 year of extra control left.
So you basically want the Nats to give him to us. I agree they will clearly have to eat some significant salary to trade him, but he is still pitching at a legit ace level. Hell, when we traded for Verlander he was pitching nowhere near Scherzer's level and they didn't have to eat all of his salary, much less send prospects back to us. I would get legitimately pissed if Luhnow called me with that offer.
You’re right, it’s too much. But It’s just a matter of surplus value. Tucker and Alvarez have $50-60M in surplus value each. Scherzer is owed $35M/yr thru 2021. Assuming he’s expected to maintain his dominant performance thru the end of his contract, he’s worth around $50M/yr. So for Scherzer to be worth Tucker or Alvarez, the Nats would have to eat about $30M. As much as I would love having Scherzer to go along with Cole and Verlander, I don’t think he’s a realistic target for the Astros. Not only is it questionable if he will even be available, I don’t think Houston can afford to take on even 60% of his salary. Add to that the fact that Luhnow is loathe to give up elite prospects and the Nats will likely have plenty of suitors. Bumgarner, Stroman, and Synergaard are probably more likely targets, and none of them will require giving up Alvarez or Tucker.
This is why Top 25 position prospects are rarely traded. They are very valuable, but that $50-60M could turn in to $0 or $150M quickly.
I agree on his worth. That’s why I said Kluber not Tyler (1.5 years too short). Saying Scherzer and Washington paying all his salary is extreme the other way. I’d think Greinke with the Dbacks eating 60% or so would be a more realistic starting place. Or maybe Thor straight up?
There are 18 teams with a current <25% chance of making the playoffs this season. Scanning those rosters, here are the tiers of pitchers who are likely to be available that might make sense for Houston: Borderline ToR SP: Stroman Lynn Minor Syndergaard Wheeler Sonny Gray Greinke Ray Bumgarner MoR SP with upside: Heaney Matz Jon Gray Bundy Duffy Leake Archer Samardzija Relievers with closing experience: Givens Colome Greene Diekman Boxberger Hendriks Soria Leclerc Diaz Iglesias Vasquez Kela Davis Holland Smith Melancon Watson Dyson Upside relievers: Jimenez Kennedy Peralta Petit Kelley Gsellman Lugo Garrett Liriano Bradley Bettis One look at the reliever market tells me it’ll be a buyers’ market, and that Houston should be able to add a good reliever for a relatively low cost. The starting pitching market won’t be as cheap, unless rebuilding teams add to the supply by making young controllable players available (like Boyd and Giolito). But I still think Luhnow will be able to make a decent deal; it just might not be a Verlander/Cole type of pitcher unless it’s Bumgarner or Greinke. I will say Heaney, Matz, and Ray are all very interesting to me. It’s a shame Taillon is hurt; he seems like he would have been the perfect target.
I also think Houston will add a catcher. Here are the likely options: James McCann Narvaez Lucroy Phegley Avila Ramos Iannetta Barnhart Maldonado Wieters Wolters Diaz Cervelli Castillo
I would go all in for Scherzer. With Cole and Miley hitting free agency our rotation looks thin heading into next year with Verlander, an innings limited McCullers, Peacock, Framber/James/Whitley/Martin/Urquidy. I would be willing to give up a ton to get Scherzer because we have to get his salary down as well which means an overpay in terms of prospect value. Tucker, Martin, Toro, Abreu, and Joe Smith for Scherzer, Doolittle, and 45 million Verlander Scherzer Cole Miley Peacock Osuna Pressly Doolittle Harris Rondon McHugh James Devenski
That would be a massive overpay. The prospect package has $135M in surplus value ($60M for Tucker, $40M for Martin, $20M each for Toro and Abreu, -$5M for Smith). In exchange you get Scherzer, who has about $35M in surplus value, plus Doolittle, who has about $15M in surplus value, and $45M, for a total of $95M. Take out Martin and it’d be a pretty fair deal. And if Scherzer was available, I would like that deal for both sides, except the Nats have a full outfield. My current hypothetical for Scherzer: Nats get: RHP Forrest Whitley RHP JB Bukauskas Astros get: SP Max Scherzer $40M
I'm willing to overpay. No way a pitcher that could barely get an out in AAA and is back in West Palm Beach "strengthening" his shoulder, and another guy with an ERA over 6 in AA gets you Scherzer.
If that’s really how you think organizations would value or describe Whitley and Bukauskas, then you don’t know how pitching prospects are evaluated or valued. That said, I agree Whitley being in EST probably makes it less likely he is traded. But Scherzer being traded is also very unlikely.
Show me the trade in the history of MLB where an injured prospect with an ERA over 12 in AAA landed one of the top 2-3 pitchers in baseball. If Whitely comes back and dominates for a month.. then yea it would be possible.
What a ridiculous request. There are probably less than 10 trades in the last 30 years involving “one of the top 2-3 pitchers in baseball”. So you think Tucker is a good fit? Show me in the history of mlb where a corner outfielder who posted a .599 OpS in April was traded for one of the top 2-3 pitchers in baseball.
Comparing a guy that got off to a slow start and is now raking with 21 HRs and a .956 OPS versus a pitcher that is back at the Spring Training facility with fatigue/weakness in his pitching shoulder after getting shelled over and over again..... Do you think the GM of the Nats could really sell the idea of trading Scherzer to his owner for someone in Whitley's current situation? C'mon. Tucker makes sense for the Nats. Eaton has 2 options years left after this season. They could trade him at the deadline or let him walk in the offseason and have an outfield of Soto, Robles, and Tucker to build around.
Tucker, Whitley, and/or Alvarez are not being traded before the trade deadline. There is no moral high ground in the this guy who's not being traded is more likely to be traded that that guy who isn't being traded.
I'd be all in for trading for Scherzer as long as the Nats pick up the Deferred Salary on his contract.
I'm not sure the Astros attempt a trade for a ToR SP. Our top prospects are likely off-limits. As Snake put it, the market for RP seems much more appealing. If we can upgrade Devo, I'll be happy.
Most likely, I see us trading for a #3 or 4 starter with control, a top-end reliever, and maybe a backup catcher (to give Chirinos rest). An extra veteran bat to fortify our bench and help us in slugfests (and in platoons) would be nice, but probably a luxury.
