He probably should be, but honestly, every time he pitches, I've been underwhelmed. His FB is not what all the scouting reports says it is, and the curveball isn't the hammer the reports say it is either. He's 92-94mph and hasn't sniffed anywhere near 98mph baseballamerica or mlb.com says he tops out at. They said he had bone spurs which may have caused his loss of velocity, but when he came back, it was still 92-94. The curve is inconsistent and only occasionally flashes plus at times, and I think his only true plus pitch is changeup So a 24 year old (will play all of next year at 25) who's literally always hurt every year with slightly above average stuff, how good of a prospect is he really? I suppose he could be at 15 and bump Christian Javier down since he's in AAA, but I honestly don't see Paulino panning out into what we all thought he could be.
I've also been thinking, Abraham Toro is actually a year younger than JJ Matijevic and is showing great plate discipline with 40 walks and has a decent strikeout rate. Perhaps he should be rated higher than JJ given he has the ability to play 3B and has played some 2B and C as well with an above average arm. Something to think about.
He topped out at 97.43 in the majors in 2016, so he's definitely shown the velocity. The Astros kinda rushed him back from injury in 2017, so I'm not sure how much we should draw from what he looked like there. The injuries/PED thing is definitely a concern, but that's why I wouldn't put him #4 on the list, where his talent probably belongs.
Solid list. Can't argue with your top 8 too much, but I think you're overrating James and Solis. Both have premium stuff, but James is still walking guys and Solis doesn't have the body of work yet. No real beef with your top 30; I'd have Bostick and Dykxhoorn and Adcock ahead of guys like Solomon and Framber and H Perez but pitching is extremely subjective. I also think you'll be surprised at how good Schroeder will be.
My top 12: 1. Whitley 2. Tucker 3. Alvarez 4. Cionel Perez 5. Seth Beer 6. Corbin Martin 7. Freudis Nova 8. Jayson Schroeder 9. Miles Straw 10. JB Bukauskas 11. Jonathan Arauz 12. Josh James
James has cut down his walks in AAA so far. His K's have gone down too (he is still striking out a lot) but he has almost a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio now. I trust the Astros scouts and coaches to call James up when he is ready, but there isn't much more he can prove in the minors if the Astros intend to use him in the pen. With the prospect of losing 4/5th's of the rotation over the next few years, I have to wonder if they intend to make him a starter long term. I know that the Astros are debating that with Perez right now.
I have Solomon that high mostly because he has a slight chance to start and he's got plus stuff. It seemed like the Astros targeted him and knew they could unlock some potential there. Akeem Bostick I like, seems super projectable at 6'6, but reports are his FB are still around 90-91mph. I'm not sure what his upside really is given his fringe fastball. Same with Dykxhoorn, monster at 6'8 but fastball is 90-92mph and he's already 23 so there's probably not much to project there. I just think both Perez and Framber will at least be MLB relievers given their plus stuff whereas Dykxhoorn might end up being a AAAA guy with a few appearances in the bigs here and there but won't be a difference maker. That's just my opinion of course. Solis is all about projection. An 18 year old at 6'2 160lbs who can get it up to 96mph with solid secondary pitches is almost like a scout's dream. His command has been iffy in Quad Cities, but like I said, I think the numbers will surprise you by the time the season ends. With his stuff, his age, projectability, and experience there's no question he should be higher ranked than a guy like Schroeder. He just has a slight edge in every category...for now at least. Brett Adcock I think is appropriately ranked, he's definitely a bullpen guy with only 2 pitches and his command is iffy. He's getting great results thus far which is why he's at 21. Schroeder and Joe Perez will likely rocket up once they show what they can do in pro ball. Only reason I have them where they're at is because they literally haven't done anything yet. I think the guy who I have overrated the most might be Christian Javier. Insane production, literally insane, but we've seen that in the past with other prospects in other organizations, guys who aren't really projectable without plus stuff but dominating the lower minors. They typically end up AAAA guys. And again, are we all biased against Josh James because of the factors I listed already? He's got a typical starters' body, FB up to 98mph, swing and miss slider, ability to throw a changeup, and production in AAA. What more can we ask for?? A late bloomer, but a bloomer nonetheless.
Is your 4/5ths everyone but LMJ? I think Keuchel is likely gone, and Morton will retire soon, but hard to imagine we lose both JV and Cole?
Just noticed that Juan Robles got released from Tri-City. Robles made it all the way to Quad Cities in 2015, his debut year, but after missing the vast majority of 2016, he never got back on track.
My top 30: 1)Forrest Whitley 2)Kyle Tucker 3)Yordan Alvarez 4)JB Bukauskas 5)Cionel Perez 6)Corbin Martin 7)Jonathan Arauz 8)Josh James 9)Fruedis Nova 10)Seth Beer 11)Jorge Alcala 12)Jairo Solis 13)David Paulino 14)Joe Perez 15)Rogelio Armenteros 16)Jayson Schroeder 17)JJ Matijevic 18)Myles Straw 19)Hector Perez 20)Josh Rojas 21)Abraham Toro 22)Patrick Sandoval 23)Cristian Javier 24)Tyler Ivey 25)Framber Valdez 26)Gilberto Celestino 27)Garrett Stubbs 28)Enmanuel Valdez 29)Jeremy Pena 30)Dean Deetz I'm probably going to be lower on Beer than most because with his defensive profile he really has to hit to be worth anything (so far so good) and even if he does hit, his ceiling isn't as high as other prospects. Bukauskas I'm still high on, because as far as I know, the injury doesn't have carry long term implications, and his stuff was better than Martin and Perez pre injury.
Surprised to see Arauz in the top 10, but he's definitely one to look out for. His swing from the left side is gorgeous. Hopefully he can start filling out a bit and hitting the ball with more authority more consistently.
I think the biggest thing working against him are the Astros pitchers. Luhnow will try to protect every asset he has as he doesn't know who will be healthy/pitching well in the future.
He looks a lot bigger this year, especially in the lower half, so I buy the power he's shown this year. My numbers 4-12 were all in the same tier, so it was just a personal preference, so I'll take the teenage shortstop with full season success over players that may be lower variance, but have more obvious flaws in their game.
OF Luis Payano was released from High A. He was a $500k DSL signee years ago and was always on my radar as an athletic OF with som upside. Showed double digit HR power but didn’t end up having a carrying tool.
Cole is a goner if he is remotely close to what he's been for us, he will be 30 and looking for as big a pay day as he can muster. Keuchel is likely gone to the highest bidder this offseason. Verlander is a little harder to project. He will be 37 years old when the 2020 season starts, so nobody is gonna offer a long term deal. Without knowing anything about his personal desires, or how he will perform, I wouldn't find it unreasonable that we could come to an agreement. I'm sure Luhnow will scour the market for frontline trade candidates, and hope we develop a stud in house. I just don't see us ever doling out major long term deals to a pitcher. Those consistently have the worst results in sports.
