Yeah, but can you fade Straw and Kemp at the same time in the same lineup? That seems... unlikely. What you are describing from Straw doesn't sound like a Marisnick replacement- more like a rich man's Tony Kemp? Does that comp work? The speed is exciting to me. If his glove is good I'd assume Jake's gone after this year- as his arb will get him a raise, he's out of options next year so they can't shuttle him down to Fresno to hide him, and Straw sounds like a solid replacement on the playoff 25, if nothing else, as a defense and base stealing guy when you can cut the pitching staff down from 13 dudes to 11 and play with an extra offensive specialist or two.
So is anyone else super excited about Yordan's power surge this year? We knew he had it in him, just needed it to start showing up in games. Perhaps he projects to a lefty Carlos Lee with more athleticism? Big dude who can mash and play LF if we need him to but really is better suited as a DH
Yordan Alvarez with another homer last night...... an opposite field homer (what a surprise). Finished with three hits. He is not hitting .331 with a slugging % of over .600 and an OPS of 1.000 His play has improved every month this year with his OPS going from .860 in April, to 1.100 in May and now 1.300 in June. He has 9 homers (should be 11) in 130 at bats this year. Yeah.... he might turn into something some day. Probably a good idea to hang onto him.
What does Tony Kemp have to do with Straw? You say play them in the same lineup like Marisnick has some value offensively.
I'm saying can you have 2 guys on the roster (in the OF) over the course of an entire season that don't hit the ball hard at all, with ISO's ~100. For all Jake's problems he can hit the ball hard and that's something to dream on if he gets on a roll. I have a hard time believing the Astros FO will roster 2 guys on the 25 man roster, for an entire year, that are totally and completely slappy. I could well be wrong. But that's where the question is coming from.
Not trying to stir the fire, but MLB.com itself says 50 is an average MLB player like Fangraphs and everyone else that uses the 20-80 scale. There is one 20-80 scale with variations based on personal preferences. Snake is right that he is grading prospects like MLB.com, but MLB.com gives out a lot more 50s than they should based on what they say a 50 is. In other words, MLB.com over rates players based on their description of the 20-80 scale (specifically low level prospects that they undervalue the risk). xcrunner is right that Nova should not be rated as a FV50 using the 20-80 scale as 50 is explicitly that of an average future value of an average MLB player.
Losing Marisnicks bat won't have anything to do with future callups, he has never been a not terrible hitter aside from running into a few HR's last season. Marisnick hitting a HR on occasion isn't providing enough value to offset the time he strikes out or hits the ball poorly. The bigger question for next season will be what the Astros do with the backup infielder situation. The Astros won't carry 5 pure outfielders, if we use Kemp and Bregman as a backup infielders, it creates room for both. If not, they won't. If both guys get on base at a high clip, being low power won't mean a damn thing.
There's no hole on this team big enough to require trading one of them. They probably have similar offensive ceilings, but Tucker provides more defense and baserunning ability.
Anything can happen, and when it is all said and done Tucker can prove to be the better baseball player. Having said that, I don't see how anyone that has seen both play over the last few years can conclude they both have similar offensive ceilings. Hitting is just easier for Alvarez and really injuries are the only thing that has slowed him down. As far as the fielding issue, long term Tucker is a better fielder (we hope) but right now Tucker isn't really doing all that well defensively. Alvarez long term may not be able to stay at a corner outfield spot because of his size. He moves very well for a man with his frame and build but has a hard time diving for balls. Speed wise, Alvarez is faster than Tucker right now. The assumption is that Alvarez will fill out and slow down while Tucker will remain thinner and more agile. Right now the only real knock on Alvarez is injury issues and fears that when he is a fully grown man, he will be too large for a corner outfield spot.
Alvarez’s ceiling is David Ortiz. Tucker’s is Christian Yelich. Both should be untouchable. And based on ceiling Alvarez is the better prospect. But I still think in terms of expected value Tucker should be ranked slightly higher.
Tucker is a minor league level above Alvarez and has a longer body of work so you can make a case that Tucker is safer. Tucker should become an adequate if not good outfielder... so I can see why someone would have that opinion. To me, I look at the hit tool and that is the most important indicator of success and Alvarez' is just better so I favor him more as a "sure thing"....... but injuries with Alvarez are a real concern.
Alvarez Because of Alvarez, I would really consider trading Tucker for Realmuto. I know that wont be popular with the prospect gurus around here.
You guys are catching me over a shitty couple of days where I’m refusing to let the idiot get the last word. Apologies to everybody who is probably getting annoyed at this pointless back and forth. Had his original response been “I think mlb.com systematically overrates prospects, so I think most of your grades are too high”, I would not have had an issue with that. But that wasn’t his ****ing response. His response was “George Springer was only a 40 so it’s stupid for you to rate Toro as a 50.” So all you’re doing is needlessly trying to defend someone who got caught being a wrong d******d. Id also like to point out that over the years Xcrunner and I have actually agreed more than we disagreed.
Alvarez is 22 & Tucker is 21. Tucker is hitting over .300 at Triple AAA and Alvarez is AS Well at Double AA. I think we know what Alvarez will be now, a guy who never really goes completely cold. Tucker looks like he is finally putting it together with some upside still left. I have Tucker 1A and Alvarez 1B. If neither is traded by opening season in 2019, how can Luhnow not have them making the roster if they rake on Spring Training next season.
At some point in time if you don't hit the ball with any authority it gets hard to get on base, as BA and OBP start to come together. If Tony Kemp is truly a .310 hitter than he can play without driving the ball in any way and an OBP of 350-370. If he's a 280 hitter as a true talent thing (which is my suspicion), and pitchers don't feel compelled to nibble at all, and he has an OBP of 330 then he becomes virtually unplayable with poor defense in the OF, weak arm, etc. Straw seems, to me, if his defense and basestealing ability is as good as advertised, to be the guy that takes the Marisnick spot on the roster that I assume will open up if Straw forces the issue onto the team. That leaves kemp out in the cold next year I'd think. My guess next year (if Kemp is legit) as to the 12 position players would be; Stassi/Stubbs (or FA catcher) Yuli Altuve Correa Bregman Reddick Springer Tucker Straw JD Davis Alvarez/White//Some FA bat My proposed lineup has 4 OF, a backup INF at the corners with Davis, and depending upon the last spot who knows. I could see them wanting to add a legit proven veteran bat in that last spot as I imagine that's the guy that will be the primary DH (maybe Davis). This gives them a chance to turn the roster over, get cheaper at the first half of the season, and if those guys don't work out and aren't ready to play to get a bat at the deadline. It's not like, missing one piece from April- July (if that's how it turns out) we will dig a hole with the overall strength of the rest of the roster. Under that scenario I don't see a place for Tony Kemp, or a need, but I could well be wrong. That's a stab 9 month out at roster construction when a metric crap ton of stuff could happen between now and then with injuries, player development etc. I think that's a payroll for your position players of $75 or $80 million in aggregate, which should leave 75-100 million for the pitching staff. The Astros have a chance next year to try to get both cheaper AND better if some of their guys hit, while saving some in the tank for deadline deals. Who knows man, the FO is really really good and I'm sure they've SWOTed it all in ways I can't comprehend. Be fun to see, but if they keep developing guys the way they have over the past 5-7 years it gets really fun for a really long time. To have 2 limited guys on the same roster seems unlikely to me.
Well, it depends on if you plan on re-signing Marwin and Gattis, doesn't it? If both those guys come back I guess you can say it's Tucker and Alvarez, but that means you won't have a defensive replacement guy in the OF, it means you won't have a speed guy anywhere, it means there isn't regular AB's or every day playing time for either of those guys as well. I mean, it could work out that they are both on the roster April 1st, but even if Marwin and Gattis walk I'd still doubt they both break camp with the big club, if for no other reason than no FO in their right mind would allow a top notch prospect to start on opening day if roster service time could be manipulated.
Ricardo Leon is now on the DSL roster. Christian Mejias was promoted to the GCL to make room. 2018 28th rd pick Joey Gonzalez is now on the GCL roster. There are still 12 2018 draftees who have reportedly signed but not been assigned to a roster yet. There are 3 roster slots available between TC and GCL. So still another handful of guys are likely to be released in the next 2 weeks. Franklin Pinto is now the only int'l signee not on a roster. Alex House and Hunter Martin are the only other 2 players in the system whose whereabouts are unknown; probably safe to assume they are rehabbing in Florida or have been released without an announcement.
My reply had nothing to do with the Springer ranking. As far as I can tell, MLB.com was not using the scale at that time. Based on draft spot, he was probably viewed as a 45 or a 50 right out of college. Not sure where xcrunner saw, thinks 40. That said, 50 has a specific meaning, average, in the 20-80 scale.
